Trump Is Bleeding WHITE Working Class Support. Uh Oh

Ever since Trump named J.D. Vance as his VP pick the running narrative has been he was talked into it at the last minute by Don Jr. and Peter Theil.  Supposedly their argument, which others Trump (sometimes) listens to is that Vance would help ‘run up the score’ of an election they already had in the bag. I wrote here on Politizoom a week or so ago there were a couple of proverbial voices in the wilderness saying there was a different reason. I only saw a couple such articles and they got drowned out but they suggested the Trump Campaign had internal polling that Trump was bleeding support with white males, and Vance would shore it up. The idea was he’d appeal to both college educated and non-college educated white guys.  Well, it turns out those few voices with the narrative counter to the one we all keep hearing about might have been right all along.

Newsweek has put out a startling article that I’m pretty sure will get attention. Maybe it will even prompt others to do a deeper dive into all this.  The article starts with a direct, clear statement that Trump’s support with the white working class has “shrunk significantly.” Wow. Newsweek quickly goes on to compare Trump’s support from back in May when President Biden was the presumptive Democratic nominee vs. now. To back up their case they cite a New York Times/Sienna College poll (IOW a fairly reputable one) conducted between August 5-9. Among other things it indicates that in the crucial Democratic “Blue Wall” states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, more white non-college-educated voters are backing Vice President Kamala Harris.  These voters as you know traditionally back Republicans.

Not to be snarky (ok – I’m being snarky) Vance doesn’t seem to be having the effect Team Trump and frankly the entire GOP has been counting on. Now, some of you are saying ‘Details! We want details’ so let’s look at some more data from the poll:

According to the poll, Trump’s lead among the demographic has been slashed by 13 points since May, when Biden was still the presumptive candidate for the Democratic Party. In a New York Times/Siena College poll conducted between April 28 and May 9, Trump was 26 points ahead of Biden among white non-college-educated voters when third-party candidates were included—with 52 percent to his opponent’s 26 percent.

Trump is now only 13 points ahead among white non-college-educated voters, with 53 percent to Harris’ 40 percent when third-party candidates are included. The former president is also 13 points ahead of Harris in a head-to-head matchup. The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

Look, I’m not saying Harris will win the white vote even with Tim Walz on the ticket with her.  I’d love to be wrong about that but hell, Joe Biden didn’t win that group! Especially white male voters. The notion that even with Walz white males in particular are going to vote in greater numbers for a woman, and a black woman is simply wishful thinking. However cutting the margin enough to make a difference IS possible and it looks like Harris (and Walz who she named as her running mate just as this poll started being conducted) have cut Trump’s advantage he had in May with this group of voters in half.  Again, Wow!  Suddenly knocking that traditional GOP advantage (more pronounced under Trump) into single digits is no pipe dream. In and of themselves these numbers are causing ulcers with Trump (and the GOP) and some real panic might be about to set in.

I also ask you to consider this. For all the talk in the last few cycles about the Democratic “Blue Wall” the GOP has one of it’s own. If you take a look at one of those maps of red and blue states going back a bunch of Presidential elections there’s an entire swath of RED that covers most of the mountain west and to edges of the western part of what’s called the midwest.  Toss in Ohio which has become reliably red and it’s imposing as hell. However, even Texas (not to mention Florida too) are suddenly being talked about. I honestly don’t think either one will go blue this fall but if Trump’s white support has slipped as much as it seems to have done it means the GOP will have to put in time and money to secure them. That’s time (especially Trump’s) they won’t be able to use elsewhere. And what if one or two of those other mountain west states peel off and go blue? They might not have many electoral votes by themselves but the impact could be “Yuge” both this fall and in the future.  IF a ticket of Harris/Walz makes Democrats even only competitive with white voters, as in white working class voters the shift in the political landscape will be seismic.

If that isn’t bad enough Newsweek reports the poll included another area that if it hasn’t made Team Trump (and again, the GOP) reach for the panic button they will. And soon. I mentioned this too in an article late last week. These voters now indicate they trust Harris and Democrats more on the Economy!

