You remember that marvelous book “Hitchhikers Guide To the Galaxy?” With its friendly admonition, “Don’t Panic?” Well, bear that feeling in mind, because we are going to go on a wild journey today, and this planet may turn into something else in the next few weeks. We don’t need the Vogons to show up, we’ve got the Republicans. Here’s the basic ground rule: We will know a lot between now and when the calendar turns to 11/9, but we will not be through — most likely. The important thing to bear in mind right now, election morning, is nobody knows anything. Charlie Sykes’ newsletter:
*It won’t be over tonight. Yes, it could be a blowout and we could all go to bed by 10 o’clock, but it’s also quite likely that we won’t know the outcome of some key races until tomorrow, maybe not for days. Legal challenges in key states could go on for weeks. And, remember, Georgia’s senate race (which could decide who controls the upper body) will be headed for a run-off if no one gets 50 percent of the vote.)
*Because some states — looking at you Wisconsin and Pennsylvania — intentionally delay the counting of mail-in votes, there may a “red mirage” again, followed by a surge of late-breaking Democratic votes. And you know what that means.
*There might be chaos. Remember, the election denialists have been warming up for two years — or more. Republicans are expecting a massive “Red Wave,” and if it doesn’t develop, expect “Stop the Steal Mid-term Edition.” Via Political Nightly (you should subscribe):
All the elements of a perfect storm are present: a rise in threats against election administrators and poll workers; outdated and overstrained election infrastructure; a brain drain of officials experienced with the complexities of administering elections; external cyber threats; and an abundance of close races that could extend long past Election Day as mail-in and provisional ballots are counted, recounted and litigated.
Then, there are the hundreds of Republican candidates up and down the ballot with a record of denying or expressing doubts about the 2020 presidential results — a few were even present at the Jan. 6 Capitol riot. At least a dozen candidates running in competitive Senate and governor and secretary of state contests refused to commit or declined to respond when asked whether they’ll accept the results of their races.
A blowout Republican victory might remove many of the most combustible elements. But short of a red wave Tuesday, we’re looking at an ugly finish.
I had some thoughts:
"This is not just going to be a one day affair… the overtime is going to be extraordinary because we've spent the last two years with Republicans ginning up and creating this machinery for election denial" – @SykesCharlie w/ @NicolleDWallace pic.twitter.com/mRZjmhXOBE
— Deadline White House (@DeadlineWH) November 8, 2022
Wisconsin and Pennsylvania are absolutely key. Make no mistake. Republicans are aggressively involved in efforts to invalidate ballots any way that they can. This is how dog dirty desperate things have gotten. Popular Information:
This is what is happening in Pennsylvania, where a close race between Lt. Governor John Fetterman (D) and celebrity doctor Mehmet Oz (R) could determine which party controls the U.S. Senate. The Republican National Committee (RNC) filed a petition directly with the Pennsylvania Supreme Court to prevent county election officials in Pennsylvania from counting mail-in ballots received on time from legal voters.
Pennsylvania allows anyone to vote by mail. But a “voter seeking to vote by mail must complete an application and have their identity and qualifications verified.” This can include “a Pennsylvania driver’s license number or the last four digits of the voter’s social security number.” After the county board determines a voter is eligible, “it sends a mail-ballot package that contains a ballot, a ‘secrecy envelope’ marked with the words ‘Official Election Ballot,’ and the pre-addressed outer return envelope, on which a voter declaration form is printed.”
Voters who receive a mail-in ballot can return it, by mail or in person, up until 8 PM on Election Day. To return a ballot, voters are instructed to “fill out, date and sign the declaration” printed on the return envelope. The RNC is suing to prevent county election officials from counting ballots from voters that: 1. Applied for a ballot and were deemed eligible, 2. Fills out the ballot, 3. Signs the declaration, 4. Returns the ballot on time, 5. Does not include a handwritten date on the outer envelope.
The RNC does not claim that voters that do not write a date on the ballot are ineligible. Rather, in its filing, known as a King’s Bench petition, the RNC admits that the “date requirement has nothing to do with whether the individual satisfies the four qualifications to vote in Pennsylvania.”
The date itself is meaningless because whether or not the ballot is received on time is established by an official date stamp by the local election board. The RNC says these ballots must be disregarded anyway because they fail to meet the technical requirements of the mail-in voting law.
Voting rights advocates counter that discarding ballots that lack a superfluous handwritten date violates the Materiality Provision of the Civil Rights Act. That provision states: “No person acting under color of law shall… deny the right of any individual to vote in any election because of an error or omission… if such error or omission is not material in determining whether such individual is qualified.”
The Pennsylvania Supreme Court considered the arguments and could not reach a final decision on the merits. Three Justices said that counting the ballots would violate the Materiality Provision, and three Justices said it would not. (The Pennsylvania Supreme Court currently has six Justices because Chief Justice Max Baer died last month.) Nevertheless, the court ordered county board of elections “to refrain from counting any absentee and mail-in ballots received for the November 8, 2022 general election that are contained in undated or incorrectly dated outer envelopes.” Instead, the court ordered county officials to “segregate and preserve” such ballots.
The piece goes on to say that about 7,000 ballots statewide have been already been flagged for missing a date or similar issues. When you consider that the polls have Oz as close as 0.1% ahead of Fetterman, 7,000 ballots is a lot. 700 ballots is a lot, on these facts.
Republicans, in a revealing move, “also sued to block counties from notifying voters who neglected to date their ballots to give them the chance to fix them.” On Monday, a Pennsylvania court rejected a request for an injunction from the Monroe County Republican Committee, seeking to stop the Monroe County Board of Election from notifying voters about issues with their mail-in ballots. So the status quo is that it is up to each county, which means not all voters will be given notice of the error and an opportunity to fix their ballots.
This is terrifying. Yes, I know I said, “Don’t Panic.” And I meant it. We have to go through this step by step. We are emphatically not going to have all the ballots from Wisconsin and Pennsylvania because of existing laws that mandate that they do not begin counting mail-ins until after election day. That’s a certainty.
There may be a red mirage. That will make things ugly, to be sure.
Another possibility is that the chips will fall in such a way that as crucial as those two Senate seats are in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, there may be a surge of voters at the polls which renders the mail-in ballots not as important. Or, races may break in the Democrats’ favor in other states and those two races may not loom as menacingly as they do now. We don’t know.
The cake is baked. Unfortunately, the GOP is going to try to convince you that there’s a bomb in the cake and run out the door with it, any way they can. Charlie Sykes said, “Short of a red wave Tuesday, we’re looking at an ugly finish.” I think we’re looking at an ugly finish in any event. This could end up being a monumental election.
Stay tuned.
I’d rather have the Vogons. Poetry and all.
“So Long, and Thanks for All the Fish.”
Somebody had to say it.