Deposing the dictator of Venezuela was never about drugs despite Trump’s bluster. No, as many suggested about oil all along. Trump wants the U.S. to have control of that country’s oil and a compliant regime beholden to him to ensure U.S. oil companies have unfettered access. Since sending in a Delta Force team to kidnap/arrest Maduro (and his wife) Trump has flatly rejected the notion of opposition leader and the most recent Nobel Peace Prize winner taking over. He’s lying when he says she doesn’t have the support of the people. He’s also claimed Venezuela’s VP (who he assumes will be his puppet) has been sworn in which seems to be new to HER. Like opposition leader Machado she isn’t falling all over herself welcoming Trump calling the shots in Venezuela.
That’s a tough subject for another day. Let’s focus on the here and now. A day after the bigly news it’s now clear the Trump Venezuela policy and boat strikes wasn’t about fentanyl. Or even cocaine. Nope, it was about gaining control of that country’s oil reserves. For reasons I’ll get to Trump wants control of that oil not just because there are vast proven reserves, but because it’s in a place where U.S. Oil companies won’t face the same monitoring for safety and environmental impact as they do here.
Then there’s this: I don’t know about you but I’m having Iraq flashbacks. Bush 43’s invasion of a country that didn’t like their ruler and assuming the U.S. would be welcomed with open arms and warring with us when the people realized we just wanted control of their oil. As anyone reading this knows that didn’t work out as planned. We spent a ton in blood, international credibility and money too and got what in the oil business they call a “dry hole.” However Venezuela has a LOT of oil. The biggest known reserves in the world in fact and Trump wants control of it. That much is now clear.
As you can see from this article in the LA Times now that the former leader is locked up in an American prison on drug charges (again with flashbacks – this time to Noriega) Trump is confidently saying WE will be taking over control of Venezuela until whatever ‘transition’ he deems ok is done. There is no timeline on said transition to what Trump thinks would be an acceptable Venezuelan government. Or any plan he’s put forth to achieve that lofty goal. I expect we’ll get the ‘awesome bigly great better and cheaper than anyone can imagine health plan’ he promised in his first administration before we see a plan for Venezuelans to control their own destiny. What all this has really been about has been taking over a country for their oil.
Trump says U.S. oil companies will ‘revitalize’ Venezuela’s oil industry and production. For those expecting a dip or major decline in gas prices dream on. Due to neglect and mismanagement by successive dictators Venezuela’s oil infrastructure has degraded:
Venezuela’s oil industry is in disrepair after years of neglect and international sanctions, so it could take years and major investments before production can increase dramatically. But some analysts are optimistic that Venezuela could double or triple its current output of about 1.1 million barrels of oil a day to return to historic levels fairly quickly.
“While many are reporting Venezuela’s oil infrastructure was unharmed by U.S. military actions, it has been decaying for many many years and will take time to rebuild,” said Patrick De Haan, who is the lead petroleum analyst at gasoline price tracker GasBuddy.
So there’s some optimism but also some very real and verifiable cause for concern about how quickly Venezuela’s oil production can become what it should be. That friends is where my concerns about environmental and safety regulations comes into play. Does anyone think for one second that with a wink and a nod Trump will give U.S. oil executives a green light to cut corners? To Americans overall news about worker injuries and deaths, oil spill whether at wells or from pipelines “down there” simply won’t have an impact if they see gas prices fifty cents (or more) cheaper than what they are paying now by this fall.
Oil company executives will cream their jeans over the money they will save not having to follow regulations they’d face here or in most places, and IF they are willing to spend enough upfront can bring down gas prices by the time early voting starts. Trump and Congressional Republicans will crow about THAT and history teaches us it’s a powerful issue when people cast their votes.
History also teaches us that the U.S. running a de facto government in another country, including one in which the general population believes the U.S. has let them down too many times to ever be trusted is a recipe for a bloody and expensive occupation. Not that anyone from the Trump family, or the families of those in his administration and that of most GOPers on Capitol Hill would either. It IS likely to take a long-term commitment of U.S. troops on the ground to secure oil extraction sites and crude oil transportation to ports. Plenty of chances for Venezuelan’s to mount an insurgency against U.S. occupation. And unlike Iraq there are areas where there’s plenty of natural growth around the extraction sites. Think a combination of Iraq and Vietnam.
But now we know. It was never about drugs but about oil. Oil that could be extracted cheaper and with far less regulation. That in turn means more profits for oil companies and you can be damned sure Trump will get his cut of those extra profits. Plans for slapdash “repairs”/”upgrades” to Venezuela’s oil infrastructure are ready to go. Trump has spent months building up U.S. military capability down there and the only question for oil executives is whether and for how long he’ll keep his promise to use U.S. troops to protect their investment.
With Fox leading the news coverage and both ABC and CBS (and CNN too?) compromised how much coverage will casualties get from major news outlets? If oil executives think it won’t be enough to make Trump go TACO we could be in for a long and bloody insurgency. Also, as I alluded to earlier at least initially Trump is getting pushback from those who might lead Venezuela. They seem to have their own ideas on what’s best for that country in the wake of having an unpopular dictator deposed.
Like Iraq they will initially be joyful and thank us. THEN they will tell us to get the hell out of their country! Like Bush 43 Trump and his team think they know the people of a country they know almost nothing about. Add in that there are complicated legal issues regarding who “owns” Venezuela’s oil (former dictator Hugo Chavez nationalized the industry and kicked foreigners out) or at least the extraction rights and this could be quite the mess. A ‘political oil spill’ on the scale of the Exxon Valdez. I urge you to read the linked article which in only a couple of minutes explains the issue in clear, straightforward terms.
Friends, I know everyone begs you for money. I promise, among all those asking for spare change, we are the smallest and the hardest working. We’re a group of old, disabled people, except for one writer in his mid-50s. The rest of us are in our sixties and seventies, and this is a labor of love. All we’re asking for is the chance to keep telling the truth about Trump and help ensure democracy survives. If you can help, please do. Thank you. Ursula
The last Gulf War, (to get ‘those weapons of mass destruction’) cost The USA taxpayer THREE TRILLION DOLLARS.
To actually GIVE AWAY THAT MUCH MONEY AT ONE DOLLAR PER SECOND WOULD TAKE ONE HUNDRED THOUSAND YEARS. Or longer than human civilization has currently lasted.
But with Dimwit Donny The Corrupt in charge, I can safely predict this little venture will cost comfortably more.
All while ‘we can’t afford’ universal healthcare like the other 34 out of 35 developed economies can