There IS reason to hope a way will be found to end the war in Ukraine. However every country must understand any promise by Putin he’ll leave Ukraine alone and not attempt again to annex it won’t be worth the paper the peace treaty/agreement is written on. Without teeth in the form of instant western/NATO support by which I mean full support including equipment, and troops/aircrews in Ukraine ready to respond to an attack from Russia Putin or any successor he’d approve of will try again.
We tend to think of the war Putin started in Ukraine as being only a few years old. Actually he started it over a decade ago. That it went on so long and escalated to the current attempted takeover is for two reasons. Putin’s lust to recreate the old USSR and Ukraine giving up the LARGE arsenal of nukes on its soil. The signatories to the Budapest agreement where the U.S., the UK and others “assured” Ukraine of it’s sovereignty/security from Russian (which also was a signatory) aggression. When Putin took over Crimea and invaded two sections of eastern Ukraine the west and NATO powers broke their promise.
The response to Putin by those who promised help if Russia tried to retake control of Ukraine starting back when Obama was still President planted the seeds for the current war. Putin simply was never going to accept Ukraine becoming not just a free and democratic country, but worse becoming part of NATO and fully aligned with the European Union. NATO and it’s Article V (An attack against one was an attack against all) was his greatest fear. Yet for a long time he didn’t have to worry. The level of corruption in Ukraine that continued when Putin’s puppet govt. fled ensured they were a long way from qualifying for membership.
It’s also why the west was hesitant to respond with force when Putin began taking over chunks of Ukraine over a decade ago. That, and Putin feeling he needed to more fully consolidate his control of Russia was enough to keep things relatively limited. However his alarm grew alongside his dream of recreating the USSR as Ukraine truly started getting its act together. It was wholly aligning with the west/Europe and eventual NATO membership was clearly on the table. THAT is why he initiated the current, full scale war. The question not enough people want to face or talk about is whether Putin would have done what he’s done if Ukraine had refused to give up the nukes (or at least some of them) the USSR had placed there?
Had Ukraine remained a nuclear power, one that was corrupt but with a meaningful (and ultimately successful) attempt underway to clean up said corruption the non-Russian signatories to the Budapest Agreement might well have responded to push back against Russia all the way back in 2014. That’s assuming Putin would have dared to take over chunks of Ukraine in the first place. I realize I’m writing one of my dense articles BUT I beg you to indulge me because it bears on where things are now, and what it will take to end the war in Ukraine.
I want to take you back to the breakup of the old USSR. In the mid-1990s when Bill Clinton was President Ukraine found itself with a third of Russia’s nuclear weapons on its soil as explained by the BBC. To put it more bluntly it was one of the largest nuclear weapons stockpiles in the world. However as noted those nukes technically belonged to Russia. They of course wanted them back, if only to keep Ukraine from having them. From Ukraine’s perspective if Russia got frisky with them reminding the country that had abused them so badly and for so long “back off because we can nuke you right back” was a card to consider keeping. As the BBC article explains there are now those who wonder if Ukraine did the right thing giving up those nukes. Or at least holding on to some of them, perhaps some tactical one that wouldn’t cost anything close to what maintaining an ICBM and silo costs.
Other former USSR satellite countries had some nukes but Ukraine was the one everyone was looking at. Having it under their control was always a linchpin to the USSR. And it had a population that was smart, creative, ambitious to build a free country and joyous at FINALLY getting out from under Russia’s thumb. Still, the fact is it would have been expensive for Ukraine to maintain all those nukes and especially the ICBMs and their launch silos. They felt that money could be better spent. However they had a long-ingrained reason not to trust Russia despite it’s own attempts at the time to move past authoritarian rule.
That led to the Budapest agreement. Ukraine would become the only country to give up a stockpile of nukes in exchange for assurances (the language in both the Russian and Ukrainian translations suggested more like guarantees) Russia would never invade Ukrainian soil unless first attacked. It seemed to all like the right thing to do. What no one knew THEN was Russian President Yeltsin had brought a forty something former KGB analyst into his inner circle. Putin. What Yeltsin and so many others in Russia outside the KGB didn’t know was how fiercely Putin believed the breakup of the USSR was the worst thing ever in world history. He vowed to ‘fix’ things which even friends likely assumed was just talk.
