The laws of Political Physics too often cease to apply with Trump. It’s confounding, and disastrous for our country and the free world. However it’s a reality and rather than deny it we have to buckle down and deal with it. His boasts to the contrary, Trump eked out a win last fall. Not by much (1.5% over Harris) and not even 50% of the overall vote but it was enough. There were lots of disgruntled Americans out there casting votes. Except in the House, with so many safely gerrymandered districts that’s usually bad news for the Party in power. Add in the fact voters aren’t as fully informed as once was the case and the bloc of so-called ‘Low Information Voters’ is crucial to GOTV efforts. Normally this is a group Democrats have had good success with, but Trump flipped the script last fall. However the unexpected surge of support from this group might have been a one-time thing.
An article from Intelligencer describes what’s important about the bloc of voters I want to talk about fall into the group of Americans who feel ‘marginalized.’ They tend to be younger, or poor. I can understand why as the article states they feel disengaged and will address that later. What matters is that these (and other groups) feel it doesn’t much matter if they vote, BUT the article uses the phrase “disinclined to vote without direct encouragement.” This group has tended to lean left and vote for Democrats. It makes sense when you think about it because on major issue after major issue Americans actually support the Democratic Party’s positions more than the GOPs. A good GOTV program can motivate these people at the right time and prior to last November it often made a difference.
However once again Trump caused political gravity to cease to exist for a while. These voters went towards him which caught a lot of people off-guard. Hopefully Democratic strategists are at work on refining outreach to keep ‘gravity’ functioning normally when we most need it to. Low information voters broke for Trump. Whatever messaging the broad campaign put forth, or those on the ground in a strong GOTV effort were saying to them didn’t break through. That’s the subject of many articles. It’s also something Democratic strategists will I’m sure be working on. At least they damned well better be. The good news is that gravity has returned. You’ve seen those town halls where even life long GOP voters are giving their elected representatives hell. Buyer’s remorse seems to be emerging and that includes these low information voters we lost last November. As the linked article states Trump’s popularity with marginal (low information) voters is “dropping like a rock”:
New polling shows that the very voters who powered Trump’s return to office are now abandoning him. And if that trend holds, it could upend assumptions about how much campaign messaging and elite discourse really matter. Because it turns out the people who don’t read the Times, don’t watch the Sunday shows, and don’t care about the policy details… still care when the economy sours and their lives get harder.
Public Opinion analyst Elliot Morris gave a pretty blunt assessment. In the past few weeks we’ve been talking about double digit drops in Trump’s approval overall. There have also been equally large drops on specific issues he emphasized to get elected. Even on the economy he’s now underwater. However this past election, like in 2016 was close and margins with various groups matter. Including the group I’m talking about:
Using data from YouGov surveys, Morris finds a “massive 33 percentage point decline in Trump’s net approval rating over the last 3 months with people who consume the least news.” That dwarfs a “14-point drop in Trump approval, from +3 to -11, among people who say they pay attention to the news ‘most of the time.’
There’s plenty more worth reading in the linked article and I encourage you to take a few minutes to do so. It does a good job of detailing how and why the voters at issue shifted to Trump, and the why and how of their ‘bigly’ shift away from him. I think it might be more than them finally noticing Trump PAINTS HIS FACE ORANGE!
However if you’ll indulge me I’d like to address something else. Even with the last two President elections having higher turnout than has been the case most of my life there are a huge number of eligible voters who simply don’t vote. Or unwilling or unable to keep up on the issues. Too many folks out there simply don’t believe their vote matters. Too often if they DO vote they do so based on faulty assumptions or just their gut feelings. Even if they are convinced to vote too often they aren’t really properly informed.
Such was the case this past November. Democrats assumed their GOTV efforts in 2024 would work the way they’d come to expect. And were wrong. I think it speaks to a larger issue of needing to learn how to get the electorate to pay attention, and more importantly be able to determine what’s fact and what’s fiction of the type Fox (and others) inject into political discourse in this country. People are misinformed and usually don’t know it!
There are reasons why voters aren’t as informed as they used to be. For one thing since Reagan came along people have to spend more and more time scrambling just to get by. I’m a senior citizen. When I was growing up it was common for a family to have a house, food on the table and even be able to take a vacation trip sometimes. Also to put kids through college, at least at public universities. All of that on one salary, or if mom worked it was usually only part-time.
