Trump is blustering about how ‘Iran can never be allowed to have a nuclear weapon’ like he’s the first person to say it. Everyone outside Iran including a couple of not so awesome regimes like Russia and China has been saying that very thing for well over four decades! Unless a boatload of nukes make the country (and the region – fallout) uninhabitable for generations the only other option is a large, protracted ground war. Which Team Trump has the Pentagon trying to plan. Yet at the same time the Pentagon, and the Army in particular has been scrambling to CUT training!
Many including me have written/spoken about the difficulties a full-blown war, one that would require physically taking control of the country with ground troops would be. If you remember Iraq and the years of insurgency imagine both a far more difficult initial ‘conquest’ and then a worse insurgency. Sure like in Iraq the people would mostly say thank you for a couple of weeks – then say now get the f**k out. Americans mistakenly assume Iraq and Iran are similar countries with similar dictatorships. They’re not. Iran is FAR larger with more complicated terrain. Unlike Iraq, it isn’t led by a single person like Saddam Hussein. No, Iran’s leadership is far more spread out. As we’ve learned cutting off the head of the snake, deposing/killing the top leader didn’t (and won’t) topple the regime in Iran.
Only a large, protracted war including massive amounts of ground forces will do the job. It would be tough. In fact it would be far tougher than most Americans realize, even in the best of circumstances. Alas, as this reporting from Alternet explains what we have are nowhere near the best of circumstances. Even before this news got out there was plenty of cause for concern. Our Navy is ground down. Petey Boy had to strut his stuff and use if for drug interdiction, a job normally done (and well) by the Coast Guard. But having the Coast Guard just do it’s job wasn’t “warrior” enough looking so the Navy was deployed. Much of it was then, instead of returning to port for rest and refitting deployed to the middle east where we already had carrier groups deployed and in need of some stand-down time. Our newest carrier, the Gerald R. Ford almost set a record length deployment and instead of six months in port will take well over a year, perhaps even two before ready to deploy again!
So yes, it’s fair to say the Navy’s operational tempo has reached a problematic level. In addition, between it and the Air Force a stunning depletion of our arsenal of top weapons has taken place. It will literally take years to build it back up. We’ve also seen leaked U.S. intelligence that (and I’ve assumed it all along) Iran retains far more of it’s own missiles and launchers than we had been told. Iran has spent decades preparing against an invasion by us and NATO/the free world. They knew how far our deepest ‘bunker buster’ bombs could penetrate and buried crucial stuff (not just nuclear labs and uranium) deeper underground and inside mountains than anything can reach. The only way to get those things is to send in ground troops. LOTS of them. And they won’t, because Trumpty and Pentagon Pete have shot so much of their wads already not have the level of air support they would have and should have!
All this is bad in a way I can’t fully articulate in one, even several articles. But one life lesson I learned years before I became a Marine is that no matter how bad things are they can always get worse. Well, it’s worse. In less than three months worth of Naval and Air warfare with Iran The U.S. Army is experiencing a ‘budget crunch’ to the tune of four to six billion dollars. Internal documents show they are making up for it by cutting training:
“The cuts, which range from elite schools to unit-level training, have triggered a wave of abrupt cancellations and unusually aggressive spending scrutiny months before the fiscal year ends September 30,” Beynon explains. “The service’s multibillion-dollar shortfall is the product of a widening set of operational demands and rising costs across the force.”
This didn’t just happen out of the blue. No, it comes from a President who needs distractions having a Secretary of Defense who topped out as a Fox News weekend host and sometimes regular night pundit who is totally unqualified for the job he holds. Petey Boy is strutting around like a Bantam Rooster cheerleading, and worse lecturing actual military professionals with decades of experience on being ‘warriors.’ Well, the cold, hard reality is that image is NOT everything and the firings of so many people who actually knew how to run the military and the Pentagon for not being ‘like totally completely MAGA Trumpy’ enough has come home to roost. Cutting TRAINING? When we are talking about what would wind up being a massive and bloody ground war?
Like munitions, it will take years to recover from what’s been and keeps being lost. Meanwhile Trump is in China experiencing Xi tightening the vise on his nuts. China lest we forget has been on the rise in power and influence in the Pacific. Countries there realize just like in Europe that even if Democrats retake the Congress and then the WH Bush 43 wasn’t an aberration. No, Trump’s initial election and then (incredible) re-election means every four years things are up for grabs. If countries in the Pacific need to work out their own deals with China and to our detriment we’ve only ourselves to blame. There’s a problem and the sooner we realize it the better. Trump (and Stephen Miller) have misused our military and the bill has come due. As the linked article states and as I’ve mentioned there are reasons things are such a mess:
“Major drivers, a U.S. official noted, have been costs associated with the Iran war and an expanding mission securing the southern U.S. border,” Beynon reports. “Additionally, expansive National Guard missions, including the ongoing deployment in Washington, D.C., which alone is projected to cost roughly $1.1 billion this year, according to estimates from the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office. At the same time, the service is absorbing ballooning personnel expenses and stepping in to cover missions tied to Department of Homeland Security funding lapses, including at the southern border and construction projects.”
