Oh, mama! If we keep having these see saw races, up and down up and down, I am going to have to get some tranquilizers or make bath tub gin or something. This is nerve wracking par excellance.
If you’ve followed my earlier piece here, with four updates, Herschel Walker has retaken the lead from Warnock three times, only to have a new batch of votes come in and be counted and then Warnock goes back up. A screenwriter could not write a more suspenseful night than what this has already been.
But as always, it comes down to math. Dave Wasserman, of Cook Political Report, has done the math and here’s his call.
I've seen enough: Sen. Raphael Warnock (D) defeats Herschel Walker (R) in the #GASEN runoff, giving Democrats a 51-49 majority in the Senate.
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) December 7, 2022
Here’s the math from Daily Kos:
If you only count counties that have >10% of their votes outstanding, that means that roughly 635,000 votes are on the table, according to NY Times estimates. 519,000 of them are in Democratic counties carried by Raphael Warnock in November. That’s 81.7% of the outstanding vote.Â
Walker’s votes have basically already been counted, barring some unforeseen upset.
Also, Fulton County just came in with 45,000 votes for Warnock.
Just as a comical aside, Spike Lee is at Warnock’s victory party and calling Trump “Agent Orange.”
What a night.
Christopher Bouzy, another data nerd who made big, is saying the same, that it’s only a question of by how much. Of course, when you remember Warnock got the most votes the last go around, this is hardly a shock.
CNN has called for Warnock as well!!!
Smart man, Dave Wasserman!!! Warnock wins! Thank God!!
The ‘election was fraudulent’ speeches are probably being written at the moment (and GQP legal beagles are probably preparing to claim that in the nearest deep red courtroom)