The boss, Ursula Faw, reports that Trump might run unopposed. I am sure she’s sourced it and thought it through. And even though it’s normally a bad idea to oppose the person whose name is behind the Venmo amount sent once a month, we’re long friends and respect each other.
Therefore, I can humbly state with certainty that Trump is not running unopposed, and if it were even a possibility, Urs is right. Liz Cheney will run, but I think she’ll first run as a Republican. She will get beat. And then she’ll run as an Independent, taking away any hope that Trump can beat a three election losing streak and win.
For the foreseeable future, Democrats will win the popular vote after popular vote. My prediction is that the next one will be by ten million people. We are a long way from the Republicans ever getting a majority. Since 1988, they’ve done it once. Bush v. Kerry. It is the reason why the Republicans are exploring legislatures sending alternative electors outside any court’s ability to overrule it, even if the victory is certified by the Sec. of State and Governor. Oh, and continue to pound on voting rights.
If Cheney runs as an independent and secures 5% of the vote, and I think that figure is conservative, more like 10-15% of the vote, the Democrat – Joe Biden – will whistle right back to the White House.
But I don’t think even that will be needed. Trump is weak. He’s been shown to be dangerous. Despite massive damage control, most Republicans are not impressed by January 6th. They’re horrified. Perhaps DeSantis isn’t brave enough, even though Chris Sununu said that DeSantis would win New Hampshire today and Trump doesn’t have the energy he had in 2016.
Trump’s possible opponents know two things:
First, he is at least as likely to drop out of the race for a reason (Health, Important Business matters, fighting the weaponization of government aka prosecution) just as soon as he has sucked the maximum amount of money he can without standing for a real election. As Michael Cohen routinely says, Trump cannot stomach the risk of a second loss. The first loss was, of course, stolen. A second???
Second, MAGA Republicans and normal Republicans anticipate Trump either dropping out before or shortly after not dominating the primaries. Wanna be’s like Mike Pompeo (How can he possibly think he can win?) John Bolton is even considering running (Ditto). DeSantis has given every indication that he’s running. He’s the one guy who never promised Trump that he’d stay out of the race. Nikki Haley is definitely running. Josh Hawley… almost for sure. South Dakota governor Kristi Noem so desperately wants to be president – or live in a city – that it almost hurts to watch. Rick Scott…
And then there are the non-MAGAs that might see a lane, just enough Republicans wanting to dip their toe in normalcy, Larry Hogan, Chris Sununu, Chris Christie, Republicans all but basically never Trumpers.
The thing is, almost every name listed above? They know that a second Trump presidency would be an utter disaster. He was so reckless in his first. Nothing would stop him from doing the craziest shit as a second termer, supposedly never able to run again. But they all know if Trump runs again and wins, he’s going to come up with a reason why he should get a third term (The first was stolen from me!) And even though Trump would be in his lower 80s, you just know that Trump isn’t the type that will conveniently die. Despite the worst lifestyle, he’s just not going to die, much like Kissinger.
For some reason, I can’t envision his funeral. And given my proven slight precognition ability (Honest, at times in my life, I’ve “known” something about my future, especially having a daughter. I’ve known that since high school), it’s a little disturbing that I cannot picture his funeral. I’m only 52, but in the end, we’re all day to day. So, again – if somehow Trump wins in 2024, he’s running in 2028 – I guarantee.
I also guarantee he will not run unopposed in 2024. He is too weak, and Republicans know it.
****
[email protected], @JasonMiciak, SUBSTACK: MEMPHIS HORROR; GOP ACTIVELY REFUSES TO AWAKEN TO OUR INHUMANITY
If the American voters don’t rise up to stop this nazi party…goodbye democracy. You won’t need to worry about 2028. We’ll have the same kind of ‘elections’ putin allows in Russia.
