Six months ago the odds of Democrats regaining control of the Senate were long. The map wasn’t favorable since the Democrats had to ‘hold serve’ including in still red Georgia and purple Michigan AND win in some unlikely places. However by September the GOP found itself playing whack-a-mole as what should have been GOP wins in red states became toss-ups or even had a Democrat leading. Now we see Mississippi which is as red as it gets suddenly in play!
Incumbent Cindy Hyde-Smith has led all along but not by as much as you’d think. Still, it’s Mississippi so it was startling to see Sabato’s Crystal Ball shift the state from “Solid Republican” to “Likely Republican.” Now, according to this article from Newsweek a recent poll has Democratic challenger Scott Colum within the margin of error:
The Wedgewood Polls survey found Hyde-Smith leading Colom 52 percent to 48 percent, a gap inside its 4.3-point margin of error. The poll of 511 likely voters was conducted from October 12 to 14.
The result arrived after Sabato’s Crystal Ball shifted the contest from “Safe Republican” to “Likely Republican,” signaling that the race has become more competitive, even though Hyde-Smith remains favored.
Democrats’ interest in what is still considered an unlikely pickup have been eyeing that race for a while now. In fact the linked article cites a WSJ article last month said donors have started directing money to the race seeing it as a “possible target.” Yes, it’s still Hyde-Smith’s seat to lose and we are after all talking about Mississippi but Newsweek’s article says one poll (the one they cite) doesn’t make a trend they detail interesting polling data from earlier this year. Given it’s Mississippi it was assumed the seat would be safe for the GOP so there aren’t many credible polls there to go on. However, we do have this:
A Data for Progress survey of 1,018 likely Mississippi voters, conducted from August 5 to 15, gave the Republican a six-point lead in a straight matchup between the two candidates. Its three-candidate test recorded Hyde-Smith at 44 percent, Colom at 38 percent and Pinkins at 7 percent, with 11 percent undecided. The research was conducted for Way to Lead PAC, which is affiliated with Colom, and carried a plus or minus 3 percentage point margin of error.
An April poll by Impact Research put Hyde-Smith at 42 percent, Colom at 39 percent and Pinkins at 6 percent among 500 likely voters. Fourteen percent were undecided. That survey, which was sponsored by the Democratic-aligned SPLC Action Fun, was conducted from April 8 to 12.
I don’t know about you but two thoughts keep coming to me. This is Mississippi and the and I couldn’t remember last Democrat to win a Senate race there. (It was John Stennis all the way back in 1982.) The second is that Trump won there all three times. He beat Hillary Clinton by 18 points and Joe Biden by 16.5. Kamala Harris he beat by 22.9 points. I don’t think the jump up well over twenty percent was an accident. Kamala Harris is a woman of color and this is Mississippi. That’s why it’s striking that Colom, a black man has polled well within ten points all along. The fact he hasn’t been losing by fifteen or twenty percent is, to me at least telling.
Although not a long read Newsweek’s article is chock-full of interesting details. However what matters is that the state is actually within reach for Democrats. It’s another headache, another fire to try to stamp out for the GOP when they are already dealing with more than they ever dreamed they’d have to deal with only six months ago. Having to put last minute money into freaking Mississippi to hold that Senate seat is a sign of just how much Trump has dragged the Republican Party down.
It’s not the only red state that’s in play and while it’s way too soon to pop the champagne the GOP which is already virtually certain to lose the House (and by at least twenty, perhaps even thirty or more seats) losing control of the Senate, and worse with decent chance of Democrats winding up with 52 or more seats (giving them a bit of wiggle room if say Fetterman switches sides) it would be a disaster for Trump. Having a Democratically controlled House crawling up his wazoo with long overdue investigations AND the Senate doing the same would of course be bad. It gets worse for Trump.
What people don’t think about (or pundits talk about) nearly as much is Trump’s ability to get unqualified idiots and activist judges and Justices confirmed would be gone. Add in judges around the country including conservative federal appellate courts that are fed up with his gaming the system he won’t get away with abusing recess appointments when a Democratic Senate refuses to confirm asshats like Hegseth, RFK Jr. etc.
That’s what the GOP has been facing in the last six weeks or so. Now, with so many seats at least in play and a couple of other GOP seats (North Carolina and Ohio) now gone they have to worry about Mississippi! Stay tuned folks. When Republicans have to worry in Mississippi there’s every indication they will see a bad moon rising when the votes are counted up after the polls close on election night.
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