Yesterday another canary hit the bottom of Trump’s birdcage. Traitor Tot sewed up the nomination in March, and the last viable challenger, Nikki Haley dropped out nine weeks ago. Trump is on the glide path to the nomination.
So why, with all of those other factors already known, dud 1 out of every 5 Hoosiers still go into the booth and pull the lever for Nikki Haley? That’s right, Haley got 20% of the vote. Hell, in some GOP suburban strongholds, her haul was as high as 32-35%. And it isn’t just Indiana, Haley’s haul has been consistent throughout the primaries, even after she dropped out.
Look, right now 10-12% of Biden primary voters are voting undeclared instead. But there’s a reason for that. They’re not saying that they won’t vote for Biden in November, they’re trying to light a fire under the administration’s ass to change their policy on Israel and Gaza. They’re making a statement. But Traitor Tot has no administration, and no policies or governance plans. The Haley protest voters are not trying to make a point. What they’re doing is flipping Trump double barrel birds. They’re done, and he’s toast.
And El Pendejo Presidente has nobody to blame but himself. After all, Familiarity breeds contempt. For the last nine long years, there is no more contemptable of a pig that not just the United States, but the entire world has become so familiar with. And that’s because Trump’s gigantic ego requires that he and he alone be under the brightest spotlight. Trump’s ego and thirst for glory were so overpowering that he almost immediately stomped all over his few accomplishments by trampling everybody else out of the way. And his never ending scandals really were never ending, since his imbecilic attempts at damage control only kept digging the holes bigger.
Personally, I wrote Trump’s political epitaph shortly after the 2020 election was called for Biden, and I haven’t changed my mind. For one simple reason. Most informed voters cast their ballots for two reasons in some kind of a blend. They vote for a combination of their own self interest, and in order to make a point.
Which brings us to 2018. In 2016, Russian help notwithstanding, Il Douche was powered by a bloc of low propensity democratic, GOP, and Independent voters who took a chance on change. By 2018 they were already long gone, victims of trump fatigue, and sick of the juvenile drama queen bullsh*t.
Which left the moderate GOP base, especially white suburban women voters and their spouses. And in 2018 they sent a message, and the message was Enough of the racist, sexist, nihilistic misogynistic bullsh*t! They empowered a 40 seat blue tsunami in the House that ensured that Trump spent his last two lame duck years fighting off impeachment hearings and trials. One would think the message was received.
If so, then how do you explain 2020. Trump was back on the ballot. But the soft Democratic, GOP, and Independent voters either sat this one out, or voted for Biden. But white suburban women GOP voters came out in force with another message, NO MORE TRUMP! They voted for more traditional GOP down ballot races, but either voted for Biden, or left the top slot blank. As a result Trump lost by more than double his losing margin in 2016.
In 2022, Glorious Bleater was a memory, although still already running for the 2024 nomination. So another message had to be sent, and this time the white suburban women voters were putting the GOP on notice. The Democrats kept the Senate, and the GOP garnered such a puny majority in the House they would be incapable of governing. The message was twofold, NO MORE TRUMP, and BIPARTISANSHIP! What the hell, Biden and the Democrats with an identical or smaller margin did it for two years.
I am struck by the last two lines of the iconic Don McLean ballad Vincent, They would not listen, they’re not listening still. Perhaps they never will. How many damn times do the same voters have to keep sending the same damn message. The soft Democratic, GOP, and Independent Trump voters of 2016 were gone by 2018, and they’re sure as hell not coming back now. Moderate suburban white GOP women voters warned the GOP in 2018, bounced Trump’s sorry ass to the curb in 2020, and issued another stern warning to the GOP in 2022. NO MORE TRUMP! It’s time to start the reclamation project that Reince Priebus wanted to begin with the 2012 Autopsy report in 2013.
Most analysts and pundits claim that this election more than most others will be decided by the thinnest of margins in that narrow mushy middle in a handful of swing states. I respectfully disagree. from where I’m sitting, and what I see, the battle for 2024 has already been fought, and trump lost it.Â
In 2024 Trump has his worst nightmare, Nikki Haley. Haley is the GOP’s 2024 version of Bernie Sanders in 2016. In 2016, the younger, more progressive voters were sick to death of voting for the same old white dudes every four years, they demanded a younger, more progressive power structure in the party itself. And while Bernie Sanders was another old white dude, he was the farthest left progressive the party had, so he became their rallying point for change. And while once it was decided Sanders went balls-to-the-wall for Clinton, some never stopped blaming the whiny Bernie Bro’s for the loss.