The new poll, which surveyed 1,973 likely voters, also showed that more white non-college-educated voters trusted the Democratic candidate on the economy than did previously, with 38 percent of the demographic saying Harris would do a better job than Trump on the economy.

In May, 26 percent said Biden would do a better job. Trump fared better in both polls, though he lost 9 points. In the May poll, 69 percent of white non-college-educated voters said the Republican would do a better job on the economy. In August, 60 percent said he would.

THAT my friends is the type of news that will lead to the rending of garments and slashing of wrists!  Many a (what passes for) sane Republican has, as I wrote yesterday been counseling others not to panic.  That Harris/Walz is in a “Honeymoon” period but it will fade, especially when the GOP mounts a steady series of attacks using the Economy as a weapon. However, there are problems with that.

First, the Democratic Convention is next week and it’s virtually certain to inject a fresh shot of adrenaline into Democrats. And Independents leaning our way too.  Second, this poll cited by Newsweek isn’t the only one in the last week indicating that the grip the GOP has assumed it had on the Economy issue isn’t a strong one. In fact it might have slipped through their fingers. Finally, if you didn’t catch the news this morning inflation is now UNDER 3% and the Federal Reserve will almost certainly cut interest rates next month. Even worse, experts suggest that instead of a half-point because the Fed is/was worried about a recession, it will only be a quarter-point because IF a downturn is coming it will be a “soft-landing.” As in no recession.

For the campaign, Democrats from Harris on down can tout the manufacturing jobs that have been coming back to America. Plants that have opened and all those good paying jobs. They will be able to cite an ever increasing number of infrastructure jobs (with some wisecracks thrown in about Trump and ‘Infrastructure Week’), so many of which are in RED states putting blue collar workers back on the job with good paying jobs. AND point out how Republicans in Congress, to a person voted against all of it!

In other words, if Trump and Republicans were counting on winning voters on the issue of the Economy they are going to have to recalibrate. However, even for Republicans capable of doing so and fighting on an even playing field they’ve got the leader of their Party who will drown them out. Trump is too filled with grievance and hate. He simply doesn’t have the intellect (he never did) to master the nuances of economics and argue effectively. And, for damned sure he doesn’t have the DISCIPLINE!

Vance is supposed to be handling all that for Trump. He’s the guy with the Yale law degree and the “background” in finance. Of course, Vance’s actual record in doing high finance is pretty underwhelming. His master Peter Theil kept finding him new gigs when it was apparent he couldn’t keep up with his peers. Again I can’t help but wonder just what it was with Vance that had Theil willing to do so much to prop him up but let’s not get into all that.  Then there’s the whole Hillbilly Elegy thing, which is supposed to prove Vance’s love of poor and working class people. At first glance it passed muster but upon reflection the growing consensus is that Vance trashed his roots. “Those people.” His last financial maneuvering before running for Senate resulted in failure.

However the point is that Vance was supposed to be the key to Trump and Republicans running up the score this fall. To give them the “Red Wave” they had confidently predicted in the 2022 midterms that turned out to be barely a few raindrops.  Yet I go back to what I’ve said before today. It’s quite possible that rather than be a “run up the score” guy within Trump’s closest circle they looked at internal polling showing Trump’s support among whites, and even white MALES was slipping. And decided that Vance was the guy to shore them up. Trump of course only cares about himself and his survival instincts might well have told him ‘If it doesn’t work you will be able to blame it all on Vance – and Don Jr.’ No one doubts Trump would throw Junior under the bus!

Either way, whether Vance was picked to shore up support from a demographic where Trump can’t afford any loss of support OR to run up the score Vance isn’t getting it done for Trump. Also, it doesn’t look like he’ll be able to climb out of the hole he’s dug for himself and the Trump campaign.  Where does that leave things?  It looks like Trump might well have a serious problem that won’t just result in him losing, but losing ‘bigly.’ This is a long way from over.  However, if additional polling comes out showing Trump has lost as much support with white folks as the one I’ve cited here he’s in deep trouble.  Worse, if more polling comes out showing Harris and Democrats have pulled even or are even a little ahead of Trump on the issue of who’s best for the Economy come election day the theme song for Republicans will be the old CCR classic Bad Moon Rising.

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