The Next Potential US-NATO-Ukraine Stumbling Block

So, from what I hear on the news, Ukraine and Russia are still holding Turkish brokered peace talks, and that they’re making real progress. That’s good, I like a nice bedtime story. Unfortunately, I don’t buy it. For a couple of reasons.

For starters, Putin’s cease fire demands are nothing short of ridiculous. He wants Ukraine to recognize Crimea as a part of Russia. Why? Since 2014, Ukraine has done nothing to try to retake Crimea, it’s Crimean separatists that keep the border war going, hoping to gobble up more land. It’s Putin who needs to put his howler monkeys back in their cages, not Zelensky.

Second, Putin wants Ukraine to recognize the independence and sovereignty of the two breakaway republics that ostensibly started this whole mess. Again, why? Ukraine is kicking Putin’s candy ass army everywhere in Ukraine. One intelligence analysis shows that Putin’s ragamuffin army is approaching 1000 casualties a day in their stalled offensive. At that rate, there won’t be any Russian soldiers left in Ukraine in 6 months. Why do you reward a wayward child for bad behavior?

But the third one is almost Trumpian stupid. Putin wants Ukraine to dismantle their military, in return for assurances of territorial sovereignty. What the ever loving fuck?! The only reason Putin isn’t in Kyiv right now is because Ukraine has a fully trained, equipped, and armed army. If Putin was stupid enough to go in against a fully armed Ukraine, what would stop him from simply taking over a neutered Ukraine. These are not serious negotiations.

Look, I don’t blame Zelensky for trying. I think he’s fully aware that these are not serious negotiations, but he’s hoping to at least make enough progress to get a cease-fire called, which would allow the desperately needed medical supplies, doctors, and humanitarian supplies to make survival possible for his people. He’s playing a stalling game.

But here’s the real reason why there’s potentially major trouble in Paradise for the US-NATO-Ukraine partnership. As it stands right now, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov is negotiating with Ukrainian ministers on the Belarus border, arbitrated by the Turkish government, which is trying to broker the deal. Now, Lavrov can make any kind of moo-moo peace noises he wants to, but in the end, it all comes down to the signature of one man, Vladimir Putin. These negotiations are between Russian and Ukraine, and that’s a real problem.

Because I can goddamn well guarantee you that if some point, if the negotiations show progress, Vlad the Imp is going to chime in and demand that the immediate cessation o0f US-UK-EU-NATO sanctions be a part of the peace agreement. And that’s a complete non starter, since they aren’t Zelinsky’s to barter away! They belong to the countries who imposed them.

You can’t say I didn’t warn y’all. A week ago, every Democratic House member, Senator, administration official, and White House spokesperson kept calling this Putin’s War, and assured the Russian people that these sanctions could disappear in a day if Putin just pulled out of Ukraine. And then Biden called Putin a war criminal. And I immediately wrote that this changed everything, since the US doesn’t deal with war criminals, and neither do most other countries, other than Russia. And since that day, you haven’t heard a single administration official, spokesman, or Democratic MOC make the offer that the sanctions could go away tomorrow if Putin just pulls out.

If this goes the way I think it might, we are about to see a conflict in totally divergent national and international interests directly involved in the war. Putin wants any kind of a deal that he can sell as a win to his own pissed off population. Zelensky is motivated by the survival of his people and nation, and the ability to rebuild back into a prosperous western style democracy again once this is over.

But the US and NATO are taking a wider geopolitical view. Personally, I think that the US and NATO are hoping that if they funnel enough high quality military shit into Ukraine, Ukraine, facing an already dis-spirited and basically stalled Russian army can. With a couple of well timed counter offensives, drive Russia out completely. Which would be a death knell for Putin.

But the US and NATO are also looking at it with a wider lens, they’re looking at the map of Europe, and their alliance. If Zelensky wants to sign an agreement with Russia to end the war fine. But it can’t be with a disbanded Ukrainian military. After all, Ukraine is the Putin Ahab’s Moby Dick. He is obsessed, he has to have it. And if he comes a-calling in another couple of years, the US and NATO are going to need a functional Ukraine army to supply again. And these guys have earned their glory.

But there’s a better reason for the US, the EU, and NAYO to hang tough here. Because hanging tough works against dictators. Trump was a fucking moron. Remember when he went running over to hold a couple of footsie playing summits with North Korea’s Kim Jong Un? Every talking head and pundit screamed to the heavens that Trump was legitimizing Kim. Remember? And what ended up happening? Not a fucking thing! Merkel didn’t run over to Pyongyang, neither did Macron or Johnson, or any other major world leader. And now Trump is toast, and North Korea is every bit as isolated as it was. Remember one thing. A Putin under crushing sanctions can’t rebuild his shattered military. His economy is already in shambles.

We’ll see how this goes. But two things I know for sure. Putin can’t negotiate an exit from Ukraine that doesn’t include the lifting of the sanctions, and the world can’t lift those sanctions as long as Putin is in power. It will ultimately be up to the Russian people to figure this out.