Yes, the Army is supposed to be reimbursed for covering so much of DHS’ work during the shutdown. I wouldn’t bet on that taking place, at least unless/until Stephen Miller is publicly fired, trashed by Trump and frog-marched out of the WH. They’re trying to be more low key/slicker about it but DHS is still ramping up the whole detain and deport policy. And don’t for a second go thinking Hegseth has the management chops to shift funds around. Nope, he’s taken the easy way out and allowed training to be cut. He figures troops will be totally inspired by watching videos of him cosplaying Patton to the brass. Meanwhile, the very types of units we’d need in top form for a major offensive (with ground troops) in Iran are bearing the brunt of all this mismanagement:
According to Beynond, the U.S. Army’s III Armored Corps is “expected to bear a lot of the brunt” of the training cuts.
“That internal plan warns that the corps’ aviation units will deploy next year at ‘a lower state of readiness,’ and ‘career stagnation’ of mid-level officers who would oversee key training events and noted it would take a full year for units to rebuild ‘combat proficiency,'” Beynon explains. “The corps commands some 70,000 soldiers representing nearly half of the service’s combat power.”
So, we have a mess in the middle east. AND the threat to Taiwan from China has never been greater. They are an actual ally (and customer – oil) of Iran. It’s not like Xi/China doesn’t know what’s just been reported about our diminished readiness. What should scare the hell out of us is what Trump will have to concede both now and in the foreseeable future. Trump likes to talk about being the one ‘holding all the cards’ but the only ones he holds with China are the Joker cards. In a game where Jokers and wild cards aren’t allowed!
The current administration isn’t the first to boast about the ‘Best Trained and Best Equipped” military force on the face of the earth. Well, we should have the best because our DOD budget is larger than that of every other major country’s – COMBINED. Still, there are and always have been limits on what our troops can accomplish. Objectively, in recent decades we’ve proven we can win initial fighting, win the war. Winning the peace is, as it’s always been the hard part. And let’s face it – we suck at nation building so winning the peace after a war with Iran simply isn’t going to happen. Instead, it would turn into another ‘forever war’ of the very type Trumpty promised his MAGAs we’d never have again. However with the Army scrambling to cut training even winning an initial war would take a helluva lot more money and blood (including American) than too many Americans realize.
I wouldn’t go so far (yet) to say we are screwed, but Trump and his team have f**ked things up enough we aren’t going to be in a position to screw Iran or anyone else for a disturbing length of time. Trump set about throwing our soft/diplomatic power into the wood chipper during his first term and not even halfway through his second it’s gone. Now he’s steadily feeding our ‘hard’/military power into the wood chipper. History will not be kind to America. Just as we look at Germany falling under the sway of its own cult leader, enough of this country has fallen under the sway of Trump that not just historians but regular people will look at this time and say ‘how did the people not see what was happening and stop it?
When Trump yells FAKE NEWS often enough and loud enough his MAGAs swallow his bullshit. He should take advantage of that while he still can. Convince Iran to accept the terms of the nuclear deal that was on the table when Trump launched his attack on Iran’s leaders who were meeting to discuss the terms. In exchange for Iran reopening the Straight we withdrawn our Naval presence to traditional levels. Trump can proclaim “TOTAL VICTORY” and having “guaranteed” that “Iran will NEVER have a nuclear weapon.” When Iran and every other country, not to mention critics here in the U.S. put out contrary facts and statements Trump can fall back on his “FAKE NEWS” line of bullshit. At this point I don’t care that MAGAs (most of them) would buy his bullshit and forgive him. We need to get started on fixing all the damage that’s been done.
Friends, I know everyone begs you for money. I promise, among all those asking for spare change, we are the smallest and the hardest working. We’re a group of old, disabled people, except for one writer in his mid-50s. The rest of us are in our sixties and seventies, and this is a labor of love. All we’re asking for is the chance to keep telling the truth about Trump and help ensure democracy survives. If you can help, please do. Thank you. Ursula
more than ten years ago the us had a military budget greater than the next six countries combined. its almost 900 million and they running out? petey wants another 1.5 trillion. ummm…no.