Forget the Polls, “Blowout For Harris” Predicted and This Makes Sense

Just as the TV set overtook the radio as the main source of entertainment and as black and white TV was soon replaced by color and landlines went into oblivion when cell phones came out, so the institution of political polling is being subsumed and replaced. It is about time. The results of the 2016 election were nothing short of seismic because we simply were not prepared for it. Day after day we read that Donald Trump has a 15% chance of victory to Hillary Clinton’s 85% chance. And then came the ice water bath that we will all remember the rest of our days.

2020 was very much the same although not as bad. Joe Biden was predicted to be the winner, albeit narrowly. But in 2024, we have something entirely different going on. We have neck and neck polls again, but what we see with our own eyes is grossly different than what we saw in 2020. In fact, what we see in 2024 since the formation of the Harris/Walz ticket is amazing. It is 2008 redux. A data scientist says we’re not dreaming. Expect a Goldwater/Johnson or Dole/Clinton blowout for Kamala Harris.

In my opinion, we’re going to see Trump deflate like the Hindenburg if he suffers a major defeat. Here’s why and how.

Increasingly, it appears that Trump is going to lose the election in a big way. Having already lost in 2016 by 3 million votes and 2020 by 7 million votes, there’s little to indicate he’s expanded his voter base; instead, by doubling down on hate, racism, and calls for violence he’s managed to offend a large part of the traditional GOP. When Dick Cheney says you’re too much of a fascist, you’re in trouble.

Now comes Northwestern University data scientist Thomas Miller, who’s developed an intriguing way to predict election outcomes. Instead of looking at polling data — which has proved woegeously unreliable over the past decade, probably because of cell phones — Miller looks at betting markets and draws his trends and predictions from them. They’re dynamic, updated instantly, and real money is on the line so there’s no margin for error.

In the 2020 race for president, for example, the polls showed Biden barely squeaking by and, in the Georgia senate elections, polls predicted Kelly Loeffler would beat Raphael Warnock and David Perdue would defeat Jon Ossoff. Miller, relying on the betting data, not only called all three races accurately, but hit Ossoff’s 1% victory on the nose and was only 0.2% off on Warnock’s victory.

If current trends continue, Miller’s system is predicting a blowout for Harris, with her getting around 55% of the popular vote:

“It would be somewhere between the defeats of Barry Goldwater by Lyndon Johnson in 1964, and Bob Dole by Bill Clinton in 1996,” Miller told Fortune magazine. “We’re talking about a blowout where Harris gets over 400 electoral votes and wins Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and every other swing state.”

So, if that happens, what does it mean for Trump?

My prediction is that by one hour after the networks agree that Donald Trump is a blowout nationwide loser, every elected major Republican in the country will abandon him.

Yes. I concur heartily. I have been saying for years now that when Trump and his MAGA cult finally flame out that every Republican still standing and even those not standing, are going to do a Nuremberg defense routine and claim that they never really were MAGAs, they were just going along to get along. They will say they were personally intimidated, they had to pretend to be MAGA or Trump would have had them primaried, or worse.

I’ve also been saying that right-wing personalities will abandon him in droves and this we have seen the beginnings of. Matt Drudge was the first to go. Drudge has survived as long and as well as he has because he knows how to follow the new trend of the day and Trump began to be passe a while back. Fox News began looking for a golden boy right after 2020 and thought they had one in Ron DeFuture. That didn’t last long. Then Joe Rogan jumped ship not too long ago. Even Kyle Rittenhouse divorced Trump although he immediately recanted and came back into the fold about 36 hours later. Expect that to continue.

It will be swift and certain, because in that moment every single one of those Republican elected officials is going to realize that Donald Trump no longer has any meaningful political power. In that moment, he’ll simply be an impotent cult leader whose votaries are elderly, deluded, and constitute much smaller numbers than most people realized.

Their worldview is rooted in racism, conspiracy theory, and several eccentric and outlier forms of fundamentalist Christianity, along with the Qanon cult. Together with low information voters, that base constitutes enough people to fill rallies and make Trump seem like he has the potential to win an election.

But the reality is that he hasn’t won anything since his freak 2016 electoral college victory, and that only happened by the intervention of Putin’s Facebook trolls and Jill Stein.

Americans will realize, in the moment that announcement is made, that Trump is really and truly going to prison, that the hundreds of millions of dollars in fines for his crimes will bankrupt him, and that he will no longer have the GOP as a money machine to pay his legal bills.

In other words, that’s the moment the reality sets in that he’s going down.

Down, down, down the dark ladder. And never lose sight of the fact that nobody loves this man. Yes, his cult members worship him because he gives them permission to be their worst selves and because his simplistic and wrong explanations of how things work make them believe for the first time in their lives that they finally understand politics. Yes, there is that. But nobody is close to Trump. His own children can’t stand him and all his other relationships are transactional.

All his sycophants are in league with him for money and power. When it becomes clear that he’s running low on one and has none of the other, they will depart for greener pastures.