While it is much too soon to break out the party favors, and there are some minor caveats included within, a new Marist/NPR poll conducted on July 9th and 10th shows that in a head to head match up President Biden now leads Donald Trump by a two point margin, 50-48%… up one point from the same survey conducted before the debate. This after his sub-par performance in last month’s square-off and two weeks of unrelenting calls for him to abandon his campaign. Factoring in third party candidates, Trump heads Biden by a single percentage point. Both results are within the poll’s margin or error.
Perhaps it is time for a new narrative?
“The race for the presidency remains statistically tied despite President Biden’s dismal debate performance two weeks ago, a new national NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll finds.
Biden actually gained a point since last month’s survey, which was taken before the debate. In this poll, he leads Trump 50% to 48% in a head-to-head matchup. But Biden slips when third-party options are introduced, with Trump holding the slightest advantage with 43% to 42%.
Those numbers, though, do not represent statistically significant differences, as the margin of error in the survey is +/- 3.1 percentage points, meaning results could be 3 points higher or lower.
The poll also found that, at this point, no other mainstream Democrat who has been mentioned as a replacement for the president on the ticket does better than Biden.”
I find the fact that Biden holding his own in this poll very heartening, particularly because the media/punditocracy pile on against him has been so overwhelmingly vicious, yet has actually had little affect if this survey is credible.
And while voters have some doubts about Biden’s mental fitness to lead, the polls shows that only among Republicans do voters believe Donald Trump possesses the character to do so…
I also believe that Biden will find it easier to allay voter concerns about his mental heath than drumpf will rehabilitate his proven character deficit among Independents.
News of this survey received a lot of notice on Twitter/x:
Nate Silver's model this morning has Biden slightly ahead in the electoral college. pic.twitter.com/rh5Vk1pLR3
— Crazy Fenak (@CrazyFenaker) July 12, 2024
👍
66% saying they are more worried about honesty then age is a desthblow for Trump's reelection bid. If that holds Biden will win in a landslide.
— #1 Jalen Hurts Fan (@Anthony60957284) July 12, 2024
🤞🤞🤞
The voters know the assignment. Everyone else seems to be dead set on making our job more difficult, but we (unlike them) are willing to do the hard work.
— howlongtoretire (@howlongtoretire) July 12, 2024
Yup
Oh word? People are less afraid of grandpa than a guy who talks about shredding the Constitution and is a convicted felon?
— Liran Kapoano (@kapoano) July 12, 2024
Good to know.
I think I understand why "essentially no change" is used, but due to changes being within the margin, but assuming the margin holds stable we do see a non-trivial improvement for Biden since June 18th, with a small improvement since July 1. Correct?
— Chris Stevenson (@ckstevenson) July 12, 2024
Correct
And yet, @WNYC dedicated a whole news break to the Harris / Putin flub, cringy as it was, rather than report it was an hour long masterclass in the issues.
— Geoff Pomerantz (@gpmrntz) July 12, 2024
🤬🤬🤬
One guy stutters. Another guy confuses his wife with the woman he raped.
— Milton Waddams (@GritsLow) July 12, 2024
Yup
Yes, polls are just snapshots taken in a long running film, but still a bit of good news is good heading into a long hot weekend is always welcome!
Well, you are giving me a little peace after the shock last week.
I noticed that the poll question said: “Has the character to lead”. How could anyone think the Mango Menace “has the ___character___ to lead”? Able to lead, I suppose, though only if dictatorship and kleptocracy is the definition of “leading”. Only people who think we are voting for two football teams would call that “leadership”.
Don’t forget that the German word for ‘leader’ is Fuehrer
He can lead a golf cart to the next hole all while sitting on his a**.
Sometimes his fat ass is so lazy he drives his cart ON TO THE GREEN rather than walk from the edge (forget about sticking to the cart path) which any golfer and I’ll bet most non-golfers know is a huge no-no. But he plays on courses he owns so he doesn’t care about the damage he causes. Since he cheats all the time anyway if he finds his ball on the wrong side of such unhealed damage to the green he’ll just “give himself” the putt.
I have tried very hard to never see a pic of him on the golf course, after the shock of the first sight of one. Occasionally I am not quick enough to look away and alas, it is still a horrible shock.
Thanks for this, Dino. I totally agree with it. I have tried to use the like button to no avail. Is there some trick to it?
I am feeling some hope in this whole, shocking debacle. I can’t use my News Feed anymore because I have hit on the down thumb for all these negative articles and then I get deluged with many more. That use to work. So I have eliminated, the NYTimes, Washington Post, NPR , vehemently the Wall Street Journal, (amazed my computer survived the hit I put on it), Politico, even The Guardian, and a whole slew of others and am left with… at least some of HuffPost articles are balanced, but there is a dearth in the rest. So I will stick with you for news reports and occasionally check to see if the pile on has run it’s course.
Thanks, will bring good news when I find it…
I often have to press the like button several times or even push and hold it down. Don’t give up!!
It still resists!!
Maybe tech can look into it. Oh, maybe it works but after it’s checked so that trolls, which you know a lot about, smile, don’t get busy.
Do you mean the one at the top, or the ones in comments? The ones at the top are some-timey for me, also. It actually connects to facebook, so if you have an account and are signed in, it should work.
Yeah, I tried the signing in and it still doesn’t work for me. And yes, the one to like the diarist. I don’t have Facebook, so that might be why, thnks!
Thanks for posting this. I’m seeing the chattering class get defensive over voters trusting the evidence (Biden himself) with their own eyes instead of journalist’s “expert” “judgement” and they are increasingly butt-hurt over us regular folks NOT treating their bon mots as gospel.
As for that last tweet you showed from Mr. Waddams about Trump raping his wife. Hell, maybe trophy wife #1 (Ivana) isn’t the only one he raped at some point.
“66% saying they are more worried about honesty then age is a death blow for Trump’s reelection bid. If that holds Biden will win in a landslide.”
And then remember the polls predicted a red wave in the last House elections and didn’t even get a pink trickle – oh, and Trump in court documents admits his side pays people to swing the polls their way.
Oh yes, it came out in the hush money trial that Trump contracted through Cohen a company that would produce an algorithm to skew a poll being rum by a business magazine that showed Trump dead last in a list of influential real estate tycoons.
Probably due to the fact that we’re talking about Trump, the best the rigging algorithm could do was get him to 7th place. Needless to say, he refused to pay since he didn’t come on first.