Why Putin Is Doomed To Lose

Like sands through an hourglass, so are the Days of Our Lives   Soap Opera lead in

This is only going to get worse from here on out. I have already chronicled the terrible tactical move of bringing up largely untested reservists in order to fill out the battle lines his and his General staff’s total incompetence has blown vast holes in, to the tune of an estimated 80,000 dead and wounded.

But now, his incompetence has led him to what I believe will be his fatal blunder. He announced a limited draft of 300,000 Russian males into the Russian military, ready to go to the front. And the contrast alone tells you everything you need to know.

In the days following the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky authorized the evacuation of Ukrainian women and children from the combat zone by rail, and decreed a conscription of all able bodied men between the ages of 18-55 to report to the army for service.

This led to an almost endless media show of tearful goodbyes at railroad stations, as women and children fled for safety, while their sons, brothers and husbands prepared to go off to war. Now even a week into the war, and already Zelensky and The Ukraine owned the media spotlight and the international narrative.

But it wasn’t just a media stunt. Like US men in the wake of Pearl Harbor, and following 9/11, men put their lives on hold to volunteer to protect America from foreign enemies. And the Ukrainian men did the same thing. And media video of Ukrainian soldiers being reunited with their loved ones after liberating formerly Russian held territory brings a tear to the eye.

But what of the Russian response to the wart? In the weeks following, the war, and especially after a couple of months of crippling sanctions, pretty much every Russian with the price of a plane ticket or a train berth were queueing up to get the hell out of Russia. This brain drain alone will cripple Russian attempts to recover from Putin’s folly. More worrisome were the street protests which erupted, as well as subliminal methods, such as store price stickers that bemoaned Putin’s false justification for his incursion into Ukraine.

And now we have Putin’s partial draft proclamation. The proclamation itself lays waste to Putin’s own original declaration that his invasion was in fact a special defensive military operation. In his draft proclamation, he refers to the war in Ukraine. Nothing quite like stepping all over your own messaging.

But look at what has happened in Russia since Putin’s draft declaration. The civil unrest protests all across Russia have only grown since his announcement. There are lines of Russian cars that are literally miles long at the border checkpoints that will get the occupants out of Russia, and avoid the draft. And there are reports of men literally breaking their own arms in order to avoid call up for military service.

Putin also signed a law that would hold deserters liable for up to 10 years of hard labor imprisonment if they deserted their posts. Zelensky, ever the master communicator, is going on the radio every night inviting Russian conscripts to lay down their arms. His arguments are persuasive. After all, who will know if the Russian troops dropped their arms and deserted, or were valorously captured in combat? Most certainly not Putin.

Putin can’t win. For starters, since the earliest days of the war, when things started going badly, Russian conscripts have simply dropped their arms and run, not only weakening Putin’s forces, but also leaving their equipment, including tanks and transports for the Ukrainians to claim. Russian mothers are sending their sons to distant relatives in the hinterlands to keep them from Putin’s grasp. And the Russian economy is collapsing.

But here’s the critical thing. The Ukrainian soldiers know exactly what they’re fighting for, and they’re highly motivated by nationalism. Shit. If conscripted Russian soldiers are throwing their arms down and running for the hills, what chance do a bunch of retailers, lawyers, accountants, and car mechanics thrown into a uniform, given 5 days of training, and shunted off to the front lines have? Putin has no logical way out, which makes him incredibly dangerous. Don’t touch that dial.