Let’s face it. The Unites States sucks at regime change and/or propping up governments WE want to run other countries. To be fair that’s true of most countries, even dictatorships but for democracies it’s damned near impossible to de facto rule another country without our own puppet dictator. Think the Shaw of Iran, or Marcos in the Philippines for example. Not to mention Iraq and Afghanistan! Yet that’s what we’re facing in Venezuela but Trump is going to try. He wants that oil. The problem is he’s facing all kinds of problems from a populace and well-armed non-government actors that will make protecting oil production and the workers dangerous as hell.
I’ve said here on Politizoom and Ursula has too that we’re looking at a combination of Iraq/Afghanistan and Vietnam. Venezuela is ripe for insurgency and has numerous groups ready to provide it. Only us old farts remember how difficult it was for our forces in Vietnam, fighting in jungle and mountain terrain covered with greenery. But now I ask you to think about a couple of decades of fighting (and failing to gain or maintain control) in the cities and deserts of Iraq, and the mountains and valley’s of Afghanistan, then imagine trying to protect the oil production and internal transportation (to the coast) infrastructure in places surrounded by mountains and all manner of thick vegetation that can hide attacking forces!
That’s something this article from The Independent explains in pretty clear terms. I beg you to read it, then contact your Senators and Representatives to tell them about it. Hell, print it out and fax it to their offices in DC! If enough people do so staff won’t be able to ignore it and will HAVE to clue in their bosses. The linked article starts off pointing out the obvious, which history teaches us often gets overlooked. In theory we’ve installed a successor to Maduro as what Trump assumes will be a subservient has been sworn in, moving up from VP to President of Venezuela. However she heads a government that has never been supported by the people. We’ve created a power vacuum. If history is any guide (as Merlin warns King Arthur and the Knights “It is the doom of men that they forget”) when a dictator falls rival factions fight to replace him/her.
Sometimes there is a clear strongman (or, in rare cases woman) who has much more power and armed fighters to consolidate power although it’s usually a bloody time no matter what. However as ugly as the fighting between them gets, in a sense they are like brothers. All of us have seen the spectacle of brother beating the living sh*t out of each other to the point of drawing blood. Yet if someone else try to take on either/any of them separately they will face both or all of them! So it tends to be with rival factions fighting for control when a dictator falls. An uneasy truce gets agreed to so they can collectively take on any OUTSIDERS who try to exploit the situation. Like say a country who deposed their dictator to satisfy their own agenda. Like gaining control of the country’s major resource/industry.
Everyone in Venezuela knows the hated “Yankees” as in United States wants control of their oil reserves which are arguably the largest known ones in the world. Hell, Trump himself was bluntly saying so on Saturday as Maduro was still getting processed into a U.S. prison. In the meantime the fighting to be the group/new dictator to say “Hell NO!” is already starting:
Venezuela could face violent instability following the shock capture of President Nicolas Maduro by the US military, experts have warned.
While Maduro’s vice president Delcy Rodriguez was quickly sworn in with US-backing, there are fears a political vacuum sets the stage for a power struggle among multiple heavily armed factions that could spark an insurgency.
Insurgency. Gee, ya think? Some things we can be sure will happen. The sun will rise in the east and set in the west every day. Trump will lie and say/do dumbass things. And that if we try to install anyone even perceived as a U.S. puppet to run Venezuela there will be an insurgency. Just as bad, history teaches us even the most powerful countries have proven incapable of truly defeating an insurgency. In the end, after lots of blood and treasure has been spent a deal gets cut and the country that tried to impose it’s will against that insurgency has to feed its own citizens sh*t sandwiches.
Like Baby Bush and his neocons there’s a belief in this administration that oodles of oil are sitting there for the taking. Just send in U.S. oil companies to rebuild some ageing infrastructure and bada-bing-bada-boom we’ll be swimming in oil. (Hey Trumpty – will it be ‘beautiful’ ‘clean oil’) Experts are saying not so fast:
“Venezuela is primed for violent resistance to the US controlling the oil,” says Robert Pape, a professor at the University of Chicago’s political science department and director of the Chicago Project on Security Threats, saying it is the “perfect terrain for insurgency. Chaos is coming.”
“Today, Venezuela hosts numerous armed groups, including colectivos who are pro-government militias used for repression, Colombian guerrillas like the ELN and remnants of FARC, major criminal networks like Tren de Aragua and elements of the Venezuelan Military operating semi-autonomously,” Prof Pape explained.
Allow me to point something out. Venezuela has a decent sized military. Once upon a time it was well equipped and trained but unlike some dictators Maduro didn’t do much to keep it that way. Officers are lazy and corrupt (much like they were in Vietnam) and rank and files troops have been poorly paid and gotten little training for years. THAT is why we had so few casualties in the snatch mission. A bunch of ill-trained, demoralized Venezuelan troops equipped with old, rusting Russian equipment couldn’t have fought back and say mounted anti-aircraft fire even if they wanted to. Maduro knew this which is why he had a halfway decent trained and equipped contingent of Cuban army forces for security.
However, as is always the case in narco states there are experienced, reasonably well equipped and ruthless para-military groups that will sell their services to whomever pays enough. Not to mention the biggest, baddest drug lords have personal armies loyal only to them who get well paid and well treated to ensure their loyalty. Such groups are often more than a match for their country’s actual military. And that’s the case in Venezuela. The experts in the linked article admit the actual number of those who could and would fight an insurgency is ‘murkey’ but it surely collectively numbers in the tens of thousands. More than enough to cost us dearly both in treasure and blood
In addition to being reasonably well equipped and experienced and possessing an “exquisite local knowledge of the terrain” (more on that in a minute) they are experienced at truly brutal fighting. If you thought the people who fought us in Iraq and Afghanistan were bad and displayed shocking lack of willingness to follow the ‘rules’ of war you ain’t seen nothing. No, we are talking more like what LE sees in town in say Mexico along major drug transportation routes:
“While drug cartels are often as well-equipped as paramilitary groups, they are used to guerrilla warfare and using extreme violence as an intimidation factor,” says analyst Adam Cochran.
