Three Freedom Caucus Members To Wash Out If Predictions Hold

Fate is a fickle filly and right now it looks like she’s got her talons pointed at three of the most outrageous members of the GOP klown car, at the end of their last ride through the halls of congress. I guess they better get George Santos on the phone and see what their options are vis a vis doing Cameo clips or maybe call Newsmax about an anchor position there. Talking Points Memo has pinpointed three races wherein the Freedom Caucus seems doomed. Too bad it’s not more, but we take what we get, right? Cleaning house has to begin somewhere, let’s be grateful that these three seem to be on the ropes. (And it’s not the three depicted in the photo above. God how I would love that. But it is three who are almost as obnoxious and undeserving of the power that they hold.)

The race that has gotten the most attention is Rep. Scott Perry in PA-10. Perry is a very prominent and hardcore Freedom Caucus guy. He was deeply involved in the coup attempt. In terms of both ferality and prominence, he’s as Freedom Caucus as you can get. He was also previously the chair of the group. But even with all those antics, he’s only in an R-5 district — Republican but not by a lopsided degree. He’s being challenged by a longtime local TV anchor named Janelle Stelson, who is herself a former Republican. Notwithstanding Kari Lake’s record, former TV anchors come into races with real assets since lots of people in the district feel they know the person, have some baseline level of trust in them, etc. Stelson has also dramatically out-raised Perry.

Perry has proven resilient in the past. There’s not a huge amount of polling. But the last one from Susquehanna showed Stelson up by eight points, albeit with a tiny 300 LV sample size. A DCCC poll from late summer showed her up by one and an early summer poll from respected Franklin & Marshall showed him up by only one point. The most credible sign the threat is real is that Republicans are now rushing in big money to save him.

That is a sign to take heed of, always. There is no better axiom in politics than “follow the money.” Now this next one is intriguing. Donald Trump was in Miami today and a lot of people were baffled by that. But this provides an explanation. Anna Paulina Luna was with him and she’s an embattled congress member. Hopefully she’s on her way out, too.

Next up is Anna Paulina Luna in Florida’s 13th district. Luna is what you’d technically call a right-wing whackjob influencer. She lost in 2020 but then came back and won the district in 2022 after it was more effectively gerrymandered. Cook now calls it an R+6 district, very similar to Perry’s. She’s punched every Trumpy ticket in her two years in the House. Unlike Perry, who Cook now rates a GOP-leaning tossup, Cook still has Luna’s district as Likely Republican. But the only two polls out, both from St Pete Polls, show Luna in real danger. A late August poll showed Whitney Fox up over Luna by four points. A new poll out from them from a couple days ago showed the race tied. The only other poll is one sponsored by Club for Growth from late August which showed Luna up by five.

It was the internals of this new poll, though, that really caught my attention. The poll has the two exactly tied at 45.9%. So far so good. But then it shows Harris ahead of Trump by three points — 50% to 47%. That seems odd for an R+6 district in Florida. Like really odd. Maybe it’s just a bad poll? But the poll has Ron DeSantis’s approval rating at 52%. And that sounds about right for an R+6 district. It doesn’t sound like their sample is just obviously tilted too far toward Dems. In any case, Luna is a highly polarizing figure in her first term. So she’s clearly got a race on her hands.

Harris ahead of Trump by three points in an R+6 district? In Florida? I am stunned. I have no explanation. But as the commentator points out, the rest of the numbers seem to jibe so maybe this is accurate or maybe it’s an outlier. Again, we are so much on terra incognita. A lot of the art of political prognostication comes from looking at trends and comparing them to past experience. But in the Era of Trump, past experience seems to fly out the window. Store the statistic in the back of your head. On the best case scenario, it could be a sign of Florida going purple. Remember, Florida and Ohio were key states for Obama back in 2008. On the worst side of the ledger, figure this is an outlier poll.

Finally we have Eli Crane in Arizona’s second district, which takes up a big chunk of the northern and eastern part of the state. Crane is also in his first term. Trump won this district twice, the first time by ten points and the second time by eight points. But a new poll commissioned by Inside Elections showed the race tied at 42%.

The same poll shows Trump ahead comfortably — 52% to 43%. So the counter would be that Trump’s strength and the large number of undecideds will pull Crane to victory. That’s certainly the most likely outcome. But there are some additional factors. The same poll shows Ruben Gallego up by five points. So there may be something going on here beside Crane’s low name recognition and this being just an outlier poll.

There’s also the ethnic-racial composition of the district, which is 55% white and over 20% Native American. Critically, Crane’s challenger is Jonathan Nez who was president of the Navajo Nation (2019-2023), much of which is in the 2nd district — along with 11 other Indian reservations. Nez has also substantially outraised Crane, notwithstanding neither candidate getting much attention or funding from their national parties. There are too many variables that I don’t have enough insight into. But the Navajo Nation and Native American dimensions of this race suggest there’s more potentially going on here besides the normal dynamic of a little-known first-term incumbent in a district that favors his party.

One thing that saddens me greatly is that Lauren Boebert’s name is not on the endangered GOPers list. That is such a miscarriage of justice. But then again, who knows? Boebert may go on to further disgrace herself and flame out pyrotechnically at some future point in her *political career.” Boebert has let her freak flag fly and she might well have been defeated by Adam Frisch, but she prudently ran for cover to Ken Buck’s old jurisdiction.

It saddens me to have this woman, who is a pure disgrace, represent a large portion of my home state of Colorado but seemingly she’s bulletproof. For now. Colorado used to be a solidly red state and it has converted to blue in recent elections. If that trend continues, I can only assume that a freak show like Boebert will eventually close out of town.

I marvel that so many Coloradans would prefer to vote against their own interests and send a woman like this back to Congress to do nothing but tweet and perform in angertainment, but according to Newsweek she’s got a 19 out of 20 chances margin of victory predicted. You can’t fight with that.

Now it is possible that there will be an upset. Again, we saw the biggest upset in polls and in politics in 2016 with Trump, so anything is possible. All we know at this point is that getting out the vote is the most important thing.

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