There are three options which Donald Trump, or any criminal defendant for that matter, has: conviction, acquittal, hung jury. George Conway is saying that Trump realistically has only two, conviction or hung jury. If the jury is hung, then very likely the Manhattan district attorney would seek to retry the case, with a different jury. But that’s problematic on a time basis, because the odds of getting the retrial set before the November election are slim to none.

But that may be a strike against Trump right there, that this state court matter is still hanging in the air in November. George Conway believes that that is the best case scenario for Trump, because acquittal is not a realistic outcome. Actually, the way he’s explaining it, a hung jury may not be realistic, either. The Hill:

Conservative pundit George Conway predicted former President Trump will not be unanimously acquitted in the Manhattan hush money trial.

Conway told MSNBC’s Katie Phang on Saturday that testimony over the past few weeks showed that Trump is “neck-deep” in the case, where he faces 34 counts of falsifying business records. Conway added that it is “going to be hard for the jury not to conclude that [Trump] didn’t cause all of this.”

All 12 of the jurors must agree to the same decision on each of the 34 counts against Trump, or the case ends up as a mistrial. Conway said that Trump’s defense is just hoping for one juror to not agree to convict the former president.

“So, the defense has its work cut out for it. But all the defense has to do is convince one juror to hang the group. I don’t think they can get an acquittal. I don’t think they’re going to get 12 votes unanimously to acquit him,” he said. “I think their best shot, and that’s what they’re gonna do, is hope that there’s just some person on the jury who just refuses to convict.”

He also said that the defense needs to put together an “alternative explanation” during closing arguments “that raises reasonable doubt.” He noted that he is not sure what that alternative theory of the case would be.

Conway’s not sure and I daresay neither is Todd Blanche or Susan Necheles. They’re probably sweating bullets right now and not due to the early summer heat. The prosecution was meticulous in how it backed up each contention that the two star witnesses made with documentation. This is essentially a case about documentation and mislabeling and misdirecting of funds.

Another issue is what Trump knew and when he knew it and Trump’s a micromanager. He knew everything because he was the puppeteer pulling the strings.

It is conceivable that a single juror, or maybe more than one, could have some reasonable doubt, but I think that Conway is right, there’s no way acquittal can happen. So it’s conviction or a mistrial. A mistrial just kicks the matter down the road to post-election. And that’s fine. Trump, should he be elected, might be able to readily dispose of the federal cases against him, but not the state cases.

And frankly, if Trump is elected and attempts to self-pardon and immediately derail the federal cases, that’s going to cause a constitutional crisis right then and there. If you read the history of law, going back thousands of years to early Roman law and even tribal laws, before the establishment of any kind of a real city state form of government, it’s common sense that somebody can’t act as a judge in a case in which he’s a defendant. So Trump doing a self-pardon may not be as simple as he conceives it to be.

Trump has undoubtedly been informed of this reality by his lawyers, at least some of it. That would go a long way towards explaining his foul temper and acting out on Truth Social this weekend with hostile posts.

We have an interesting week ahead of us. Enjoy today, because tomorrow it’s back to business and things get crazy. If you think that Trump standing outside the courthouse with his sheaf of papers saying there’s no case is amusing, wait until a judge has head the foreman say, “Guilty as charged.” This week, or next, could be a real game changer.

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6 COMMENTS

  1. Sometimes I wonder if this rich man’s ‘democracy’ is even worth saving given the corruption at every goddamn level.

    • probably not. The only hope we have is a revolution resulting in all the wealthy and heads/boards of all craporations being put up against the wall.

      I don’t see a revolution any time soon so, no, this “democracy” truly is not worth saving and won’t be. The only way the ballot box would save us is if young people would get off their f*cking phones and learn something about what they are very, very close to losing. There is less of a chance of that happening than the revolution beginning.

  2. Guilty as charged.

    Guilty as obvious.

    The only question remaining, what is the penalty?

    ‘Many people’ are saying prison.

    • People come up to me with tears in their eyes asking why…why isn’t this 340lb diaper in prison? I answer because this is America. We worship money and those who worship money. Oh…and our culture hasn’t told the truth for 248 years. So we also worship liars. That’s why they get paid to be in congress, the Supreme Court, and on TV. Character? What the phuck is that?

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  3. Trump can’t pardon himself for this. It’s a,state case, not a federal one.

    It’s harder to slip in a ringer because of social.media. Trumpies love to post their devotion all over Facebook and Instagram etc all. We know that both sides did their homework during voir dire.

    And New Yorkers hate Trump. Loathe him. Despise him. The only ones who don’t are the exceedingly nausea tiny at no way would they end up on a jury with ordinary New Yorkers.

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