For the next 16 days expect to hear non stop white noise. Political news is like static on a television set after the broadcast signal is shut off. But if you keep reading enough articles there are repetitive themes that keep cropping up which will help you find out what you need to know. The most repetitive theme is that the polls indicate the 2024 presidential election is a nail biting race. This sets most of us to ripping our hair out. But bear in mind, you know how far off the polls can be, at least if you remember 2016, 2018, 2020 and 2022, with particular emphasis on 2016 and 2022. So forget about the polls as an indicator one way or the other.
What does that leave you? A lot. An awful lot. Here’s the basic lay of the land:
- Since Kamala Harris entered the race, the momentum has been all hers.
- Trump lost momentum when Joe Biden stepped down and he has never regained that momentum. Not even close.
- Trump’s biggest failure was that he did not adjust his game plan. He had one plan for Biden, which was to hammer on Biden’s age, alleged infirmity, dementia, etc. He never changed the plan to accommodate his new, younger, female, former prosecutor opponent and that’s why he has flailed so badly.
Now, bearing all that in mind, here’s what Trump’s plan was and here’s why it’s flopping. And yes, I’m going to tell you the one statistic. Very simply, Trump needs an unpopular candidate, like Hillary was, or a candidate who aged in the job, as Joe did, and he doesn’t have that right now to attack. He also — and this is key — does not have the advantage of being the untried product. Back in 2016, Trump was the Shell Answer Man, he knew what to do and only he could do it. We saw what he did for four years in office. We saw it all too well.
So everything mentioned here is a factor. But there is one factor which isn’t being mentioned and it’s the very one that will hang Trump: voter turnout. 2016 was a low turnout election with two “flawed” candidates, as it was put at the time. 2020 was a higher turnout election and so far, 2024 is looking to be high turnout as well. Georgia, Michigan, and Pennsylvania smashed voting records when early and mail-in voting started.
That is the Rosetta Stone of this election, I believe. Trump must have a low voter turnout to win and he doesn’t have it. And on top of that, Trump’s Get Out The Vote effort is flailing. He’s got no ground game, he’s got no volunteers, he’s outsourced his Get Out The Vote effort (I guess he didn’t ask Ron DeSantis how that went, when DeSantis tried it) and the Democrats are out-fundraising the Republicans by an incredible margin.
So all of these factors should be taken into account but none so much as the voter turnout. Because that is what is going to determine this race. And the pollsters can tap dance about how Kamala’s numbers need to come up with male voters, bla bla, but it’s all empty rhetoric if there’s terrific early voting, mail-in voting and in person voting at the polls on Election Day.
Keep your eyes on early and mail-in voting stats. That will give you an overall concept of how the turnout will be this election. And if it’s a high turnout election, look for Trump to sink like an anvil.
“Political news is like static on a television set after the broadcast signal is shut off.”
Just a note, Ursula, but that analogy doesn’t really work any longer. Most TV stations run non-stop. Network affiliates fill up that old midnight-to-six block with some sort of network-originating programming (early morning news shows or reruns of late-night chat shows or both) while independent stations and cable networks just fill up the time with infomercials. (In fact, I just scrolled through my cable guide and the only networks that are listing any “off-the-air” information are a couple of sports-exclusive channels that only air during certain hours. One, NFL RedZone, is currently off-air but it’s just showing the channel logo and playing background music–no static.)
I think the last time I saw that kind of static on a TV set was when I had a set that hooked up to the cable box and had to be set to a specific channel to work and if it wasn’t on that set, then you got static.
I get the overall point, though.
White noise/static or wipipo noise? lol
A couple of other points:
1. You might want to adjust this point:
“Since Kamala Harris left the race, the momentum has been all hers.”
I think you left something out from your original draft (maybe, you meant to write “Since Joe Biden left the race, and Kamala Harris entered” or you meant “entered” instead of “left”–changing a thought process in the middle of writing happens to all of us).
2. “he’s outsourced his Get Out The Vote effort (I guess he didn’t ask Ron DeSantis how that went, when DeSantis tried it)”
Um, that would imply that Dim Donald asks for or takes advice from “losers” or anyone else, for that matter (we all saw how his lawyers fared during Donald’s trials).
I thought I read that muskrat was using the money he is “giving” to orange menace to run the get out the vote effort. I might be wrong. But muskrat, like the orange menace, cannot successfully run anything so that will (hopefully) be a totally failure.
I heard the same thing, Carol. I also agree that the muskrat has zero management skills and even worse people skills.
When I was very young I remember getting up even before the shows started so that I could be awake when the cartoons started. We waited patiently not to wake the adults. So we could watch cartoons all saturday morning and then eat pancakes or sugar cereal. Scooby doo.
I wonder about poles of places like Texas, there have been big demographic shifts in a fast growing state. Urban voters are likely to overcome rural voters this election. cruz knows he is in trouble and no one is supporting his campain. Allred had deep pockets. I am voting first day with my family.
Yep I’ve already sent in my early ballot here in AZ. I’m following my dad’s “straight Democrat ticket” again. Also I follow his “I’m a Union Man all the way” as a Union Woman all the way! Vote Blue!
Every pic I see of trump has him looking like a braying ass. Could it be he always looks like a braying ass? Makes sense.
I have also sent in my Early Mail-in Ballot, in Pahrump, Nv. Every Vote counts, the more our Dem’s get, the better! Carry on…..