The Rise
The self-serving, ambitious members of Congress are identifiable by their ability to shapeshift from one principled stand to another entirely different principled stand, without the inconvenience of actual principles. Such is Elise Stefanik.
After Trump was declared the Republican nominee for the 2016 election, Roll Call reported that
…down-ballot Republicans are making complicated calculations to determine how they will react.
Congressional candidates on both sides of the aisle are confronted with disillusioned voters. But they also must meet the sometimes conflicting demands of national party leaders who bankroll campaigns and determine political futures.
Stefanik’s approach:
“I’m supporting my party’s nominee,” she said. “But I’ll continue being an independent voice for the district.”
Stefanik, “the independent voice,” didn’t last long. When Trump made it to the White House, Stefanik seamlessly shifted from moderate conservative to sycophantic maga overnight (and the first Trump error was a very long and dark night in US politics).
By mid-May, SBS Australia‘s report made it clear that the Trumpification of Stefanik had smothered all traces of conservative independence and bipartisanship.
Ms Stefanik made clear that Mr Trump and Trumpism will remain vital in the effort to turn back the “destructive, radical, far-left socialist agenda” of President Joe Biden and his Democrats.
As Mother Jones’ Washington, DC, Bureau Chief David Corn explained, the mid-May 2021 event was an important internal vote in the House Republican Conference.
Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.) is poised this week to become the highest-ranking elected Republican woman in the House of Representatives, as the beneficiary of the GOP mutiny against Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.). Cheney, the chair of the House Republican conference, dared to acknowledge reality: Donald Trump lost the election and then incited the seditious attack on the US Capitol. For that sin, the House Republican wing of the Trump cult will give Cheney the boot and replace her with Stefanik.
The promotion secured greater media exposure for Stefanik, including a position flanking the House Speaker at the podium during live press releases. She may also have scored a larger office and more staff. Congressional leadership positions do typically come with office suites and additional staff, just as losing a leadership role can mean losing those perks. However, it should be noted that this is a general rule of congressional operations, not something documented specifically for Cheney when she lost her position, or Stefanik when she gained hers.
Elise Stefanik reached the pinnacle of her political rise in November 2021, when Trump named her his first Cabinet pick for his second term. Garrett Haake and Rebecca Shabad of NBC News reported the announcement on November 12.
President-elect Donald Trump has tapped House Republican Conference chair and long-time ally Rep. Elise Stefanik, of New York, to serve as ambassador to the United Nations.
But Stefanik’s elation was short-lived. As The Guardian reported on the 28th March this year,
Donald Trump announced on Thursday that he was pulling US House representative Elise Stefanik’s nomination to be the US ambassador to the United Nations, a stunning turnaround for his cabinet pick after her confirmation had been stalled
Stefanik had been in a state of limbo for months, not able to engage in her official duties as a member of the 119th Congress or to participate in the action at the UN.
The Fall
After rescinding his nomination, Trump stated that Stefanik would rejoin House leadership, demonstrating, for the umpteenth time, that he has no idea how Congress works. Stefanik had relinquished her position as the Republican Conference Chair in January, and by March, all the leadership posts had been filled. The media happily speculated about what role there could be for her.
It took almost a month, but finally, someone unearthed the position of the Chair of House Republican Leadership. It is a role that is typically left unfilled and has been vacant for so long that no publicly available reporting indicates when it was last filled. That it existed was all Mike Johnson needed to know, and he appointed Stefanik to the role on the 11th of April this year.
While Stefanik talked up the grandiosity of the position, it was nevertheless a demotion for her. She retained her office and staff but relinquished the media attention she’d had as the Republican Conference Chair and the elite status she would’ve had as U.S. ambassador to the UN. It had to hurt.
She’d moved down the leadership ladder in the US House to an optional role, a consolation prize, and Stefanik knew the Republican Party would keep her down; there was no longer a pathway to the upper echelons for her, and no longer any chance of an Executive Branch role. So she went looking for another position.
There would not be another election for New York Senator until 2028, so that was out. But New York is scheduled to hold state elections in 2026. Kathy Hochul is not the most popular Governor – certainly not in Elise Stefanik’s circle of friends and donors. The position has the kind of cachet Stefanik wants: a huge, plush office with enviable views, a much larger staff, considerably greater opportunities for media exposure and a great deal more power. It has everything she was looking for, and she didn’t hesitate to sign up.
But then the tide turned against maga candidates. In the November state elections, Democrats decimated Republican opponents, with landslide victory margins ranging from 10 to 17 points. In early December, a Democrat won the Miami Mayoral race for the first time in nearly 30 years, crushing her GOP opponent by 19 points. In deep red Kentucky this week, Gary Clemons won the KY Senate District 37 special election in a 42-point swing to the Blue. Democrats have now won or overperformed in 227 of 255 key elections this year — nearly 90%.
It took a while, but this Friday, reality finally burst the bubble of Elise Stefanik’s fantasy plans. Anthony Izaguirre for AP News:
ALBANY, N.Y. (AP) — Rep. Elise Stefanik suspended her campaign for New York governor on Friday and said she will not seek reelection to Congress, bowing out of what was expected to be a bruising Republican primary and ending a once-promising tenure in the House.
In her statement to the media, Stefanik asserted, “It is not an effective use of our time” to stay in the race, and that she instead wants to spend more time with her young son and family.
But The Bulwark trio – Sarah Longwell, Tim Miller and JVL – who exclaimed, “It’s a Christmas Miracle!” and “Elise Stefanik’s career is over” at the start of the show, went on to dispute Stefanik’s statement.
TIM: Do we think she’s going to go home to her district? Raise your hand if you think Elise Stefanik is going to go home to upstate New York after this is all over.
SARAH: Good prediction question, though. What does she do in the wake of this?
JVL: I think she gets a Paul Ryan memorial chair at Fox News’ Board.
SARAH: I do think it’s something like that, yeah.
Whatever her future holds, it won’t be Congress, or an Executive role, or a governorship. Trump effectively ended her political ambitions. When the 119th Congress recesses in December 2026, her career will slump into that dusty pit formed by multitudinous bottoms at the end of the slide.
Bye, Elise.
Sometimes it is just karma.
Oh yeah, and I’m happy she is experiencing it during her lifetime instead of carrying it into the afterlife as Trump and the majority of his admin cabal appear to be doing.