No. I don’t mean a literal instant replay of 2000, when Florida held the ultimate key to the White House. Right now, by the looks of the electoral map, Harris has multiple roads to 270 without Florida. But with an upset there, it could easily be the final nail in Traitor Tot’s coffin.
But there are some positive signs that the GOP may be losing it’s rock solid hold on Florida. It Started in 2019, when in the wake of the Parkland high school shooting, incredible youth activism literally forced the Florida legislature to trum back Florida’s reputation as The NRA’s national petri dish for pro gun legislation. Here’s some more recent history;
- GOP Senator Rick Scott is deeply unpopular. In fact in 2018, he beat incumbent Bill Nelson by 10,000 votes, a margin narrower than Biden won Georgia by. The GOP blames him for spending money like a drunken sailor in 2022 on losing Senate races, and he’s as far right MAGA as you can go
- Last week it was reported that not only is Trump losing popularity in the mighty GOP senior enclave of The Villages, but last week the Harris-Walz opened a campaign outreach office in The villages, and it hasn’t been firebombed yet
- Homeowners in three Florida counties are still steaming about higher property taxes since Flop Gov pulled Disney’s Special Economic zone privileges in his pissing contest with them over LGBTQ rights
- Earlier this week it was reported that the Democrats are outpacing the GOP in new voter registration. Watch for that to spike once Harris and Walz start making in person visits
- Speaking of Flop Gov, Pissantis is sh*t out of things to sell the rubes, being termed out in 2026. He embarrassed them with his presidential run, and even the toady legislature has stopped passing every insane bill he proposes
- Florida is home to one of the largest full time and part time senior populations in America. And Biden and Harris today announced the reduction of costs for the 10 most expensive life improving drugs for seniors on Medicare, with more to follow
- A lot of that senior population are veterans, and Florida has more than its share of military bases. And I can’t imagine those veterans and active duty personnel being happy with Beggar Vance slamming the service of a guy who spent six times as long in uniform than Vance did
- And critically, there is a pro choice initiative on the ballot this November, which is likely to explode voter turnout
- According to Voto Latino, Trump is bleeding Hispanic support, and activism among younger Hispanics is on the rise
One thing I’ll be looking closely at is the results of the upcoming Florida primaries. If Scott’s percentage is south, then he’s vulnerable, and if Nikki Haley takes another 20% from Trump, he’s in trouble, since they ain’t coming back in November.
But here are two things to remember. First, Florida is an exceptionally fertile ground for an honestly delivered message of Hope and Joy after not only eight years under the shadow of Trump’s toxic cloud, but six years of Pissantis’s poisonous politics. People are sick of the sturm und Drang, and would like to go back to feeling good when they get up in the morning.
And more importantly, as I wrote a couple of days ago, and some media types are starting to back me up on this today, it took eight long years, but finally Trump’s one-trick-pony has collapsed in its stall. And on the good news front, there’s actually an empirical timeline of this happening before to El Pendejo ex Presidente.
Earlier today on MSNBC, Media Matters head Angelo Carusone laid out the timeline of Trump’s success in The Apprentice. In its season, when the concept was new and fresh, and Trump was actually entertaining, The Apprentice pulled in some 20 million weekly viewers. By the fourth season, his weekly viewership was down to 10 million. And by year seven, his viewership was down to just under 5 million a week. Which just goes to show that you can change the faces around the conference table, and the dog-and-pony-show weekly tricks, but the same-old-shtick is still the same-old-shtick. Makes you appreciate the runs of shows like M*A*S*H and All in the Family of more than 20 years with basically the same cast.
The last I heard, Trump’s most likely of what is becoming a dwindling number of paths to 270 is to hold North Carolina, where currently he trails in one poll by 2 points, and flip Georgia and Pennsylvania. But if the Democrats can pull an upset and flip Florida, then it’s basically game over, regardless of North Carolina. The Democrats can even lose Pennsylvania, and the Florida buffer would still put them over 270. Florida alone is not likely to be the tipping point it was in 2000, but it sure as hell could shorten the suspense. 79 days.
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It’s a shame the FL Democratic Party in the state and most counties pretty much gave up years ago in FL. Oh, the offices and “leaders” were still there but they mostly seemed to try to avoid being noticed by the GOP. A “please don’t hurt me” capitulation. In the last year or so we’ve seen signs that at least in some places Democrats, and there ARE Democrats in FL have had enough of that shit. I fear we are in a too little too late situation BUT the abortion initiative has an awful lot of grassroots Democrats trying to organize enough to do what their county Democratic Party officials SHOULD have been doing all along. In fact, since in FL just getting comfortably over 50% won’t get it done extra effort is going into grassroots GOTV work because they have to crack 60% for passage. From what I can tell rank and file Democrats (and Independents) are sure as hell going to work like hell to pull off what would be almost a miracle.
That of course will, with some help provide coattails in the Senate race, and the Presidential one too. I don’t see Harris/Walz carrying FL, nor unfortunately Senator Skeletor going down although he might wind up having to kick in a whole boatload of his own freaking ill-gotten riches to win re-election. The main thing is that if polling shows Harris/Walz within or right on the margin of error it will do two things. Make Team Trump and the GOP spend a LOT of time and money to protect FL, and second as a bonus drive Trump batshit insane! He’s his own worst enemy and the rants he’ll have will hurt him and the GOP everywhere else. In a sick way, he might set up residence down there in October and make most if not campaign appearances in FL. Maybe almost all from Mar A Lago. That of course will deprive MAGAs elsewhere who need to see Trump in person, or at least know he’s in their state of their much needed shot of hate. He can’t afford to lose ANY of that vote.
It will make for some interesting choices for the DNC and the Harris campaign before the end of the month. Do they set up some field offices in FL and put real resources into FL. It could make the difference on the abortion referendum so they have to consider it. However there are other states that are truly competitive. This will be worth keeping an eye on.
denis ny friend…If the Harris campaign, as well as the 2018 Blue Tsunami, and the Parkjand activism teaches us nothing else, it teaches us, NEVER UNDERESTIMATE THE POWER OF GRASSROOTS ACTIVISM…
I agree. The trick is focusing that activism without dampening the enthusiasm fueling it. It’s all too easy for “big shots” to try and come in and instead of providing some guidance, training and resources wind up attempting to take complete control.
“One thing I’ll be looking closely at is the results of the upcoming Florida primaries. If Scott’s percentage is south, then he’s vulnerable, and if Nikki Haley takes another 20% from Trump, he’s in trouble, since they ain’t coming back in November.”
Um, I think Florida held its presidential preference primaries months ago. There’s no way that Florida could’ve sent a delegation (which was initially to have included Barron until Melania shut that down) if they hadn’t already held that primary.
After doing some double-checking, yeah. The presidential primary was back in March and even though Haley had withdrawn by that point, she got just under 14% of the vote (DeSantis, amazingly, managed to get a little more than 3 1/2%).
Yep…But Trump voted early yesterday in Palm beach for the FL State primary election…
Republican and Democratic primaries will take place in Florida on August 20, 2024.
Time to hammer home project 2025 and the GOP plan for Medicare and Social Security. Last I checked Sudenland south is awash with old folks. They’re not all rich retirees.