Trump’s Achilles Heel Shows Up Glaringly In Polls But Nobody Has Spotted It Until Now

You hear all the time that with each indictment Donald Trump’s polls have actually gone up. He’s even felt cocky enough to joke about it, “Maybe I should get indicted a fifth time? Then I’ll win for sure.” Maybe you should and maybe you will, Donald. Remember the story regarding the binder of missing Russian documents regarding election interference from ten days ago? That could could end up being a fifth indictment.

Indictments are no joking matter and neither are convictions. Trump believes he has a rock solid voting base, and yes, in MAGA he does. But not everybody is hard core MAGA. There are potential Trump voters who will be swayed by a criminal conviction, we are now told. And it’s possible even without a conviction that potential Trump voters can be swayed, we also are now told. One thing we saw when the Trump Organization fraud trial was going on was that a lot of information got introduced into the record and many of his expert witnesses looked bad. So this process of swaying some potential Trump voters may have already begun. Plus, take a look at this exchange. I must say that at the time this surprised me.

We don't have Trump Derangement Syndrome. You have Trump Twain Syndrome, a state of mind where you believe a criminal con artist to be a great man and a leader. As Mark Twain said, "It's easier to con people than to convince them that they've been conned." I hope you wake up.

— Ursula Faw (@ursulafaw56) December 25, 2023

I commend the fact that when he's convicted that you will take it seriously. That's encouraging. And no, I won't "support Trump until then." I won't support him one nanosecond because he's a huckster con artist. He got where he got because of TV, period.

— Ursula Faw (@ursulafaw56) December 25, 2023

A Trump supporter said here, in black and white, that if Trump “was found guilty of anything, I will drop the support.” I’m glad that I have one of them on record saying this, because here’s the New York Times, saying that this is really happening.

The negative impact of conviction has emerged in polling as a consistent through line over the past six months nationally and in key states. We are not aware of a poll that offers evidence to the contrary. The swing in this data away from Mr. Trump varies — but in a close election, as 2024 promises to be, any movement can be decisive.

To be clear, we should always be cautious of polls this early in the race posing hypothetical questions, about conviction or anything else. Voters can know only what they think they will think about something that has yet to happen.

Yet we have seen the effect in several national surveys, like a recent Wall Street Journal poll. In a hypothetical matchup between Mr. Trump and Mr. Biden, Mr. Trump leads by four percentage points. But if Mr. Trump is convicted, there is a five-point swing, putting Mr. Biden ahead, 47 percent to 46 percent.

In another new poll by Yahoo News and YouGov, the swing is seven points. In a December New York Times/Siena College poll, almost a third of Republican primary voters believe that Mr. Trump shouldn’t be the party’s nominee if he is convicted even after winning the primary.

The damage to Mr. Trump is even more pronounced when we look at an important subgroup: swing-state voters. In recent CNN polls from Michigan and Georgia, Mr. Trump holds solid leads. The polls don’t report head-to-head numbers if Mr. Trump is convicted, but if he is, 46 percent of voters in Michigan and 47 percent in Georgia agree that he should be disqualified from the presidency.

It makes sense that the effect is likely greater in swing states: Those are often places where a greater number of conflicted — and therefore persuadable — voters reside. An October Times/Siena poll shows that voters in the battleground states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada and Pennsylvania favored Mr. Trump, with Mr. Biden narrowly winning Wisconsin. But if Mr. Trump is convicted and sentenced, Mr. Biden would win each of these states, according to the poll. In fact, the poll found the race in these six states would seismically shift in the aggregate: a 14-point swing, with Mr. Biden winning by 10 rather than losing by four percentage points.

Wow. Katie, bar the door. Let’s read this one again, “if Trump is convicted and sentenced… the race in these six states would seismically shift in the aggregate: a 14-point swing, with Mr. Biden WINNING BY 10, rather than losing by four.” That is something.

And it makes complete sense. I daresay that even the hard core MAGAs might be motivated somewhat, because as delusional as they are, even they recognize the importance of somebody actually getting convicted in a court of law. And yes, Trump is gaslighting them that it’s all a hit job, a plot, a conspiracy by Biden because he’s scared, the work of the Deep State, bla bla, but an actual conviction might turn on the cold water faucet and wake MAGA up ever so slightly.

Right now what’s going on is political theater to these people. But an actual conviction would jar that perception very quickly — just as what we saw in the Manhattan trial. People were able to get the details and see Trump function in the courtroom. Functioning, in his case, meant staging a “Perry Mason moment” and then racing from the room when his dramatic ploy failed.

And it gets better — or worse for Trump, which is better for America.

The same poll also provides insights into the effect a Trump conviction would have on independent and young voters, which are both pivotal demographics. Independents now go for Mr. Trump, 45 percent to 44 percent. However, if he is convicted, 53 percent of them choose Mr. Biden and only 32 percent Mr. Trump.

The movement for voters ages 18 to 29 was even greater. Mr. Biden holds a slight edge, 47 percent to 46 percent, in the poll. But after a potential conviction, Mr. Biden holds a commanding lead, 63 percent to 31 percent.

Being a criminal is important to voters. That’s good to know. That makes me feel like I’m not completely losing my mind every time I see one of these polls that is so anti-Biden and for no other reason than the fact that the man is no longer a spring chicken. Biden’s actual performance in the job has been stellar, by any normal yardstick, but because he’s not young and a rock star, the actual facts of what he has done for this nation seem to be eclipsed. Trump, on the other hand, had an utterly miserably performance in the White House, yet polls would have us believe that America wants to give it a second go.

In any event, here’s the bottom line: it is entirely possible that Trump will have at least one criminal conviction before Election Day. On January 9 the Court of Appeals is hearing the presidential immunity issue and it’s anticipated that a swift ruling will take place. And there are the three other criminal cases. Trump a l’orange may become the new dish in 2024, paired with a chilled glass of schadenfreude. And of course a side of revenge, served cold.