The Other Giant Election Indicator In Plain Sight That Nobody Speaks Of

You keep hearing phrases like “coin toss” and “dead heat” (48% to 48% if you’re interested) to describe the status of the 2024 presidential election. This despite the fact that Kamala Harris and Tim Walz are playing to enthusiastic crowds, packed to the rafters,  while Donald Trump and J.D. Vance are in smaller venues, with people leaving early. How can that be? It is reminiscent of that famous line from George Orwell’s 1984, “The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command.” Switch out the word “media” for “party.” We are being told, in essence, that whatever enthusiasm we see for a great Democratic pair, bringing a new generation and a new vision into the political arena is of no account, because people prefer the vulgarian, who is visibly decompensating before our very eyes with each and every rally that he goes to.

Just this weekend we heard Trump call Kamala Harris “A shit vice president,” and tell Jill Biden, “Get your fat husband off the couch, slap him around.” Trump can’t control himself anymore. Most dementia patients can’t. Yet we are told that this is of no account. And the media doesn’t even report Trump’s mental deterioration. Last night Trump plunged into a sub-basement a bit too bizarre for even him, when he spoke of the size of Arnold Palmer’s “wedding tackle” as Rick Wilson put it. What did the New York Times say? Oh, they said Trump was “energetic.” Sanewash and softsoap, that’s how Trump’s lunacy is dealt with. We literally have a mental patient (not to mention convicted felon) running for our nation’s highest office and his egregious gaffes go unrecorded in the paper of record for this country.

The set up is clear for an explosion. All the signs are there. First of all, the presidential race is ostensibly neck and neck, but as I said here yesterday, the true indicator to watch is early and mail-in voting. If we have a high turnout, that’s it for Trump. And so far that’s the indication. Another indication is the seven swing states. Many people, James Carville included, do not see this as a one-state debacle, like we had in 2000, when less than 600 votes in Florida determined the election.

Here’s what is really going on, if you ignore the polls altogether:

1. The Democrats are out-fundraising the Republicans by a substantial margin. Follow The Money is an adage from way back, like “it’s the economy, stupid.” Pay heed to it.
2. Speaking of the economy, it’s blasting.
3. All Trump/Vance have to offer is apocalyptic gloom and doom. That doesn’t sell. Not up against a booming economy and a hopeful vision for the future.
4. Look to 2012. Obama was vastly underestimated in the polls and he won handily, 332 votes to Romney’s 206.
5. Trump has lost every election since 2018. It is unlikely that as he gets crazier and his act gets staler, that that trend is going to reverse.

Now one last thing on the seven swing states and this is the “giant indicator” of which I speak. James Carville and a number of other pundits have gone on record that they don’t see a 4-3 split. They see it as a 5-2 or maybe 6-1. So where does that leave Trump? Right now all seven swing states are within the statistical margin of error. Trump is “leading” in two of them, in Georgia by .9 to 1.8% and in Arizona by 1.1 to 1.7%. In four other swing states, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Nevada, Harris is leading. And in North Carolina, it’s the biggest tossup, with Trump leading by .5. But, this is important: that North Carolina lead has tightened since the Mark Robinson debacle.

So, following Carville’s logic, if a 4-3 split is not likely, then Trump realistically can take two swing states, max, because Harris is leading in the other four. So let’s say, just for the sake of argument, he takes Georgia and Arizona. And I would by no means count on that, seeing as how he lost both of those states four years ago. But since he has the largest leads there, let’s just go with that math. Georgia has 16 electoral votes, Arizona has 11. So that’s 27 electoral votes and he loses all the other swing states, which total 66 votes.

And maybe that’s how it goes. Biden won both Georgia and Arizona, states which had not previously been won since 1992 or 1996, so maybe they will go back into the Republican column. But how Trump wins without Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Michigan, Wisconsin, or Nevada, I do not see. I think that losing Pennsylvania and North Carolina will be his death knell right there on election night, before we even get to the states out west.

And Trump knows it. His events calendar for this week is heavily Pennsylvania and North Carolina. And he gets back to Georgia and also back to Nevada. But all indications are that Trump is clearly worried about North Carolina and Pennsylvania.

I think Pennsylvania is gone to Trump and that alone is problematic. I base my assumption on the fact that when Harris entered the race, she not only wiped out a 4-point advantage that Trump had there, she also began to gain an advantage of her own. So I don’t think Trump can win in Pennsylvania. Unless talking about the size of Arnold Palmer’s dick will get him back the state, who knows? He might still win in North Carolina, because it’s so solidly red there, but the fact that he dumped Mark Robinson cold and Robinson has taken to campaigning with cardboard cutouts of Trump or sometimes Trump and Melania says everything you need to know about the solidity of a win in the Tar Heel state.

That’s my reading of the tea leaves for this hour. I go in search of more.

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