Nothing has been normal about Lauren Boebert’s political career so why should we be surprised that the polling is off the charts? Generally speaking, undecideds are the smallest margin of polled voters, usually in single digits. Here, it’s 40%, which is a whopping figure and a few weeks before a primary, it’s an unheard of figure. How can almost half of the likely voters polled not know who they’re going to vote for? Either they don’t know or they don’t want to say? Newsweek:
A Kaplan Strategies poll conducted on May 31 found that 40 percent of registered voters plan to vote for Boebert, while 40 percent are undecided. Boebert’s challengers received a small percent of support: Peter Yu got 5 percent, Jerry Sonnenberg got 4 percent, Deborah Flora got 4 percent, Richard Holtorf got 4 percent and Mike Lynch got 3 percent. The poll surveyed 343 registered likely voters in Colorado’s 4th district and it had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.3 percent.
Boebert’s polling results in late May were an improvement from a Kaplan Strategies poll conducted on February 24.
The February poll found that Boebert had 32 percent of voter support while 49 percent were uncertain whom they would vote for. The poll had a sample size of 558 registered likely voters in the 4th district and a margin of error of plus or minus 4.2 percent.
Trump, of course, endorsed Boebert on Friday which may actually work against her in an increasingly purple state. One thing that both Trump and Boebert have in common is that they’re great at making enemies and trashing their public persona. Trump has no platform going into the election other than his personality and Boebert has no track record to run on, only her reputation as a Twitter troll.
As previously reported by Newsweek, in a straw poll conducted at a debate in Holyoke, Colorado, on March 3—a day after Trump first endorsed Boebert in her race—the congresswoman placed third behind Sonnenberg, a former state senator and Logan County commissioner, and veteran state lawmaker Ted Harvey.
In the poll, Boebert received 30 of the 184 votes cast while Sonnenberg got 55 votes and Harvey got 38. However, 184 votes are too low to be representative of broader trends.
These polling samples are all too small. But this is the best information that we have going forward into the race, which is to say that we’re going into Tuesday’s primary blind. The factor of all the undecideds is what is throwing off any meaningful analysis. And again, I find it hard to believe that there are that many undecideds. What I’m wondering is why more of the undecideds don’t want to name a candidate? In purely statistical terms, it is very strange to get this close to an election and have that margin of undecided voters.
The die is already cast. Mail-in ballots went out over two weeks ago. Boebert is counting on name recognition and MAGA to overcome her lack of legislative accomplishments, poor debate performance and reputation for repeated personal and family scandals. This is one race that the entire nation is watching for the pure soap opera aspect.
I think she gets “Willie and the Hand Jive” mistaken for her “Willien’ the Hand Job”.
I didn’t like the polling in 2016 where there was eight or more undecided. WTH? I don’t think they should have undecided as a choice or have ranked choice. But with what we have I would say BoBo is going to win. I would also say ‘who cares?’ The more complete jokes the Insurrectionists have the better. The district she is in will go fascist regardless.
Polls lie because people lie. They lie to make themselves feel better if they know what they’re doing is wrong, or will not look good to others. In our entertainment culture, lies are our meat and potatoes in every facet of life. How else does a pathological liar climb to the highest office in the land, commit heinous crimes, and remain free to do it all over again? We are a nation of liars. You might as well travel to the Delphi oracle to find answers.
Maybe that’s it. Maybe they plan to vote for Bobo and didn’t want to say. If so, then they deserve the government they’re going to get from her, which is none at all.
It’s a pity CO’s 4th is as full of blithering idiots as CO’s 3rd. I suppose with that many undecideds we have no idea until after the primary but still, that 40% support the dumb tw*t it’s embarrassing for Colorado.