Far be it from me to become the prophetess of doom 36 days before election day, but a realistic appraisal of two key Senate races is in order. Ron Johnson is leading his Democratic challenger Mandela Barnes by six to eight points, depending upon which poll you look at. John Fetterman and Mehmet Oz, incredibly, are in a statistical tie.

Bottom line: If those two seats, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, stay in Republican hands, then the GOPers could win back the Senate if they can unseat just one Democratic incumbent.

It’s not time to get the sackcloth and ashes, but it emphatically is time to do everything possible to drive out the vote in those two states. Axios:

What’s happening: In Wisconsin, GOP Sen. Ron Johnson has pulled ahead of Democrat Mandela Barnes in the latest wave of public polls. In Pennsylvania, recent polling suggests Democrat John Fetterman’s double-digit advantage over Republican Mehmet Oz has shrunk to a statistical tie. They are vying for the seat held by retiring GOP Sen. Pat Toomey.

Why it matters: The Republican momentum in both states, acknowledged by strategists on both sides, means the pathway for Republicans to win back the Senate majority looks clearer.

  • If they hold Wisconsin and Pennsylvania — along with all the states Trump carried — Republicans would need to unseat just one Democratic incumbent.

By the numbers: In Wisconsin, Barnes trails Johnson by five points in a new poll conducted for the AARP by Biden pollster John Anzalone and Trump pollster Tony Fabrizio.

  • A Fox News poll released this week, which showed Johnson ahead by four points, found 44% of Wisconsin voters believing Barnes’ views are “too extreme” — a point higher than those who viewed Johnson the same way. The share of voters who now view Barnes as too extreme spiked 14 points in the last month.

  • Johnson’s supporters are much more committed to supporting their candidate than Barnes backers, according to the Fox News poll. Only half of Barnes votes said they supported their candidate “enthusiastically.”

In Pennsylvania, Fetterman’s commanding August lead over Oz has shrunk to low single-digits in three new public polls this week — from Emerson College (Fetterman +2), Fox News (Fetterman +4) and Franklin & Marshall College (Fetterman +3).

  • “This will be a 50-50 race, and it will determine control of the U.S. Senate,” one Democratic congressman told Axios. […]

The bottom line: The range of likely Senate outcomes is narrowing: It’s hard to see Republicans winning more than 52 Senate seats (R+2), and it’s difficult to see Democrats winning more than 51 (D+1).

I am resigned to Ron Johnson probably staying in the Senate. The man belongs there like a can of Spam belongs at a health food buffet but these things happen in politics.

I am despondent over the possibility of John Fetterman losing to that snake oil salesman Mehmet Oz, absolutely despondent. The Republicans have been pushing hard on Fetterman’s criminal justice record, as being “too progressive.” He believes in second chances for non-violent offenders, such as pot smokers. That anybody sane would believe that Oz could do a better job than Fetterman blows my mind, but the polls have tightened to neck and neck.

Understand this about polls always favoring the Republicans: a lot of hard core GOP voters won’t talk to pollsters, because they fundamentally distrust government, authority, all of it,  but they will show up and vote. So if you’ve got a poll that is neck and neck, it is possible that a true polling would show Oz ahead by four or five points.

It pains me to say that. But I have to say it, because 2016 taught me the hard way that Republicans underpoll and I believe it’s for the reason stated, that there are hard core GOPers who simply do not talk to pollsters and they end up throwing all the figures off.

I don’t want to see John Fetterman lose but I don’t know what to do about it. If you have any relatives or friends in Pennsylvania that you can appeal to, now is the time to do it. If you live in Pennsylvania, do whatever you can.

Here are links to both Fetterman and Barnes campaigns.

Fetterman for U.S. Senate

Mandela Barnes for U.S. Senate

I hope both Democrats can defeat their Republican opponents. Six more years of Ron Johnson is an appalling prospect, but not nearly as appalling as the thought of Mehmet Oz in the Senate. The one brilliant ray of hope in the Oz/Fetterman race is that the two will be debating this month and I expect Fetterman to wipe the floor with Oz. That may change the race right then and there.

This is a key election, as you know.

Do whatever you possibly can.

 

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16 COMMENTS

  1. “I expect Fetterman to wipe the floor with Oz.” The only thing Fetterman will be wiping up is the puss from that monster zit Oz will pop on the back of Fetterman’s neck after the election. Thats why they call him Dr. Oz.

    15
  2. I want to ask “just how effing stupid are the people in WI” however because I grew up in the state just south of theirs, I have a very good idea just how effing stupid they are.

      • red they use to ride snake oil salesmen out of town tarred and feathered on a rail??? Now the wise people of this state are about to elect one who doesn’t even live in the state, LMAO If it looks like a duck and quacks like a duck………seem a little bit, like kinda, a tad…………STUPID to me?????

  3. I really wish the democrats would run on and propose incremental changes. Anything else turns off independents as illustrated in Wisconsin.

    • Meanwhile, GOPers go to their websites and scrub anything perceived as “extreme,” hoping to fool “moderate” and “independent” voters, and then, after they get elected, they turn right back to the extreme right-wing views they scrubbed before the election.

      And stupid voters fall for it EVERY SINGLE TIME and then act surprised when the GOPer shows his/her true colors.

    • There are some constituents in the good ol US of A where a Dem couldn’t get elected if he could walk on water? And that’s just sad!

  4. The MSM needs a horse race. The MSM is controlled by corporations that lean R. Their polls are merely a blip in time. Also, there was a significant increase in new voter registrations, leaning D, that are not reflected in the current polling. The pollsters don’t even know these new voters exist. Remember Kansas – prior to the election, the anti-abortion forces were polling ahead by one or two points. They lost by 18. All those new voters showed up. That doesn’t mean don’t stop working. In fact, this might just be the kick in the ass those sometime voters need to get off the sofa and vote.

  5. In PA, the poll sponsored by Fox included 3% for Independent Everett Stern. This is what Stern announced on Sept. 29, 3 days AFTER the Fox poll ended: “I am not leaving the U.S. Senate race bc Flynn will take credit & I am pulling votes from OZ. Since I am polling, I ask ALL of my supporters to put their support and weight behind John Fetterman. It is very important that Fetterman wins. The PA U.S. Senate seat must be Blue.” Factoring this into account has to add at least 1% point to Fetterman’s lead after all of the latest polls were taken and published. Also, 538 which takes the conglomerate of all latest polls, currently shows Fetterman with a 6% lead over dual-Turkish citizen Oz. 6% is above the margin of error of the new polls.

    Can’t understand how any red-blooded patriotic Pennsylvanian would vote for anti-American Oz – who still votes in Turkish elections and is so out of touch with PA, its traditions and its hard-working ordinary people.

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