There is a pattern that keeps repeating itself over and over again. That pattern is that this is not the year 2020. Or even 2018. In those years, if you were a MAGA the endorsement of the Mango MAGA Maniac actually meant something. Ask Marjorie Taylor Greene or Lauren Boebert, they’ll tell you how it was their ticket to ride. As you have undoubtedly heard, Donald Trump is livid with Rep. Bob Good and so he endorsed Good’s primary challenger, John McGuire, for the congressional seat in Virginia. That was supposed to lead to a blow out for McGuire and much gnashing and wailing for Good. It emphatically did not happen that way. Right now McGuire is leading by about 309 votes in a race that is still too close and too early to call. So this leaves Trump, understandably, red faced and embarrassed. The Independent:

The former president had endorsed retired Navy SEAL John McGuire, a GOP state senator, and challenger to incumbent Bob Good after he committed the irredeemable sin of backing Florida Governor Ron DeSantis in the Republican presidential primary.

Both Virginians had jostled for Trump’s approval and in a scene worthy of sitcom, showed up to Trump’s hush money trial on the same day in New York last month in an attempt to gain it.

As of Wednesday morning, things weren’t looking great for the MAGA candidate. McGuire had only a 309-vote lead and the race remains too close to call – hardly the kind of blowout that a Trump-backed candidate should enjoy, especially in an area with tons of rural, deep red pockets.

It’s a suprising outcome as the odds had seemed stacked against Good. Not only was Trump against him but so was former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy whose political action committee gave $10,000 to McGuire. That money was payback for Good joining Matt Gaetz and six other Republicans in kicking out McCarthy as speaker back in October.

But the Good-McGuire contest reveals that Trump cannot always decisively smite his perceived enemies, and oust them in favor of filling Republican ranks with acolytes.

It also appears that a sizeable number of people in Good’s district like that he consistently holds Republican leadership to account. Far from being punished for voting against Republican bills and causing gridlock the House, Tuesday’s primary shows plenty of voters want to reward his behavior by keeping him in Washington.

If Good ultimately wins the primary, he is likely to keep the House seat for Republicans in November. The non-partisan Cook Political Report rates the seat as “Safe Republican.”

So here is the indisputable lay of the land: whomever wins the race, Good or McGuire, will win it by the skin of his teeth, not by any kind of blow out. If it is McGuire, then he’s not going to be able to claim any kind of a MAGA mandate from his constituents gave him the victory. If Good wins reelection, then that will conclusively show that Trump can still huff and puff but he’s not going to blow anybody’s house down.

And this is a pattern that has repeated itself. Yes, Trump won the primary battles during primary season, but if you look at the actual margins, at least half of the voters in key states, Iowa for example, voted for other people. There was not the rousing acclimation that has been seen in other election years.

Either way that this McGuire/Good contest falls, it’s already crushing news for MAGA and for Trump. The message to Trump is that there is no magic to his endorsement. Those days are done. Maybe J.D. Vance and a few other people squeaked in under the wire when Trump’s benediction actually meant something but it no longer does.

And if Good does squeak through to reelection and he very well could, then he’ll be just one more key enemy that Trump has going forward into the November election.

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  1. Whether it’s McGuire of Good they both still wear the uniform of fascism.

    Unfortunately, these two Hitlerites are in my district……currently VA-05, formally VA-07 after gerrymandering. When in the 7th, we enjoyed the representation of the best Congressperson on the Hill, Abigail Spanberger. Pelosi got a stick up her azz when Abigail didn’t vote for her as Speaker and did not contest the Republican gerrymander which moved the 7th district to Northern Virginia and moved my county into the 5th, which consists of mostly Southern counties, losing Henrico county which is basically Western Richmond city, and it’s Democratic lean, and removing any chance of Democratic representation.

    Long story short…….either way we are screwed…….basically a choice of getting stuck with Hitler or Stalin.

    Thanks Nancy.

  2. The Republicans have jockeyed things around here in Iowa as well, having enough money to blow away any Democrat out there, we have ONE Democrat left in Iowa’s fixit position, the bean counter that sticks it to Republicans, who wrote laws that release Iowa government offices from having to report their budget uses and that way they can steal our taxes without the office of the treasurer being able to charge them …

    It IS, with a corrupt Governor, Grassley and Ernst running the congressional aspect of our state, we have virtually a robust un-caring RED pile of shit in our Capitol … I’m tired of having to pay Iowa sales tax to spend my own money for anything except certain foods and drugs … Seven bucks per hundred, and of course, it does not seem so bad when it’s only 7 cents on every dollar, so stupid as there is very little we can see where that money goes …


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