Well, as I said due to Reagan’s changes those days are long gone. Even with two full-time incomes families struggle like hell. The cost of housing, whether one owns or rents has gone through the roof. Building a solid savings is next to impossible and putting kids through college, even at public universities means plenty of student debt that will have to be paid off. People simply don’t have the TIME they once did to pay attention to the details of policy being promoted by those seeking elected office. Then there’s the fact the news biz just isn’t what it used to be. When I was growing up and even into adulthood there were the major networks with news anchors and reporters who not only truly knew their stuff, but made a real effort to paint an accurate picture. People knew that and trusted them.
Hell, back then the “Big Three” major networks took pride in their news divisions being ‘loss-leaders’ – they cost more than they brought in (by a lot) but that’s what the entertainment division was for. To make up for those losses and make networks profitable. Then came CNN and 24/7 cable news AND Reagan’s elimination of the Fairness Doctrine. By thirty years ago news was viewed by those who ran news outlets as entertainment. Ratings and revenue became all that mattered and us old farts can, when we think about it see just how much things have changed. The legendary Edward R. Murrow’s warning about ‘lights and wires in a box’ had become a pervasive reality.
Then came the internet and all manner of additional news, which from where I sit was more “news” than real, objective reporting. It became a fire-hose of information hitting people and the water source wasn’t some nice, clean pool. More like a river with factories periodically dumping waste into it. All that information flowing and LESS time, a lot less for most people and it’s easy to see why so many just gave up. They only paid attention for brief periods of time and given how much they struggled with somehow making it from week to week and month to month they mostly tuned out. They became those ‘Low information voters’ who were apathetic about even bothering.
It will take smarter, and more importantly people in positions of influence in the Democratic Party and its consulting class to devise and implement a new strategy to inform voters. I’ve often said the average MAGA doesn’t even know what nuance is, much less be able to comprehend it. However that’s true of more non MAGAs than many who craft campaigns and political strategy realize, or want to admit. I’ve got some ideas of my own of course. However this has already gotten too long so I’ll set that aside for now. The thing is, there’s something going on in the country when even Trump voters are raising hell at other Republicans they also voted for. When THEY are screaming ‘This isn’t what we voted for!’ I see a huge opportunity. Will our leaders and their consultant class be able to take advantage? We will have to wait and see.
In the meantime folks like us can form our own ideas and messaging that we sometimes see work when talking with people in our daily lives. Yes, some and in fact many have drunk too much nasty orange Kool Aid but I do regularly engage with political opposites for actual debate. I even strike a chord sometimes! I’ll be anyone who’s read this can say the same. Perhaps a bit down the road I can revisit this and ask for input/suggestions in comments and fashion it into something we can send to the offices of Democratic leaders and elected officials.
***Zoomers, we are always in need of donations. It’s been an especially rough month and my own health has not been great these past few weeks, which just adds to the frustration. Anything you can spare will be immensely appreciated. And thank you to all who have donated generously already. Ursula***
I’m seeing lots of construction/repairs/upgrades to roads and bridges that must be part of Biden’s infastructure project that have finally reached the stage of visibility. I just wish there were signs saying “Biden Made This Possible” posted at each site. Maybe some protesters could spend some there or local news teams could broadcast interviews to inform people. People could post photos online also. Otherwise tRump will get the credit.
I think some folks do know… but part of their willfully ignorant and arrogant operating ethos.
He does take the credit and will continue to do so. What really angers me is various GOP Congress Critters and other GOP local officials showing up at groundbreaking ceremonies and taking credit for legislation they literally voted against! Worse, Democrats present don’t forcefully call them out on their hypocrisy. Flat-out say something like “It’s nice to see you now support the legislation that made this possible. Because you fought like HELL to prevent if from being passed. And look out to the crowd and dare them to look up the actual final vote on the bill including who voted yes and who voted NO.
If our politicians and local leaders don’t have the guts to do it then as you suggest it’s past time that local activists show up and in numbers at these ceremonies. Complete with signs and large banners. AND a set of concise talking points for local media/reporters with the details on how the GOPer(s) doing the ‘lookie here at what I’ve brought you’ routine fought what they claim credit for!