Haley had a built in advantage, since she isn’t an old white dude. Instead she’s the highly successful two term Governor of a deep red southern state, and the former US Ambassador to the United Nations. But here’s the critical difference. While Haley was never in a realistic position to actually win the 2024 primaries, she was in the perfect position to do exactly what she’s done, and continues to do. send yet another message with her solid 20% vote share, The current iteration and ideology of the GOP is incapable of winning a national election. The days of the old guard are coming to a rapid end.
Haley is making a purely political calculation, and I think she’s nailing it. 2024 is out of reach, but it’s a necessary coupe de grace for the MAGA wing of the party. And by being the only moderate to go toe-to-toe with Trump and openly criticize him, she has earned a solid 20% and put herself in place as the face of the new moderate wing of the updated GOP. Especially if Traitor Tot gets clobbered in November, Haley is looking towards a new presidential field filled with people like herself, Jeff Flake, Bob Corker and Will Hurd. Watch for a whole slew of new memoirs coming to a bookseller near you soon.
Here’s why I say that the 2024 election is likely already over. It is true that most elections are decided in critical swing states and districts within the margin of error. But this is not a normal election cycle. Popularity polls show Trump running far behind Biden, he isn’t just unpopular, he’s hated by the majority of the country. Biden has his flaws, but people don’t tend to actively hate him.
The rest is a simple matter of math and numbers. Nikki Haley has a rock solid 20% base, and they’re not going anywhere, otherwise why vote for her in the first place. Even if half of them come home in November, that’s still 10% of the GOP voting base either sitting out, or voting for RFK Jr. or Biden, and that’s fatal in a razor thin race.
But there’s more. In November, in the critical swing states of Nevada, Arizona, Ohio, and Florida, you have abortion rights initiatives on the ballot. Pro abortion initiatives have run the table since the Supreme court overturned Roe. Add to that the fact that there are a slew of pro MAGA retreads on statewide and national races in those states. With the expected surge in pro choice voters hitting the ballot boxes, the last thing the GOP can afford is to have even 10% of those Haley voters either sitting out or voting democratic. Personally, properly funded by the national party and grassroots fundraising, I’m not ready to take either Ohio or Florida off of the board this early.
Especially Florida, and here’s why. Florida already has a law on the books that requires that citizen ballot initiatives receive 60% of the vote to pass. This could be a death knell for the GOP for two reasons. First, the organizers are already well aware of that extra 10% hurdle, and will be beating the bushes to scrape out every last YES vote. The Haley bloc could be critical there. Second, several years ago, with the 60% law in place, there was an initiative to restore voting rights to non violent criminals who had completed their sentences, parole, and/or probation. It passed with 73% approval. With the human Skeletor Rick Scott in a dogfight, I’m not giving up on Florida yet either.
What goes around comes around. In 2013 Reince Priebus eagerly wanted to put the Autopsy Report plan into motion, using exactly the disaffected 20% Haley vote to anchor the new party while it disengaged from the Klansmen and refried Jesus wheezers. It was estimated that it would take two federal election cycles to complete the transition. Instead they settled for Trump. And now any transition can’t start until at least 2025, and will likely take even longer as they fumigate the remaining MAGA members. Don’t touch that dial.
I thank you for the privilege of your time.
By all means Nikki, get yourself qualified as a write in candidate in all 50 states and give it a run…….if anything, it will give you some credible chops AND set you up as the Republican front runner in 2028 when there is no incumbent President.
There’s no such thing as being “qualified as a write in candidate.” As an “independent” candidate on the ballot, where her name actually appears, yes, she would need to be “qualified”–unfortunately, a lot of states also have “sore loser” laws which means if you were on a party’s primary ballot and you lose that party’s primaries, you’re barred from appearing on the general election ballot under another party’s banner or as an independent.
Hillary won’t want to temp fate by thinking about it too much, but you just KNOW she’s thought about what type of gift to have delivered Haley should things unfold the way you predict. (I think your prediction is on solid footing btw)