Why This Time Was Different On Guns

I wrote previously that this time it just felt different. It wasn’t just the senseless slaughter of 19 innocents and 2 teachers, it was also the chaotic, massively incompetent response from the police. I asked at the time, If the cops can’t save us, who can? The thought of the cops being outgunned was almost inconceivable.

It feels even more likely that it will finally succeed today. CT Senator Chris Murphy is hoping to have the actual legislative language written by the end of the week, and debate can start next week. What makes this time so different? Several reasons all coming together at the right moment.

Mitch McConnell seems almost inconsequential.  I have written repeatedly that McConnell burned his last favor when he literally begged the GOP caucus to vote against the non partisan J6 commission. And this time, I think the chickens are finally coming home to roost.

McConnell is busy being McConnell, parsing every word, and hedging every bet. While he says that he supports the negotiations, he won’t say if he’ll support the actual legislation. Forget the Democrats, how many times has Lucy McConnell pulled the football out from under his own caucus, egging them on, only to veto whatever it was at the last minute?

Difference is, this time nobody seems to care. McConnell had 5 members negotiate with the Democrats, and 10 GOP Senators have already signed on to the framework, enough to end the filibuster. McConnell may pride himself on being the Grim Reaper, but his caucus is hearing from someone even scarier. Their voters. In an election year.

The Right People At The Table – This wouldn’t have worked if it had just been a GOP plot to run out the clock and embarrass the Democrats. The GOP negotiated in good faith. Having John Cornyn lead the GOP team gave McConnell’s unsaid blessings to the efforts. And Pat Toomey had previously negotiated a gun control with Democrat Joe Manchin a few years ago, only to have McConnell hit it with a filibuster torpedo.

Who else to lead the Democrats than CT Senator Chris Murphy, representing the sandy Hook families. It was also smart to include Manchin and sinema, since they can torpedo any Democratic legislation, getting them to sign onto the framework right at the start makes it almost impossible for them to reverse themselves later. The same thing for Lindsey Graham.

The GOP Risk Factor – I don’t have the entire list of the 10 Republicans who have already signed on to the framework, but from the names and faces I’ve seen on television, they all share 1 thing in common. No political risk to themselves.

Lindsey Graham is up for 2 more cycles. PA Senator Pat Toomey is retiring, no more voters to face. The same thing goes for Rob Portman in Ohio. John Cornyn is doing his job representing his Uvalde constituents. Susan Collins is as safe as houses. I didn’t see a single GOP Senator on the list who is up for reelection this year.

Activism Really Works – You can’t give all the credit for this to the school shooting in Uvalde. As we have all seen too many goddamned times, no single event would be enough to make the GOP work against its own best interest.

The origins of this stretch back 10 years, and two groups get credit for being the originators. The Sandy Hook parents, and the Parkland high school survivors. In both cases, parents and survivors stopped simply taking the parts of grieving victims, and instead became lifetime dedicated gun control activists.

At Sandy Hook, several parents created gun control activist groups. But instead of just running them locally out of their basements, they took the word to the streets. Starting with neighboring states, they spoke, organized, and created a network of state chapters of their groups. This exponential growth made them stronger, allowing state chapters to work on their own state legislatures and federal representatives. You only have to look at the gun laws in blue states to see how effective they’ve been, along with becoming national power players.

The Parkland response was similar, but more social media centered, and with a twist. Being younger and much more social media savvy, they were able to take their cause nationally, and with almost immediate results. See the planned walkouts organized only months after the shooting. And since people on social media share or like their favorites, the growth was astounding.

Here’s the twist. 1st graders can’t vote, but most high school seniors can. And they did, in droves. Part of the Parkland teens strategy was to hold teen voter registration drives nationwide. And in 2018, more GOP incumbent A or A+ incumbents were defeated than in any other single election in history. And Parkland Marh for our Lives David Hogg is promising a repeat performance. Only in 2022,Parkland freshman students will be eligible to vote, as will they be nationwide.

The Silence Is Deafening – If you’ve been paying any kind of attention at all since the agreement was announced of a framework agreement in the Senate, you should have noticed one startling difference. Pretty much every Democratic politician, mass shooting survivor, victim family member, and gun control advocacy group has been flooding the airwaves to show their approval. It’s not everything they want, but it’s a substantive start.

What haven’t you heard? Well, Pepe LaPierre isn’t out there screaming about good guys with guns capping bad guys with guns. You’re not seeing many, if any other paid NRA shills out there toeing the NRA line either.

And where’s Cancun Teddy Cruz? Apparently hiding under the bed. And so are Matt Gaetz, Jim Jordan, Louie Gohmert, and the rest. Taking into account current public sentiment, no sane GOP incumbent is going to toe the line without a fat campaign contribution from the NRA. Which isn’t coming.

Why not? Because at this point, the NRA is a paper tiger. Embroiled in scandal, a messy internal lawsuit over corruption, facing the loss of their Charitable Organization in New York state, and one heartbeat from bankruptcy, the NRA has neither the cash, nor the attention span to fight this off.

And so, here we are, on the brink of a breakthrough moment. And from where I’m sitting, if this happens, the corner has been turned. The Jamestown flood didn’t start from a catastrophic explosion, it started with a single crack. And right now, the guys who used to run around with the cans of Spackle and trowels are nowhere in sight. When that tree branch shakes its load of snow, and it starts flowing downhill, better run like hell, because the avalanche isn’t far behind.