I developed a free site to keep track of upcoming elections, and on the US House pages, I included a section on the number of Republican and Democratic leavers. I was updating it at the weekend when I was struck by how steadily both lists were expanding. I heard in my mind the opening line of a famous Australian poem, “There was movement at the station…” It didn’t quite fit the situation I was seeing, so I rewrote the first four lines:
There is movement on the Hill, and word has spread about
That Reps from both the parties would away
To claim retirement pensions – they’re worth a huge amount,
Rather than remain and face the fray.
The verse is very much a generalisation; the real story behind the numbers isn’t so simple. While the length of each list of leavers remains close (21 Democrats and 24 Republicans), the patterns for each party are markedly different, reflecting a distinct difference in their departure stories.
First, there’s a particular divergence that makes a difference to the actual numbers when comparing the two parties, and it’s based on intention. Unlike the Republicans, three Democrats in the list did not set out to vacate their House seats. For Representatives Sylvester Turner, Gerry Connolly and Raúl Grijalva, it happened as a consequence of their deaths. That detail reduces the Democratic list to 18 when we’re comparing only those who choose to move on.
The number of Democrats choosing to retire at the conclusion of their current terms is not only the largest group on their side of the list, it’s also the fastest-growing. The interesting feature of this group is their ages. Let’s look at that.
For all those complaining about Dem oldies being in Congress too long, they hear you! Except for Jared Golden, for whom age was not a factor, the other nine are looking forward to relaxing and enjoying their sunset years at a slower pace.
It would not surprise me at all if this number were to increase. An idea becomes action in proportion to its increasing acceptance. In large enough numbers, it can quickly become the norm.
In contrast, only four Republicans have announced imminent retirement.
Age is not a factor in this short list. Republicans Hal Rogers (85), John Carter (83) and Virginia Foxx (82) exceed Don Bacon by 20 years, but none have indicated that retirement is on their personal agendas.
Incidentally, of the four Republicans listed as resigning before the 2026 Midterms, Michael Waltz resigned to take up a position in the Circus Executive, Mark Green chucked it in because he was fed up with the GOP conference, Marge Greene will join them on January 5, and Troy Nehls will finish up at the end of his term on December 31, 2026.
Where Republican numbers bulge is in the combined categories of seeking other offices. One is throwing himself into the Texas AG contest, six are aiming for the Senate, and eleven want to be Governor of their states. That’s eighteen in total.
In contrast, only one Democrat is vying for a gubernatorial position, and six for Senate seats. A grand total of 7.
Why are so many Republicans seeking other offices (almost three times as many as Democrats)? It’s because they’re desperate to get out of the US House and the suffocating domination of the clown administration via their elf-on-a-shelf puppet, Johnson. Their future scenario is even worse.
The story here is told in short sentences and set in big print.
They’re gonna lose the midterms.
Many will lose their nice seats with benefits.
The rest doan wanna be in the minority forever.
Some will face legal accountability.
Desperate situations call for desperate measures, but Republicans don’t have much in the way of creative imagination (delusions don’t count); therefore, thinking outside the box isn’t an option for them. So far, it’s either stay or seek another elected office.
But they should be thinking about retirement on a generous government pension as an option, too. Will Marge Greene’s resignation be a tipping point? Troy Nehls joined the prospective leavers immediately following Thanksgiving. Will others follow? According to Punchbowl News, insider sources are reporting that it’s just a matter of time.
Eleven months out from the 2026 Midterms, there are already 40 members of the US House (46 – 3 deceased – 2 who’ve left already) on the Leavers list. That’s 9.5% of the current membership, and it’s just the beginning. You can be sure I will continue to track the numbers and will report back to you as both parties add more chapters to the stories being written.
NB: A note regarding the feature image. I directed AI to blur the faces so none could be identified. Unfortunately, its idea of blurring is closer to disfiguration, so the closest faces appear to have endured a terrible fate under the knife of a drunken plastic surgeon. I left it as is because it seems apt in some ways…!
Follow me at Blue Sky: @michelleelle.bsky.social
Minor nitpick, Michelle:
“Marge Greene will join them on February 5 after securing her pension.”
I believe that date is JANUARY 5. That’s what I’ve seen elsewhere. January 5 is when the next session of the current Congress will formally convene. The date that Congress begins a session is actually January 3 but that falls on a Saturday in 2026 so when the date falls on a Saturday or Sunday, the date is typically moved to the following Monday (this change, by the way, is not a given but it does tend to be tradition; a new session can start on a Saturday or even Sunday but it’s generally agreed by all members prior to the usual December adjournment to start the new business on the Monday after a Sat/Sun January 3).
Thank you! See full reply to you below.
Thank you! Damn! Yes, of course it’s January 5, and thanks to you, I’ve corrected the mistake.
February 5 is the special election primary to replace Mikie Sherrill. I’d only just added the special election dates to the “Keep It Blue” page. My old lady memory was recalling the wrong 5th!
Thank you, too, for the additional information on the opening of the 119th Congress’s Second Session. That’s very handy to know. It also means Marge won’t have to turn up at all in 2026… unless she plans to put in an appearance on the 5th to give a final speech. It would be just like her, wouldn’t it!
“unless she plans to put in an appearance on the 5th to give a final speech. It would be just like her, wouldn’t it!”
There’d probably be a black market for ticket to that one