Trump’s Slide Continues, Harris “Trending”

National poll averaging firm FiveThirtyEight.com now shows that Kamala Harris has opened up a 1.7% lead on Donald Trump, an improvement in just two weeks over the 3.2% deficit President Joe Biden suffered before he stepped down to allow Harris to take over the ticket. This almost 5% turnaround in the polling in favor of Harris does not even take into account today’s expected unveiling of a VP candidate by the Democrat, an event (if you are not picking JD Vance) that traditionally nets the campaign a couple of additional points. Other polling, such as the YouGuv-Economist poll and even Rasmussen reflect 538’s findings, leading the survey to conclude that these changes do not result from a “bump” but is rather consistent with a long term trend.

MSN.com

”It has now been two weeks since Joe Biden withdrew from the 2024 presidential race and endorsed Kamala Harris as his presumptive replacement as Democratic nominee. Unsurprisingly, Harris got a quick bounce in the polls as the new, younger, and fresher rival to Donald Trump. But now it’s becoming clear this is a trend, not just a momentary bounce.

According to the FiveThirtyEight national polling averages, Harris is leading Trump by 1.7 percent (45.3 to 43.5 percent), with Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at 5.5 percent. When Biden dropped out, he was trailing in the same averages by 3.2 percent. In a contest as static as the 2024 presidential race had been, that’s a big swing.

The trend lines in national polls are equally telling. YouGov-Economist tested Harris against Trump back on July 16, showing Trump leading by 5 percent (44 to 39 percent). Then ,on July 23, after Biden’s withdrawal, the same pollster had Trump leading Harris by 3 percent (44 to 41 percent). On July 30, YouGov-Economist showed Harris leading Trump by 2 percent (46 to 44 percent). Similarly, RMG Research had Trump leading Harris by two points (48 to 46 percent) on July 23, with Harris leading Trump by five points (47 to 42 percent) on July 31. And now a CBS poll of likely voters conducted by YouGov shows a three-point Trump lead (51 to 48 percent) on July 18 turning into a one-point Harris lead (50 to 49 percent) on August 2.”

These changes reflect the fact, I believe, that Trump is not popular outside his base of voters, and though able to remain competitive with a proposed Democratic nominee that many voters perceived as to old to take on another term, is losing ground to the younger, more vigorous Harris.

“Most recently, and perhaps impressively, Bloomberg–Morning Consult has released a new batch of seven battleground-state polls taken from July 24–28. Overall, they showed Harris leading Trump by one percent (48 to 47 percent), as compared to a two-point Trump lead over Biden in early July. The individual state gains by Harris were also striking: She led by 2 percent (49 to 47 percent) in Arizona, a real problem state for Biden; by 2 percent (47 to 45 percent) in Nevada; by 2 percent (49 to 47 percent) in Wisconsin; and by an astonishing 11 percent (53 to 42 percent) in Michigan. Harris was tied with Trump in Georgia at 47 percent, and she trailed him by 2 percent (46 to 48 percent) in North Carolina and by 4 percent (46 to 50 percent) in Pennsylvania.

Three battleground states have enough post-Biden-Harris-switch polling now for FiveThirtyEight to compile averages, and all of them show very close races. In Georgia, Trump leads by 1.1 percent (45.9 to 44.8 percent), but Harris leads in Michigan by 1.8 percent (44.8 to 43.1 percent) and most surprisingly, in Pennsylvania by 0.4 percent (45.1 to 44.6 percent).

There is also significant evidence that Harris is doing better than Biden among the young, Black, and Latino voting categories on which Biden’s 2020 win depended. In the most recent Times-Siena poll, she leads Trump among under-30 likely voters by 59 percent to 38 percent, among Black likely voters by 72 percent to 19 percent, and among Latino likely voters by 60 percent to 36 percent. A new Axios–Generation Lab poll of 18- to 34-year-old voters showed Harris expanding a six-point Biden lead (53 percent to 47 percent) to 20 points (60 percent to 40 percent). The very latest likely voter survey from CBS-YouGov shows Harris at over 60 percent among under-30 voters, and over 80 percent among Black voters. And a new large-sample survey of Latino voters in Arizona, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia, and North Carolina from BSP Research shows Harris leading Trump by a robust 55 – 37 percent margin.“

Trump campaign efforts such as the one below with right wing idiot-influencer and chair-sniffer Adin Ross, whom Trump claims was recommended by his son Barron, will do little to change these numbers…

This is how Trump thinks he’s going to win the election. By insulting the Gov of GA, his wife, the Lt Gov and the Sec of State, insulting black journalists, then accepting a Rolex & dancing with this chud with a tie down to his knees. Talking to his own shrinking base. pic.twitter.com/PTOTKB0Mv8

— Ron Filipkowski (@RonFilipkowski) August 5, 2024

Idiot

Donald Trump is currently doing an interview with this person https://t.co/0d1EImJf8P

— MeidasTouch (@MeidasTouch) August 5, 2024

Eeew…

If this trend for Harris continues through the convention, and with Ross’ help I don’t see why it shouldn’t, I expect her to grow her lead to four or five points afterward.

Then we’ll really see a Trump meltdown.

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