You all know that as a military strategy nut, I have been closely following the war in Ukraine, and have written repeatedly about it. And so I do again tonight. But I write to tell you that we have just entered a new, very dangerous escalation in this conflict.
Yesterday, in response to Ukrainian President Zalinski’s proclamation that the final stage of the war to defeat Russia was entering into its final phase, Vlad the Imp responded by launching a salvo of more than 90 missiles and drones all across Ukraine, targeting civilian and infrastructure electrical and water targets in Ukraine. And in doing so, it appears that 2 of the Russian missiles overshot Ukraine, and hit a grain processing plant i neighboring Poland, a NATO ally.
I cannot emphasize how critical this is. The Poles are playing it perfectly, downplaying a Russian connection, and saying that the incident was under investigation. In a public statement from the G20 summit in Bali, President Biden struck an equally measured tone, advising caution while the investigation plays out. But in reality, there is little doubt as to what happened.
The Russians are bone stupid. In his fury over his allegedly vaunted ability to take Ukraine, Putin launched endless barrages of millilies against civilian Ukrainian targets. Which theire dumb asses couldn’t replace with current NATO and global sanctions. So now they’re down to firing dumb missiles, with little guidance control, and now 2 of them have appear to have strayed from their targets.
This is truly a seminal moment. From day one, both President Biden, as well as the rest of NATO have warned Putin that any transgression into a NATO country would be considered a violation of the NATO treaty. And now the brain dead Russians have gone ahead and killed 2 Polish citizens, on Polish soil. The calculations have justed shifted, and into a very dangerous place.
NATO has no choice, it must respond to this if it turns out to be true. And it can’t be something as simple as naming 4-5 Putin aligned oligarchs and slapping them with economic sanctions. For the first time in this conflict, actual NAYO civilians are dead at the hands of Russia, that changes the paradigm.
There are several options. For one, the US could start supplying the Ukrainians with our advanced Abram’s tanks for their defense. They could also supply Ukraine with longer range howitzer cannons to fuel their offensives against the Russians. They could supply the Ukrainians with more advanced surface to air batteries to defend themselves from the Russian missiles.
But it could get more militant. NATO could decide to hold a joint US/NATO air strike against Russian positions already in Ukraine in retaliation for Russia’s misguided missiles. And Ukrainian President Zelensky has already been throwing around 10 gallon hints about striking into Crimea as part of the liberation of the south. The US and NATO could supply him with the armaments and tacit support to let him do that.
I cannot overemphasize how critical this is. Putin has already lost, his ground forces are already retreating on all fronts. Given time Ukraine will drive them all out. But Russia’s missile strike into Poland forced NAYO to escalate the response.
And that response may well decide whether or not the Russia invasion of Ukraine sadly turns into a larger, more generalized war between Russia and NATO. And to be perfectly honest, I have no prediction as to what happens from here. We’re in uncharted territory.
This situation sucks, but the fact it happened while the G-20 was meeting (a gathering which Pootie Tang skipped!) gave world leaders a chance to talk things over. And NATO has multiple members at that gathering which is important too. Bad as it is that civilians a few miles into Poland were killed by errant missiles I think keeping a cool head and trying to dial down the temperature is the correct approach. Instead the focus should be where world leaders are already trying to place it which is the WAR CRIME of indiscriminate, widespread attacks against civilian targets.
As for weapons, unless a lot of behind the scenes training on some of the stuff you cite has been taking place Abrams tanks and certain long range precision guided missile systems are a non-starter. And by training I’m not just talking about the hardware and the operators but those who have to maintain that stuff in the field. Now in brutal winter conditions!
Pootie Tang has made some boneheaded moves, but intentionally hitting people/places in Poland is a can of whu-ass he knows better than to open. HE might think he can prevail in world opinion if NATO invokes Article 5 but not even China would object at this point. But I think he does know that in a couple of weeks (if that long) if Article 5 is invoked he and Russia are so fucked for multiple generations he will wind up being the most hated person in Russia’s history and that’s saying something! I would dearly love to see NATO crews deploying from England flying A-10 Warthogs over Russian positions. One attack, if not word those planes are being deployed to Ukraine will have any Russian officer who knows any shit at all shitting their pants. And then hightailing it back into Russia at least a couple hundred kilometers from the border and any Russian supply/staging area. And away from any rail or road line of communication too!
Mass surrenders would quickly ensue. Pootie Tang knows this. I would be surprised if Russia make a show out of summarily executing a few poor solidiers for their “lack of performance” in allowing a missile to hit outside of Ukraine.
I have almost no military knowledge so maybe I will sound stupid. this is an expected escalation because the Russians are running out of guided munitions. a no fly zone for Ukraine was considered invasive earlier in the conflict, but how about using NATO anti rockets,launched from Poland to protect NATO countries and now civilians into Ukraine air space. still defensive. deescalate any direct confrontation
Not stupid at all, Old. Putin pissed away his precision missiles on civilian targets, as you say, which leaves less accurate dumb missiles. Chances of missing the target go way up when you combine with the proven incompetence of Russian military. Escalating is the last thing anyone here wants to do, Putin included, because that means it REALLY gets ugly after.
It now seems that the Polish army has identified the remains as a Ukrainian AA missile so the putain is sort of off the hook on that.
However, it does sort of beg the issue as to why it was fired unless it was trying to intercept an incoming attack very close to the border.
It appears that it didn’t explode; it was a rocket failure.
Massive coverup by NATO to downplay this to prevent WWIII. It was obviously a Russian Missile that went astray. The fact that the Ukrainians have been excluded from the investigation proves that it’s a cover-up. Of course originally Putin had his sights on attacking Poland after he conquered Ukraine, but at this point he’s figuring out how to withdraw without accepting or making it look like defeat.
By now. 1600 hrs east coast Australian time. It was apparently two Ukrainian anti missile “missiles”!!!!!