But damned it he didn’t worm his way into Yeltsin’s confidence and leverage that into becoming Russia leader and then dictator. And all the while as he was growing and consolidating power he was at work gaming out his grand plan for a new USSR. Again, Ukraine was the linchpin. The more Ukraine shifted towards becoming part of the European Union, and worse eventual membership in NATO the more crazed Putin got. For a couple of decades the Budapest Memorandum had been honored by all. I urge to to click on the just provided Wikipedia link. It goes into detail the provisions and understanding them is crucial to understanding the situation we now face.
The Cliff Notes version of the agreement’s Cliff Notes is that by “assurances” everyone (including Russia at the time) felt it was actually a guarantee – that in exchange for Ukraine allowing the international community to remove the nukes (which again actually belonged to Russia) in exchange they’d get:
1) Russia promising to leave Ukraine alone and definitely not invade Ukrainian soil, and
2) If someday Russia broke it’s word that the western signatories (and their allies, i.e. NATO) would provide if not NATO Article V help a robust response to kick Russia’s ass back across the border.
In fact, at the time what we did when Iraq took over Kuwait was held as an example. For those who don’t recall regime change was never the goal – the coalition Bush 41 assembled never intended to depose Saddam Hussein. No, they simply wanted to kick Iraq’s ass back inside its own borders and degrade their military capability to a point where they couldn’t threaten other countries. It was Bush and the coalition’s belief that it was up to the Iraqi people to depose Saddam. If kicking his ass made him weak enough elements would rise up and do it it would be a bonus.
Putin wasn’t as bold as Saddam, at least at first but he thoroughly tested the limits of what he could get away with via annexation of Crimea and use of proxy troops to take over two sections of eastern Ukraine. As I said, what made him panic was Ukraine getting to a point where full integration into the European Union was going to happen and NATO membership wouldn’t be far behind. He rolled the dice. And lost. His army turned out to be nowhere near as competent as he and frankly the west had thought. Though he had a seemingly endless supply or artillery, shells and even tanks the newer ‘front line’ tanks theoretically capable of taking on western ones quickly got chewed up. So did late Cold War stuff in storage. And then tanks that had been mothballed so long they had to be cannibalized to create usable ones. Which have also gotten chewed up just like his infantry troops.
Even artillery and tubes started to reach low levels. However he still had missiles and drones which he doesn’t seem (at least with drones) in danger of running short on anytime soon. He still hopes by using them against civilians, literally committing war crimes he can bully his way to getting Ukraine. Putin was only partially correct about then President Biden. He was right that Biden wouldn’t send American troops or advocate other NATO nations do so. Where Putin was wrong was how swiftly Biden marshalled a massive amount of military and humanitarian aid to Ukraine. And that other countries, Poland in particular who’d also experienced the boot of the old USSR on their neck would provide shelter for refugees.
From where I sit, and especially after yesterday’s goings on at the White House Putin and his puppet Trump are in a tough spot. It’s clear Europe’s leaders made it known THEY are going to to all they can for Ukraine. And it’s a LOT more than Trump has realized. If they didn’t flat-out say so the message was you can either join in with us or you and the Unites States can get left behind. And when the free world gathers for important events the Unites States will be off to the side at the kid’s table.
Just how in the hell is Trump going to deal with Putin given that? That leads me to think Putin will extract a terrible price well into next year before finally agreeing to end the war. Given how “Russified” (with actual Russian people) if I were Ukraine I’d actually let them keep at least a chunk of the two areas in the east they’ve occupied since 2014. Russia gives up Crimea in exchange for being allowed to dock CIVILIAN ships there and at Ukrainian ports. Putin’s control in Russia is such he can sell that to his people, pointing out he’s destroyed the land along the southern coast of Ukraine and it’s port cities.
I wrote yesterday about Putin’s health and there are in fact real reasons to consider how many years he’s got left. However if his doctors think he’s still got at least 3-5 years where they can keep him ‘up and functioning’ rest assured he will BREAK any peace treaty just as he’s done before and is doing as I write this. The way I see it the only thing we can do is a variation of the first Gulf War.
