I honestly don’t know if things have gotten better or worse. But let’s start with the basics. The mini-demolition (3 cars/candidates) contest of House Speaker next week is down to two cars/candidates playing a game of chicken. It will if nothing else be interesting to see how things play out, especially with Trump having injected his fat orange butt into the whole thing by backing Jordan. But for now, Oklahoma Rep. Kevin Hern has dropped out of the race as The Daily Caller notes. In the name of UNITY. Say what? In the current House Republican caucus? My reaction on reading that was to wonder what planet this dude is living on! Still, he claims to have spent fifty plus hours” talking with every other GOPer in the House and became convinced unity is the watchword. Or something. He sent out a “Dear Colleague” letter explaining his decision not to run and for good measure a tweet:
“I’ve been on the phone 50+ hours with Republican members and what’s clear is we all want UNITY. I believe a three-man race for Speaker will create even more division and make it harder to elect a Speaker,” Hern tweeted.
House Republicans will wind up picking a Speaker but with the Free-Dumb Caucus and eight members in particular in their midst one thing they will NOT be is united. Or strong. Especially if Trump manages to push Jordan to the magic number of 218 votes in which case it’s unlikely they will change the rule that allows a single Representative to file a motion to vacate the chair. The Gaetz gang won’t stand by and let that happen as a condition for going with Jordan no matter what Trump wants. And Democrats will, as they did with the McCarthy vote actually be united and tell their counterparts on the other side to work it out for themselves. Scalise would probably hold firm on revising that rule which would present an interesting choice for Democrats. Do some cross over, or enough vote “present” to reduce the magic number for Scalise?
Look, Steve Scalise who has billed himself as David Duke without the baggage is as hard core conservative as it gets. He’s sure as hell no bargain as Speaker. However I believe he would survive a primary challenge from the right in his District for standing up to Trump’s boy Jordan. And I also think there’s a chance Scalise is savvy enough to know how devastating it would be to Republican’s chances of retaining the House next year if he leads them over the edge into a shutdown headed into the holidays. Whatever negotiations might take place will be ugly to be sure but if odds aren’t good there’s a chance Democrats might be able to cut some kind of deal with Scalise to prevent the disaster of a shutdown.
So, as things now stand we’ve got Jordan (and Trump) vs. Scalise. The game of “chicken”, Speaker version is now underway. Oh to be a fly on the wall when House GOPers meet on ?Tuesday to hash out who they will elect as Speaker on Wednesday. That in case you didn’t know is the plan. However, as boxer Mike Tyson famously said everyone’s got a plan until they get punched in the mouth and it’s a safe bet it won’t be just Jordan and Scalise punching each other in the mouth in the days ahead and on Tuesday. Lots of their colleagues will be doing the same to each other. Gaetz would do well to show up in full body armor and a football helmet with padding on the outside as well as inside!
The Sunday morning shows might provide some insight into how things are leaning since there’s time for hosts and guest to have absorbed the news it’s a two-person (?) race now. However I still say all bets are off and we don’t have a clue how all this will play out. The House GOP might be in worse shape by the end of the day Tuesday than it already is!
We’ll just have to wait and see.
“…there’s a chance Scalise is savvy enough to know how devastating it would be to Republican’s chances of retaining the House next year if he leads them over the edge into a shutdown headed into the holidays. ”
denis, they may not care.
One scenario is that they do not or cannot elect one. I think that’s fine with them, ‘cuz they get their “no govt action on anything” accomplished.
Another scenario is they elect Jordan, in which case they get their wet dream come true: one of the key members of the J6 coup, right in there at the top of the govt they’re sworn to dismantle. Jordan starts screaming “You can’t indict me for J6 because I’m Speaker of the House.” Yeah, the one you wanted to literally kill. The What Subpoena Boy.
I said this earlier this week: the speakership horse race is NOT THE STORY. The story is giving the arsonists more matches.
Jennifer Rubin had it right on today in WaPo. A worthy read.
Which also leads me to wonder just how “wrapped up” they think the 2024 election is going to be. For them…
My vote goes Scalies in the republicans. Like you said. He’s smart enough to know shutting down the government is about as dumb as it gets. Now these guys are starting to get in trouble back in their districts. Sure they did interviews that might have shown one person mad. But what a lot of people are forgetting is that republicans are the party of law and order. You remember the definition of order. Both sides are getting tired of all the fighting. They are starting to figure out that maybe the Democrats are right. In case you missed the news the past couple weeks there’s a mass exodus going on right now. And it ain’t Democrats. Republicans and independents are jumping off the Republican shit show. They are seeing something. You happen to see the jobs report. It was off by I don’t know two hundred thousand or so. I thought they were going to have to call the paramedics for the fox 🦊 anchors. And they thought they had a small reprieve when they got the stock market thing they watch. But it turned out that it wasn’t as bad as they wanted either. Fed still has to play with the interest rate but not like it was earlier in the day. Now you do have a third option on speaker that almost happened in January. Hakim Jeffries is throwing his hat in the ring at some point. Which he only needs like what six or eight. Something like that. You might find that many pissed off moderates to crossover. Who knows, only the shadow knows!
Republicons are the party of Lawyer and Odor.
So a freedumb carcass member or a KKKer
Great choices.