Quite the day for revelatory statistical data. And nothing is better than data that tells you what your spidey sense has been telling you all along. I’m not talking about bias confirmation, I’m talking about hard statistics that underscore a fundamental, instinctive moral sense of what’s right and what’s wrong. We’ve been given to understand that nobody cares if Donald Trump is convicted, but a New York Times piece published today blew that idea clean out of the water.
And this very same piece contains a statistic, two in fact, that are going to give Trump nightmares. I keep monitoring Truth Social and Trump’s X feed to see if he’s gone on the attack against the authors of the piece or on his usual diatribe against the “failing” New York Times, but so far, all quiet on the Florida front. The calm before the hurricane, as it were. In the other piece you read it said, “In a Yahoo News poll from July, 62 percent of respondents said that if Mr. Trump is convicted, he should not serve as president again. A December Reuters/Ipsos national poll produced similar results, with 59 percent of voters overall and 31 percent of Republicans saying that they would not vote for him if he were convicted.” These are decisive numbers. And so.are.these.
New data from our work with the Research Collaborative confirmed the repercussions of a possible conviction on voters. These questions did not ask directly how a conviction would affect people’s votes, but they still supported movement in the same direction. This survey, conducted in August and repeated in September (and then repeated a second time in September by different pollsters), asked how voters felt about prison time in the event that Mr. Trump is convicted. At least two-thirds (including half of Republicans) favored significant prison time for Mr. Trump.
Maybe I should put those two stats in red rather than just bold. Two-thirds, 66% favored SIGNIFICANT prison time — and one half, 50% were Republicans. So they don’t just intend to not vote for Trump, they intend to lock him up and throw away the key! “Significant” prison time. This is from a man whose entire life has been sleeping in his own clubs, where he’s waited on hand and foot, or sleeping in palaces and embassies abroad. Trumpty won’t last in prison one day and I think we all know that. Moreover, so does he.
We first saw this connection emerge in our testing about the Jan. 6 hearings; criminality moves voters significantly against Mr. Trump and MAGA Republicans.
But voters also understand that crime must be proved. They recognize that in our legal system there is a difference between allegations and proof and between an individual who is merely accused and one who is found guilty by a jury of his peers. Because so many Americans are familiar with and have served in the jury system, it still holds sway as a system with integrity.
Moreover, recent electoral history suggests that merely having Mr. Trump on trial will alter how voters see the importance of voting in the first place. In the wake of the Jan. 6 committee hearings, the 2022 midterms saw turnout at record levels in states where at least one high-profile MAGA Republican was running.
That is true. The 2018 midterm turnout was high, 2020 was high, 2022 was high and the way things are going, 2024 should be through the roof. And that’s a good thing. Traditionally, good voter turnout favors the Democrats and we need that to take place now more than ever.
The story here is that it’s not all carved in stone yet. We’re going into the Iowa primary in a few short weeks and then into New Hampshire and South Carolina — for the ritualistic effect of it all, I guess. Unless something completely amazing happens — and it could — Trump will be the GOP nominee.
But, bear in mind another date: January 9, before the January 15 Iowa primary. January 9 is when the appellate court is hearing Trump’s presidential immunity issue and they will unquestionably have a ruling out within a few days, i.e. right before the Iowa caucus. Could that influence the outcome of the caucus?
Possibly. DeSantis has been polling better in Iowa than in other places. That’s the basket he’s put all his eggs in, as well you know. Maybe he will win Iowa, ala Ted Cruz. It would be amusing if he did, and if the appellate court ruling was one reason why, because that would juice his fantasy of being the nominee. That will make the opera which is Ron DeSantis last a bit longer. And be that much more entertaining, it goes without saying.
There are too many variables for anybody to guess what’s going to happen right now, today. But keep your eye on the calendar. Because there are so many things that are moving fast and all of these variables are interconnected. They all can sway the outcome.
There’s only one thing that is becoming more and more evident: If these statistics are anywhere near true, then all roads lead to defeat for Donald Trump if he has even one conviction. And he’s got three more trials, all moving fast. Do the math. Plus, closing arguments in the Trump Organization fraud trial are scheduled for January 11 and then Judge Engoron will decide the verdict. That could be explosive, determinative. You see what I’m saying? The Trump story is moving faster than a hummingbird’s wings on meth.
20-24
Just beautiful, wham bang shot at Trump, hence the need for more, (LOCK HIM UP) shout outs … He has earned every damn year for that punishment …
When the Judges get done with their decisions, the question will only be if the state’s time runs sequentially or not, like 10-to-15 in one state and 10 in another, before he can settle into his permanent housing in Federal Prison … where the only way out will be in a large bag with zippers on a gurney …
He’s already been convicted of rape and multiple times for fraud!!!! What the phuck is wrong with these reptilian miscreants? The word for ‘moron’ should be replaced with ‘american’ in the dictionary.
Totally agreed but they’ve been propagandized and brainwashed by fu@kz for how many decades now? They honestly believe the BS they’re being fed and the LOVE them some retribution. The Murdochs have MUCH to account for and should literally be held accountable for the destruction of the United States.
The judge in the defamation case –a civil case– found by the preponderance of the evidence that Trump.was guilty. That standard basically said it was more likely than not that he did it. In most states, that means 51% and the decision usually doesn’t have to be unanimous. In a criminal.case it must be beyond a,reasonable doubt, and the jury decision must be unanimous. So,51% in a civil case, but 99%in a criminal.case and the decision must be unanimous. Federal.courts require the jury be unanimous in both civil.and criminal.cases.
Those are major differences.