If any more cracks show up in the foundation of the Trump misadministration you will swear there’s been a nine point earthquake on the Potomac recently. The number of people on Trump’s $hit list is growing. We have Pete Hegseth at the top, with perhaps not the most screw ups but definitely the most flamboyant ones. We have Kash Patel hitting the headlines all the time for all the wrong reasons. We have Dan Bongino, who might be a shadowy figure ready to split from the big time, if Lev Parnas’ sources are accurate. And now we have Kristi Noem.
ICE is a flaming joke. If you caught the latest piece a few days ago in the Daily Mail, which we cited to here, you saw that the recruits that ICE is finding are fat, illiterate, combatative, “unable to tie their own laces” and thoroughly unqualified for any kind of law enforcement — let alone Homeland Security. The buck has to stop somewhere and right now it looks like it has found its way to Kristi Noem’s doorstep. The Bulwark:
For weeks, a rumor has been circulating in political circles that Noem may soon be on the outs. It briefly surfaced in a CNN report a few weeks back that listed her first among the cabinet officials who could be caught in a year-end turnover, noting that while Trump himself has been happy with Noem, top White House officials have grown frustrated with her tenure—specifically, her employment of her divisive and combustible chief adviser, Corey Lewandowski.
Noem has downplayed any tensions or concerns. And in a text to me, Lewandowski called bullshit on any talk of turnover. “None of that is true,” he said Thursday evening.
But in conversations with three former DHS officials—who served in both the Biden and Trump administrations and are still in touch with current staff—it was made clear that Trump is indeed considering moving on from Noem. Two of those officials said they believed such a move could happen “really soon,” relaying that they’ve been told Noem has been taking on less of a role in directing department memos. But they and the third official also cautioned that the situation is fluid. Trump could decide to let Noem oversee the launch of new enforcement operations planned for January and February. And, as always, the president’s views are fickle and often heavily influenced by the latest person to grab his ear.
Still, there are a few factors that make the possibility of a Noem exit likely.
The first is that Trump may want to begin the New Year with a clean slate, hoping that fresh blood could improve either the execution of his signature mass deportation policy or—more importantly—the public’s perception of it.
The second is that a prominent, if slightly faded, Republican governor may be soon on the job market, ready to burnish his MAGA credentials with a Trump appointment.
Glenn Youngkin will no longer be governor of Virginia after his successor, Abigail Spanberger, gets sworn in on January 17. Although Youngkin has cut an image for himself as a fleece vest–wearing business-oriented Republican, he has also shown that he can operate in relative comfort within the confines of MAGA. And Trump has taken to him, too. CNN reported that while Youngkin would be up for any open cabinet or administration roles, he was hoping to avoid taking the reins of DHS—and everything that comes with it—in favor of something more chamber of commerce–friendly.
The three former DHS officials I spoke with said Youngkin has been considered as a possible candidate as recently as after the November election to replace Noem should she get the boot, but it is unclear if he is still a candidate for the top job.
That’s a somewhat wild proposition, that Kristi Noem gets the boot and Glenn Youngkin moves into the post, but it’s not the nuttiest proposition that you will hear. ICE does have a terrible image in the country’s eye. Just this past Friday we saw singer Sabrina Carpenter score a major win over the White House, who went along with her cease and desist order to take down the video with her song “Juno” embedded in it.
Days before that the Daily Mail ran a piece on how egregiously unqualified applicants are being sent for training to Quantico, some of them even before drug screening results come back — meaning that people using illicit drugs are in training to go out on the streets and arrest “illegals” while potentially under the influence themselves.
The reputation that ICE has could scarcely get worst. It’s conceivable that Glenn Youngkin could make it better. And since Trump threw Elise Stefanik under the bus for U.N. Ambassador, it’s not like Kristi Noem shouldn’t expect the same treatment — the obvious difference being that Stefanik didn’t do the job and screw it up, she was merely the nominee. And yes, this story gets worse. They always do.
NEARLY EVERY PERSON I spoke to about Noem’s status at DHS—and the future of the agency—brought up another Trump-adjacent figure when talking about what comes next: Isn’t Stephen Miller the one in charge anyway?
“There’s no review of Noem except for two things,” Sen. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) told me. “Whatever Miller decided was happening with DHS, she went with. And number two, the waste. Buying two luxury jets while the country is still dealing with increasing costs of everything shows she’s out of touch.” Gallego was referring to the purchase of two Gulfstream jets for Noem, transactions that reportedly cost the government $172 million.
But beyond the waste, he said, Americans are tired of the administration’s harshly punitive deportation policy, no matter who is overseeing its implementation. “They don’t want families separated, parents of U.S. citizens deported, people working here treated like criminals,” said Gallego. “I don’t think there’s much of a difference if she changes—just another person in the seat.”
The policies DHS has been tasked with carrying out are the brainchild of Miller, and they are about as popular as the man himself—which is to say, not popular at all. And the public’s souring on the highly visible and frequently disturbing work of DHS has given rise to a particular kind of money issue in advance of next year’s midterms.
“There’s a race to get an astronomical amount of money out the door before Democrats take over the House,” a prominent immigration advocate, asking for anonymity to speak candidly about the current landscape. “They’re hiring ICE agents, juicing contracts for the social media snuff films they’re doing, building private prisons. There’s a huge incentive to spend money fast, and whoever’s in charge, the more they do the job, the more they’re driving public opinion against the party.”
So what will Trump do? Allow Noem and Lewandowski to run wild? Or announce some Happy New Year clean slate and appoint Youngkin and declare how he’s going to get ICE shipshape? And let’s face it, whatever Youngkin would do, if he ran the department with his eyes closed, he could scarcely do a worse job than Noem and Lewandowski. Word on the street is that Lewandowski “is the one actually running the show at the department, with Noem serving more as a television and media presence than a true leader.”
One of the sources I spoke with regarding the threat to Noem’s job—a former senior DHS official who remains in contact with high-level DHS officials—said that the mood at the agency is dark, and that Noem’s time is widely expected to come to an end soon. “Things are fucked,” this former official said, relaying the sentiments of a current high-level DHS official: “‘It’s horrible, they’re going to destroy this place. I’m just hoping the new secretary gets here in time.’”
Will ICE follow FEMA into the tarpit and sink? Or will Glenn Youngkin save the day? Only in Trump world would we be asking such Bizarro World questions to begin with.
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Friends, I hate to bother you for money at Xmas time but the reality is that 2025 has been the worst year we’ve had since we were a fledgling site back in 2018 — 2020. We’ve done everything that we can and we can’t fight the fact that half of the electorate is tuned out and depressed from the 2024 election going south.
The irony is that if you’re reading this at all, you’re not the population we’re trying to reach. We’re trying to get the people who used to come here religiously to return and engage with us. In the meantime, we have operating costs and overhead, like any business. If you’re able to help, we need it. If you have already contributed, thank you. Ursula