Why is he still alive? Well, I think of the most vile, disgusting and frankly evil person it’s every been my misfortune to know. My grandfather (dad’s dad). I won’t go into just how awful he was but two things are relevant. One is that yes he believed in God and heaven and hell and knew, I mean KNEW in that black heart of his he was headed to the latter. He was terrified of dying, and in the latter half of the 60s and up until his death in 1976 there were multiple times it looked like he’d be a goner. Only to have him miraculously survive. Granny on the other hand was as sweet a person as one could ever know and was loathe to say bad things about others, but so when she’d make a gentle criticism it carried a lot of weight. More than once, referring to my grandfather when discussion would turn to how he kept surviving seemingly sure death she’d quip “The Lord doesn’t want him and the Devil won’t have him.” Even though I’m agnostic (I WISH I believed there was a hell so I could take comfort in Trump one day being there!) the sentiment holds.
I agree with most of your analysis, except the part about Pompeo. Dude truly scares me, and I assure you, while he may not win, he will do much better than we currently imagine here in early 2023.
Interesting. I’d like to know why. I could easily be wrong. Tell me about it.
I agree with you, Jason. I’d love to see Liz Chaney run as a Republican against Trump, lose, run as an Independent, thereby sticking to former president Drink Bleach.
I agree with you, Jason. I’d love to see Liz Chaney run as a Republican against Trump, lose, run as an Independent, thereby sticking it to former president Drink Bleach.
He will certainly be opposed in the primaries. And here’s the thing. If he doesn’t win the nomination, he will certainly claim that the elections were rigged. At that point civil war will break out in the GOP, just in time for the campaign season. Then, if Liz Cheney runs a third party campaign, they might have to start playing this song:
Both you AND Ursula need to just forget about Cheney running in 2024, Jason. There is absolutely no gain for her to be going for an inevitable loss in the primaries or playing spoiler as an independent here. All either would do is potentially alienate people she needs down the line to win. She might back, say, Kinzinger for either but that’s as far as it goes. She’ll be waiting in the weeds for the time being.
I don’t think she has any belief that she could ever be president. If she runs it will be to spite Trump and keep him out of the Oval Office. I think she would see it as her patriotic duty. I don’t think she actually believes she’ll ever be president and don’t know if she wants to be. She might rather be president of Haliburton and a powerful voice. Dunno. I do know that she’s sincere in saying that she will do everything in her power to keep him out of the oval office.
I share your belief in her sincerity. Where I differ is that I’m convinced she is thinking far bigger than one office, even the presidency. The entire Republican party is a shambles right now. As long as that is true, any power is woefully restricted from within it, barely more than that of an independent party. So her goal is to rebuild, which will take time and a vanity run for President would derail by making too many of the wrong enemies.
You said it yourself that she’d rather be president of Haliburton. Does a type like that not strike you as someone who would use a catspaw like Kinzinger so she could stay in the shadows? Surely, if we’re reading her right, she learned THAT much from her father.
Greg Abbott is waiting in the wings to capture the desantis vote when desantis falters. Abbott is a smarter desantis. he has mostly avoided all of the desantis garbage of don’t say gay and crt. He does have the border focus as something to rally around. don’t leave him out of your analysis.
To me, he’s just another Deathsantis, powerful until you get to the state line. Kemp or Youngkin are far more competent.
I’m cringing at the thought of what we’ll have to go through when he does die. When Reagan died, the ceremonial hoopla went on for a solid week. I read then that Presidents are give a 200 page list of “honors” they can choose from and Reagan chose them all. Orange Dump will want them to add 200 more and choose them all.
Should Liz decide to run I would expect more challenge from someone like Nikki Haley than I would Trump or a Governor. A race would require at least two debates and Cheney know where all their skeletons are hanging. In a debate because of what she knows she would bury both of those two. Because she has a sizeable group of absolutely maniacal (Liz haters R us) following, the party faithful might give the nod to a candidate like Haley? Don’t expect Donald to win it hands down. In fact don’t expect to see Donald win it at all?
YES #Jason YES .. GO #Liz GO
(Though TRUMP still has gillions of backroom pressure deals to make.. after all he was #Epsteins and #GhiselleMaxwell’ #coworker for years as well as #Deripaska #Yanukovich employee #Manaforts.