Russia’s military has already been significantly degraded but we need to help make it truly crippled. And support the strategic effort Ukraine has started to degrade it’s ability to rebuild by destroying factories. Second, in return for a ‘promise’ not to grant Ukraine NATO membership for a serious length of time, say ten years western powers and Ukraine will create a joint air base in the middle of Ukraine! One with the capability to forcefully respond with fighter and attack aircraft if Russia tries another invasion. This would come with the bonus of continual training of Ukrainian Air Force personnel (pilots/aircrews and maintenance folks) on wester aircraft and their weapons.
In addition to that, a couple of joint bases for ground troops too. One between that air base and the Russian border, and another up north less than a hundred miles from Belarus. With a couple of training areas to the west and east of the ground troops base. I’m sure the army would love to be able to cycle units of our soldiers through a winter of cold weather training each year! But the point is that with western including U.S. forces rotating in and out of those bases Russia would face an immediate and full-throated response/ass kicking it it tried to do what they’ve done again. Also, small Russian forces should be allowed at those bases, not to train but observe only. So they can report back to superiors how bad an idea another invasion would be! Again, Putin could spin that to his people well enough to avoid a 9mm headache.
But the point I’ll conclude this admittedly dense read on is that Putin can’t be trusted to honor ANY agreement he might enter into. He and most likely any successor will only be held in check by force. I know it will be controversial to suggest this but this ole jarhead thinks that during the winter we and other NATO countries should send some units to Ukraine for training. We can say they’re simply providing a little cold weather training but in reality it would all be mutual. And once the spring thaw happens in addition to fighting Ukrainians Russia would a taste of what it would be like to fight NATO and allies.
That would swiftly bring Russia to agree to end the war and give up if not all then most of its gains since 2014. And following through with my suggestion of joint bases in Ukraine would keep Russia on it’s side of the border for good. Anything less and Putin will continue to play his games.
Well thought out plan Denis! I think it would be excellent if actually done the way you lay it out. All we can do is wait and see how it plays out in reality. I was just thinking that Putin’s list of demands are ridiculous, basically he wants everything plus more. I really appreciate that Ukraine has been able to take over some Russian soil. I know Zelenskyy won’t just roll over and let him have it all and more.
Every kidnapped coed made agreements with Ted Bundy…they ended up dead. Putin and trump share a significant trait…THEIR WORD MEANS NOTHING!
How does this topic impact your daily life or society in general?
As for my own daily life, and since you seem new here when I was 26 I became a United States Marine. The Col. in command at the selection board overruled the members on mine and another guy’s applications for Officer Candidate school due to my age. I happen to know this because a member was someone I’d met and even flown with, and he had a former squadron mate a little older than me from my hometown. He even got Charlie on the phone to assure the Col. I’d make it through OCS just fine. But no dice. This was at the time of the Barracks bombing in Beirut. Even though I was “off the hook” and could have walked away from the Corps I enlisted. And volunteered for infantry. I wound up being trained in a specialty – anti-tank/assault. Bluntly put kill Russian tanks with the missiles we used back then and also to use explosives.
These were both skills needed (and still are) in Ukraine and though forced into early retirement on disability I applied via groups recruiting former American military types to go. I was politely turned down. But I’d go tomorrow if they’d let me. And other writers on this site as well as regular readers can tell you I’m not lying about that.
From the outset Ukraine has been fighting a proxy war against Russia in which our country and the free world benefits. Let Putin have Ukraine and we are on the fast track to a newer version of the old USSR. So yes, I could write all day long about how supporting Ukraine benefits me, our country and other free countries. I never had children of my own but most people I grew up with did. They’ve got grandkids and if Russia is allowed to take over Ukraine it won’t stop. You HAVE to know that. That means a wider war in which young Americans will wind up fighting and dying in Ukraine and other European countries. LOTS of Americans.
Or we could fully enable Ukraine to do what we did to Saddam in the first Gulf War. Kick them back inside their own border and shit-hammer them to the point they can’t threaten anyone else. Doing that would be cheaper in money and lives including American.