“They don’t apply the regular rules of war or the rules for enemy combatants. To them, everything is a target, any moment is an acceptable time to strike, and any action that sends the clearest message is prioritized. Cartels don’t take Prisoners of War.”
He warns that the brutality of such criminal gangs would be extreme.
“If they capture American soldiers, they would send pieces of them back to the US base as a warning,” he says. “That kind of asymmetric brutality is not something the US military is prepared for.
To say our military isn’t prepared for what cartels in particular would do to captured U.S. troops doesn’t begin to cover it. These are people who will cut off fingers and even limbs, take photos of them next to a picture of the face and dog-tags of the victim and mail various parts to their relatives here in the U.S., their Congress Critters and of course to news outlets. Hmmmm. I wonder if the administration refused to comment CBS News’s Bari Weiss would allow her people to report THAT story. Never mind because there’s another issue I want to highlight.
Unlike Iraq where oil production facilities and pipelines sit mostly in flat desert terrain with virtually nothing for would be attackers to hide in Venezuela is another matter entirely. Take a good look at the title picture. And that’s of a fairly decently sized and constructed production facility. I thought about using one of a few small pumps in a muddy clearing, not unlike those single pumps one could see along the highway in southern Illinois where I grew up. Talk about easy targets! Anyway my point it what you see behind that lovely facility. Rows of mountains, covered with trees and other vegetation. If you can’t secure such areas, then production facilities, as well as pipelines and roads between them and the coast can easily be attacked.
Prof Pape, who has studied every US effort at regime change since the Cold War, says there is “virtually no chance” that the US can control Venezuela’s oil in a meaningful way due firstly to these armed groups and secondly because of the difficult terrain surrounding its oil sources.
“US forces have previously struggled in unfamiliar territory including the mountains of Afghanistan and in Vietnam,” he continues.
“It is the perfect terrain for insurgency and terrorism, with mountains, heavy forests, narrow urban streets that offer a multitude of easily concealed areas for guerrilla forces to hide and conduct ‘hit and run’ operations against US Marines and civilian contractors necessarily stationed and working in predictable locations.”
NOW do you get it? Prior to what Bush started in the middle east Vietnam was our longest war. At one point we had upwards of a half-million troops operating out of facilities that cost (collectively) tens of billions even back then. And we STILL couldn’t control the countryside! We are told oil executives are going to be having a pow-wow at the White House on Friday. Trump (and Rubio) will do their song and dance and dangle visions of not sugar but ‘money-plums’ about all that oil just sitting there. It’s ready for the taking Trumpty/Rubio will say, it just needs some U.S. expertise and investment to bring the production and transport infrastructure back to a certain level of reliability.
Oh how I hope there are some old farts in that meeting. Or at least on the Boards of Directors when the oil barrons get back home and ask for approval to spend a boatload of money upfront. (Btw if they believe Trump’s promises about reimbursing them I say it’s a sucker’s bet) They got similar promises about Iraq and we saw how that turned out. Or perhaps more accurately didn’t. Then like me they will think of Vietnam and how despite such a huge commitment of U.S. money and blood we couldn’t control the place. (I should add that Venezuela’s a lot bigger than Vietnam)
I’m not at all sure the oil companies will buy in and have teams down in Venezuela before the month is out preparing to take over that country’s oil industry. I just hope in Congress the old folks, and by old I mean even older than me remember Vietnam. And remind the younger ones about Baby Bush’s two decade war and that with Venezuela we’d be looking at another Vietnam. I’m convinced even a force the size we built up in Vietnam couldn’t protect the oil production to the degree needed. Trump and his enablers are either epically clueless or flat out lying in saying the U.S. can easily grab control of that oil.
What I fear is the Congress won’t stop him, just as back in the 1960a Congress wouldn’t stop LBJ and Westmoreland. How much will we spend in money and blood before admitting taking over Venezuela to get their oil is a fools’ proposition?” How many will, to paraphrase a famous quote from Vietnam die for a mistake?
Friends, I know everyone begs you for money. I promise, among all those asking for spare change, we are the smallest and the hardest working. We’re a group of old, disabled people, except for one writer in his mid-50s. The rest of us are in our sixties and seventies, and this is a labor of love. All we’re asking for is the chance to keep telling the truth about Trump and help ensure democracy survives. If you can help, please do. Thank you. Ursula
Terribly unfortunate apostrophe placement.
Terribly unfortunate sentence fragment masquerading as criticism.
I’m one of those old farts who remembers Vietnam too well, and I agree that Venezuela is primed to become another killing field. Not to mention a bottomless pit for tax dollars. What makes this situation different is that we now live in the age of drones, where a relatively small investment in technology and high explosives can turn the tide of war. This is the lesson of Ukraine that Putin has learned, and could be trump’s too if he continues down the path of occupation.
The paradox is, despite its vast reserves, oil companies don’t seem to be enthralled about resuming operations in Venezuela. There would be a huge capital investment needed to build refineries and transportation infrastructure. And those facilities would be sitting ducks for insurgents with drones. Besides Putin, President Xi must be looking at this as a trap and both may be waiting for the right moment to strike.