They wanted this. The Republicans have a majority in Congress and the White House such that it controls Washington with a grip that connotes President Obama’s first term when the Democrats held the House and 60 Senate seats – toss in a cripplingly conservative Supreme Court and GOP control is near airtight. At least in theory. In practice, the GOP’s razor thin numbers in the House – one to three seats depending on who is counting and when, leaves the Reds again battling among themselves and their inability to control all their congress critters. Were that their only problem. They must now also overcome competing agendas between the GOP Senate and mad-hatter House. And this is even before one looks to incoming Pres.-elect Donald Trump’s demands for the all-important first 100 days. The dynamic and Republicans’ infamous inability to organize themselves, may once again scuttle their plans.
Given that the GOP House caucus has shown that it can’t even unify over the most basic issue – a leader, never mind complex litigation, this dynamic was predictable such that I wrote about it weeks ago. But I limited the analysis to the hapless House and didn’t foresee a fundamental clash between competing sides of the Hill – which is the new thing. Rawstory brings a new report in which John Cornyn – seen by Republicans as a moderate, states, “I am not sure everyone is on the same page.”
And that’s as good a place to start as any. Normally, this sort of dynamic should lead a typical John Cornyn-type to throw out a meaningless “We are making plans to implement the Trump agenda, but with all the opportunities, we’re making sure everyone is on the same page to maximize the impact,” something that skips over problems while conveying an air of certainty. Not this bunch.
Forget “Democrats in disarray” – these are the OG legislative loons with an indefatigable ability to get in their own way Shockingly – they can’t even get together on their usual sin qua non, tax cuts:
The report notes incoming Senate majority leader Sen. John Thune (R-SD) is causing “deep anger among some senior House members” over his effort to “punt on a tax bill until later in 2025.” Those House Republicans, CNN reports, “warn that waiting on the tax issue could mean killing it altogether.”
Anger? Huh. I’ll be damned. You would think that the election’s afterglow would last a bit longer, at least until they actually start working in January. But no. And, to be sure, it actually makes some sense (From their point of view) that if the tax cuts aren’t done front and center, it only gets harder later in the term as hurt feelings, and a need for retribution takes hold. There is a reason that people point to the first 100 days as the most “efficient” period in which to pass an agenda. House members already fear their tax cuts may not be as deep and sweeping as promised:
“I am worried that everyday Americans will face a tax increase if Congress doesn’t act appropriately,” Rep. Jason Smith (R-MO) said. “The president campaigned on it. It’s a priority. They should listen to the 76 million Americans who asked for tax relief.”
Yeah. Do us a favor and go back and poll those 76 million about prioritizing giving the top 1% a tax cut and get back to us. Thanks. Meanwhile, it is far easier to cut taxes when one isn’t particularly invested in paying for programs such as SNAP, education, and healthcare. But the problem with such agnosticism is having to explain the cuts to one’s voters. Of that they seem acutely aware. According to Sen. John Kennedy (R-LA):
“My experience has been trying to convince people to cut it, it’s kind of like going to heaven,” Kennedy said. “Everybody’s ready to go to heaven, but nobody’s willing to take the trip.”
That’s the spirit. One can trust that quote because my experience has been that Kennedy loves to come across as the “aw shucks” relatable dolt while hiding an annoyingly and problematic powerful mind that is too effective for good – literally.
As CNN notes, the historically – and hysterically – chaotic GOP House caucus runs the risk of tossing the whole platter of red paint:
“a preview of the landmines looming over the GOP’s ambitious agenda despite controlling all of Washington,”
So what’s the old saying? Never let the perfect get in the way of the good? Something like that. Seen from a Democratic perspective, this all allows for Republicans’ need for the purely imperfect get in the way of the merely bad. Or something like that.
Regardless, it didn’t take genius insight to predict all this. Yes, yes – Democrats also have moderates to accommodate. But time and time again we saw Nancy Pelosi and now Leader Jeffries take those fights behind closed doors and emerge unified. Despite more than ample practice, time and again the Republicans have trouble coordinating the entirety of the conservative spectrum – from lavender to infrared. Now they also have a Senate wanting to tackle immigration above all else, even prior to tax cuts, and a House adamant that it begins – and thus perhaps ends, with a unified and massive tax cut.
So be it. The dynamic is more like Donald Trump’s first term in 2016 during which the GOP also controlled all three branches but had very narrow majorities in both the House and Senate (Very narrow). Additionally, there was relatively little talk about ending the filibuster as compared to now. Throw in the rubber stamp of the SCOTUS and Republican control is otherwise complete, ‘cept for that gosh darn herd of cats over in the House, as Kennedy might say… While plotting.
So – situation somewhat normal. But Donald Trump is unlikely to have the patience – perhaps tolerance is a better word, for division in troops, never mind branches. Surely, he will eventually control the House with an iron fist. But those unlovable rascals in the Senate stay notoriously independent. There is a reason they didn’t obliterate the ACA before. And they didn’t elect Thune and Cornyn above Rick Scott by accident. This fight between competing priorities may blow up their best laid plans. So be it. Please.
Meanwhile, one can do worse than watch the too-clever ones like John Kennedy or even Lindsey Graham to predict whether a compromise is possible. We will see how it goes. Repubs in disarray remains easy to say and even easier to predict. But they sure don’t need to come together on much to pass a devastating plate of destruction to all that is normal – or working. That, too – must always be kept in mind. Always.
God Bless: I can be reached at [email protected] and on X @JasonMiciak and now on Bluesky.
A party divided cannot stand – but it CAN stagger around for a while, knocking things over, before collapsing in a heap.
And stagger they will. The Gang That Can’t Shoot Straight.