Well that was almost anticlimactic. With all of the media hype about this ruling on the abortion pill case, I had expected either angels with horns and cherubs, or demons with fire and brimstone. And instead it turned out to be nothing more than the dog bringing in the paper from the porch.

I wrote a day or so ago, when Alito’s stay was extended for a measly two days that apparently the court already had five judges to vote to extend the stay, and wanted the extra time to work on the messaging in the ruling to the 5th Circuit Court. It was better than I thought. In the end, only Slapsy Sammie Alito and Clarence Gimme Thomas dissented, and each with a single sentence dissention, making the final tally 7-2.

This decision, as basically legally insignificant as it is, speaks volumes. In reality all the ruling does is exactly what I predicted it would. It permanently stays Texas Judge Dungstomper’s decision from going into effect while the case weaves its way through the 5th Appellate Circuit Court. And if the original ruling survives the 5th Circuit, the stay remains in place while the SCOTIS decided whether or not to take up the case.

But it’s actually much more nuanced than that. As I wrote earlier, I believe that the Supreme Court wanted those extra two days to work on the messaging of their ruling. I still believe that is true. I haven’t had the chance to actually see or read the ruling, but I think I have a pretty good idea of what it says under the surface.

Let’s be clear. The Supreme Court isn’t going to tell the 5th appellate court to do anything. That court is autonomous. But it is well within the writing skills of a bunch of Ivy League educated lawyers to make the inference perfectly clear that they don’t want this mega turd landing on their doorstep. And since every judge’s nightmare is getting spanked by the Supreme Court, this ruling may put a slightly different bent to the considerations.

Now let’s move on to the ruling itself. What impresses me is the breadth of the decision vote. If the ruling had been 5-4, that would indicate to me that most likely Justice Brewski Brett had his panties in a bunch about state legislatures tromping all over his assurances that Rights of free interstate travel would not be infringed. And judicial vampire that he is, Kavanaugh wanted more time to find some kind of conservative legal word salad to justify taking reproductive rights away from 52% of the population.

But this isn’t that, not by a long shot. There were four conservative judges who came to the same conclusion that Judge Cowpoke in Texas jumped the shark. But why would they care? Which tells me that these justices were thinking about their image, their reputation, and their legacy. And here’s why that matters. If it was a 5-4 decision, and the case came to SCOTUS, then all the plaintiffs would have to do is to convert the probably malleable Kavanaugh back over to their side. But if it gets to the SCOTUS, the plaintiffs are confronting four conservative judges that have already voted against them, and they have one 30 minute oral argument in which to bring three of them around. Not good odds.

And now for the fun part. For every man, woman, and child that flooded the Supreme Court and surrounding street during the Dobbs deliberation, making it almost impossible for the Justices limos to get out of the building and away to safety. Stand up and take a bow!

And for every man, woman and child who took to the streets in cities across America for months on end following the Dobbs decision, Stand up and take a bow!

And for all of you who came out and peacefully stood in the streets across from the homes of conservatives’ Supreme Court Justices, who heckled them in stores, and restaurants where they were eating with their families and friends? stand up and take a bow!

Because public pressure works. And public shaming works. And public humiliation works! These fat, pompous conservative *ss clowns thought that they could safely and comfortably ride out the outrage because they were privileged, they were protected. But then The Great Unwashed started serenading them over breakfast through the windows, mobbing the streets, not only to delay their wheels, but also the wheels of their neighbors. And ruining the dinners of everybody in that $500 restaurant when they’re in there. I believe it was Brewski Brett who had the owner of a fancy restaurant ask him to stop coming until it blew over, because he was losing reservations.

And from where I’m sitting, that’s what had at least a peripheral effect on the ruminations of those four conservative justices. They went through this once, and the last thing they want to have to do is to go through it again. My personal guesstimate is that it’s 50-50 that the 5th Circuit Appellate Court shoots down the original Texas ruling. And if they do, and the plaintiffs apply to the Supreme Court, I find it highly likely that the court will decline to take the case, and let the appellate court ruling stand. Remember, the vote was 7-2, and it takes four justices to put a case on the docket. I think the kiddies learned the first time from touching the hot stove burner.

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  1. While I don’t discount public sentiment, I think they may have had other considerations as well. First, the plaintiffs lacked standing – they claimed they might have to, in the future, provide care to some woman for whom this drug didn’t work as advertised. Two of the plaintiffs are dentists – who goes to a dentist for an abortion? – and in the 20 plus years this drug has been approved not one of the plaintiffs had ever provided care to anyone using this drug.

    Also, big Pharma was worried about how this decision could effect other drugs the FDA has approved. So while the rethug majority on the court may be theocrats, they are also corporate friendly. Big Pharma isn’t going to funding anyone or anything that effects their bottom line – buh bye Senate and House rethug majorities. If the democrats retain the Senate and regain the House, SCOTUS might look quite different.

    So, this case was one YUGE stinker that would put the exclamation mark on this illegitimate court and they aren’t that stupid.

  2. What is it with dentists, being of a certain age, the wife and I have fairly regular dentist visits. On more than one occasion we get creepy political views brought in during an examination or procedure. I know, I live in Texas, but really.

  3. I agree with most of what you wrote, it would have caused a national upheaval had they sided with this loony, obscure and heavily anti-abortion Texas judge. What I found offensive was your referring to the people who protested and marched as the great unwashed. The protesters were mostly every day normal men and women who are sick and tired of right wing bullshit and who wash regularly.

    • To me, it doesn’t read offensive to me. I read ‘the great unwashed’ not as a knock on us regular folk but a knock AGAINST holier than thou justices who think they are the privileged.

  4. While I don’t necessarily disagree with your assessment re the odds of the plaintiffs swinging 5 justices their way, I don’t trust the conservative composition of this court one bit and I would not be at all shocked by them staying the batsh*t crazy course they’ve been on and finding some way to entirely or partially uphold the district court’s rulings.

    And if we didn’t already know Alito was broken, his FOUR PAGE nonsensical dissent should completely confirm and cement any suspicions.

  5. I hit post too soon.

    Why I don’t trust this client is because after the reasoning in Dobbs it was clear to me that there were no set of facts that would persuade this court to leave Roe intact. Dobbs wasn’t a close decision! 6-3 with Roberts concurring in the judgment and only feeling that the viability standard in Roe and Planned Parenthood be done away with. Roe was going to be overruled is some form or fashion by this supermajority SCOTUS. This plan was decades in the making and respectfully protesters were not going to nor will they make a difference to these indoctrinated and dyed in the wool true believer justices.

    Dems have been playing checkers for 20 years with the senate and SCOTUS and the gop finally got their checkmate. Sad times for this beautiful country.


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