I’m going to go out on a limb here, but the limb is very large and solid. It’s simple arithmetic. We ooh and aah over the prognostications of political pundits. They’re not like Carnac the magician, holding an envelope to their heads, they’re doing the math.

Ergo, let’s do the math on the Nevada Senate race between Adam Laxalt and Catherine Cortez Masto. It has been teeter tottering for two days now. First CCM was leading. Then the rural votes came in. She got crushed and Laxalt took a big lead.

Now we’re down to mail in ballots from Clark and Washoe Counties (Las Vegas and Reno) and those are Democratic strongholds.

At the time of writing this post, CCM trails Laxalt 49.4 to 47.6. But you have seen the math and she does have a path to victory.

Adam Laxalt is an election denier, so who knows what he will pull when and if he loses. We don’t know. We don’t know what Kari Lake will do either, if she loses, or Lauren Boebert.

As to those races, Lake is trailing Hobbs at 49.7 to 50.03 with 70% of the vote counted.

And Boebert is leading by 386 votes as of 10:15 a.m. PST. The last 5% of the votes are being counted, it is too close to call. Alas. I would love nothing more than to see this woman go down in flames, as well you know.

But the good news, if indeed Catherine Cortez Masto can retain her seat, and Mark Kelly is able to retain his (he’s leading by four points) then game over. That leaves only the Walker/Warnock debacle. And while certainly the only just outcome is Warnock retaining his seat, if the worse comes to the worse and that CTE-addled wife beater is elected to the upper chamber of congress, at least he won’t be handing Mitch McConnell the gavel back.

As stated, I feel safe calling the Nevada seat for Catherine Cortez Masto, based upon Jon Ralston’s figures. If I’m wrong, I’m wrong. Politics is a strange game. The only thing to be sure of that there’s nothing to be sure of.

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  1. I agree Ursula. This is what I thought when I looked at a map of Nevada, most of the votes left will be blue based purely on where they are in the big city.

    But, talking of big cities, WTF has happened in New York? Are the Dems there so corrupt that they’ve risked the house for the rest? Someone needs to bolster AOC and the non-corrupt, and cut out the rot.

    • In all honesty I’m not sure what’s going on with New York or California. And I agree the DNC needs to plan for the future. But for now, if the worse outcome we get is a single digit GOP majority in the House, great. I’m all for it. Keeping the Senate is the important thing and I honestly believe we will. I hope I’m not apologizing for being wrong in a few days but if I am, I am. We can only share the best information available and this is it.

      • You sure the pundits and prognosticators aren’t doing the Carnac the Magician thing Ursula? Their “math” created a red tsunami out of nothing so I’m thinking maybe it was an envelope to the head.

    • “Are the Dems there so corrupt that they’ve risked the house for the rest?”
      I’m from New York, and I think the answer to your question is probably yes. Though I doubt they ever thought of it that way, that would require thinking of others besides themselves.

      • Hi Pris. Nah, I don’t think you’re right, and of course I have no idea if what I wrote below is right (I can’t emphasize enough, below are just uneducated considerations of mine) but I truly do not think you’re right. EVERYTHING in NY politics is corrupt, EVERYWHERE. I don’t think that would affect anything because for New Yorkers (and even though I’m Canadian and live in Montreal, I’ve worked in the Massena-Potsdam-Plattsburgh area for 30 years! and am there EVERY week) corruption is just baked into the cake and everyone knows it and has long since ceased to care. It’s their corruption or ours, but it’s just known and accepted by all parties. No, in my humble and uneducated opinion, this was a combination of the Jews hating what they see as Democrats becoming too anti-semitic, and a general Conservative bent coming out now for reasons I could not possibly guess at, though it has always been there (I have friends in those areas and am in those areas often).

  2. Ok, this is NOT “the answer” but I will proffer a potential thought (and its no more than a mere “thought”)on Dems. New York is still a pretty conservative State, it’s not as blue as everyone thinks who doesn’t live or work here, knows. And also, those places where we got creamed, pretty Jewish some of them. Jews HATE!!!!!! AOC. As I’ve said on this site before, Jew-Hate (of which AOC is a major proponent) is neither new nor “progressive”. AOC, Ilhan “racist-bitch” Omar, Rashida “same epithet” Tlaib, Cory Bush, are NOT progressive. As major proponents of a 2,000 year old hatred, they are as regressive as can be. And all the Jews I know, HATE them!! And I mean HATE!!! So even though they couldn’t vote on AOC, they were still making a statement about her and her ilk. That’s how I see it. Am I right? Who knows, but its just one person who knows NY pretty well’s thoughts.

  3. Corruption in New York could be called endemic, and equally practiced by both major parties.

    As a youth in 1950s Manhattan, I learned of Democratic Party machine politics reading newspaper stories about Tammany Hall; the organization disbanded in 1967, after a number of convictions, while I was on active duty in Korea.

    For the past 50 years, we’ve been located in Nassau County, Long Island, about 100 yards from the NY City line. The Nassau County Repub machine could be the reincarnation of Tammany Hall; a number of former Town and County executives, along with the wife of a County exec were charged and convicted during the past year, all Repubs.

    Statewide, high-ranking officers from both pa
    rties have been brought up on charges, most notably Joe Bruno, former State Senate Repub Majority Leader, convicted in 2009, retried and acquitted on appeal; Sheldon Silver, Dem Speaker of the State Assembly, convicted in 2015, retried on appeal, convicted again, some charges dropped on a second appeal, and finally imprisoned; Repub Sen. Alfonse D’Amato’s brother was convicted of mail fraud in the 1990s for lobbying from his brother’s office using office stationery, with Senator Al signing the documents, later claiming ignorance of what he was signing, which led to a Senate ethics investigation and a closed-door Senate session, possibly involving censure (we’ll never know).

    Then there’s the redistricting: after the 2020 census: the Dem-controlled legislature gerrymandered the map so blatantly that the issue wound up in court, with the legislature’s intransigence resulting more competitive districts for both federal and state offices.

    Plenty of other examples of corruption in the Empire State, yet I’m not moving…


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