The NY Times/Siena poll of the Presidential race this cycle has consistently been one of the polls with the most good news for Donald Trump, often showing him with a larger lead over President Biden than many of the other reputable polls. That began to change almost immediately when VP Kamala Harris took over at the top of the ticket with Biden’s decision to give in to pressure to abandon his quest for a second term, and has continued with Harris wiping out Trump’s lead in nearly every battleground and even putting in contention at least one, North Carolina, that was once thought to be safely in Trump’s column:
“New polls from The New York Times and Siena College indicate a tightened race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump in four sun belt states—Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina—marking a turnaround for Democrats as Harris benefits from increased support from Black, female and young voters.
NEW—Arizona: Harris has a lead on Trump among Arizona’s likely voters, boasting a 50% to 45% lead over the former President, according to the Times/Siena poll, and a 4-point spread among registered voters.
NEW—Georgia: Trump maintains a 4-point lead among likely voters, and a 7-point lead among registered voters, according to the poll.
NEW—Nevada: Trump has a 2-point lead among likely voters and registered voters—down from a nine-point lead over President Biden in some polls in May.
NEW—North Carolina: Harris now leads among likely voters (2 points) and registered voters (4 points), a major swing from Trump’s seven-point lead over Biden in May.
Pennsylvania: Harris leads Trump by one point, 49% to 48% with 3% of voters undecided, in a head-to-head matchup, according to Cook’s survey of 2,867 likely voters conducted July 26-Aug. 2, taking over Trump’s three-point lead over Biden there in a Cook poll from May.
Michigan: Harris also leads Trump here by three points, 49% to 46% with 5% of voters undecided; Trump led by two points here in May.
Wisconsin: Harris would beat Trump here by three points, 49% to 46% with 5% of voters undecided, if the election were held today, after Trump was tied with Biden there in May.”
Although more work remains to be done in Georgia and Nevada, the small leads Harris enjoys in Arizona, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and, now, North Carolina represent a vast improvement over Biden’s position just a few weeks ago.
Pollster Adam Carlson lays it out nicely on Twitter:
Shifts from NYT/Siena’s Biden vs. Trump polls from Apr 28-May 9 to their Harris vs. Trump polls from Aug. 8-14 (LVs):
*Head-to-Head*
AZ: D+11 shift
GA: D+5 shift
NV: D+12 shift*Full Field*
AZ: D+13 shift
GA: D+5 shift
NV: D+10 shift2nd poll since Nov showing a Dem lead in NC pic.twitter.com/qBnqR1747c
— Adam Carlson (@admcrlsn) August 17, 2024
Perhaps the most significant movement has taken place in Pennsylvania, as a Harris win there will almost certainly guarantee that Trump will never see the inside of the White House again.
Of course a lot can change between now and November, but this poll shows that we are in a lot better place than we were a month ago.
And with Trump and Vance out on the trail pi$$ing off voters every time they open their mouths, I think our chances are good.
Orangebob shitpants’ sphincter must be so tight you couldn’t get a pin up his ass with a sledgehammer.
Subtle. But I think I get what you’re trying to say Scott. Am I allowed to laugh out loud when I’m in my office alone???
“Of course a lot can change between now and November.”
Drumpf will continue to weaken and Harris will strengthen further.
But no matter how much she strengthens in the polls we must all get out and vote, we don’t want a repeat of what happened to Hilary.
From your lips to God’s ears, Concinnity