REVEALED: Polls Are Bull$hit, Dem Insider Blows Whistle On Internal Polling Kept From Us For $$$ Reasons

Finally, a breath of fresh air and a moment of sanity. What you’re about to read makes total and complete sense and moreover, it reveals how the political system itself is corrupt. I’m not talking about politicians being corrupt. I am talking about the election system, how both polling and fundraising follow the race horse, nail biting, both sider mentality that may indeed have served us well for the past 50-some years that scientific polling has been a tool, but does not serve us now. In truth it harms us.

And as I wrote about the other day, the other institution in this country which is broken is the press and its coverage of politics. It, too depends upon an antiquated system of reporting. It has a symbiotic relationship with the election system. It keeps people on the edge of their seats, frightened, depressed, and hopefully sending money and engaging with media.

Between the bad polling and the antiquated boilerplate method of reporting on politics, no wonder we’re all nuts. And don’t get me wrong. I’m all for supporting the Democratic party financially. They have a hell of a lot of work to do. And God knows I am all for people reading about politics and engaging with stories like mad. I’m part of that system. What I specifically cannot stand and what has gotten my ire this election cycle is the artificial overlay of the election system and antiquated political coverage methods, regardless of what is actually happening. It is these partial truths we hear which are to the detriment of the process itself. We need truth in political coverage. We need the election system to chill a bit and tell the truth as well.

Read this portion of Michael Moore’s latest newsletter and you will see exactly what I am talking about and what needs to change — and why.

Well, my friends, it’s been a very interesting few days. After 5 weeks of my daily insistence that we, the majority, are going to have a Blue Tsunami on Tuesday, I am now (especially after being on TV last night) hearing from Democratic Party insiders who want to tell me (confidentially) that my belief in our victory is not unfounded and is now looking more and more, well, likely.

A couple of these Dem apparatchiks of course had their own reasons to share this good news with me. One asked if I could stop saying we’re gonna win. “We’re worried if people think we’ve pulled ahead,” one said to me, “there’s a chance they’ll say ‘oh good, I don’t need to vote!’”

“That’s old thinking,” I texted back. “The public is already setting new early-voting records. People — our people — are on fire! Women are fed up and in the middle of a not-so-quiet rampage. They’re gleefully looking forward to extracting the men from Congress who support the medieval practice of forced procreation.”

“True,” he texted back. “Pollsters show abortion as #3 on the list of concerns, but that doesn’t account for the intensity and yes it’s huge. The anger over Roe decision is huge.”

I added: “And the anger from young voters is also huge. They know we’ve left them with a dying planet. Their only hope for survival is to toss every last one of the planet killers overboard.“

“Agreed. They’ll also be there in record numbers on Tuesday.”

Another Dem Party person contacted me to thank me for the “brave and correct” stance of believing in the “possibility of the Democratic victory.” She also said I was probably hurting their fundraising.

“You mean,” I replied, “all those scary emails you guys keep sending out saying we need to ‘DONATE $17 BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT OR WE’RE GOING TO LOSE!!’”

“Yes,” she said. “We need the money. And yes, the more scared people are, the more they’ll give. Your blog is making many of them feel less scared and more hopeful. Not good Mike.”

“Hope,” I offered, “in a time like this, is not a bad thing. Especially if it is based on facts and not simply emotion. Why not have the DNC send out a mass email this weekend telling everyone that their hard work is paying off! Tell them what you just told me — that your internal research is showing Fetterman is going to win Pennsylvania by at least 6 points! Grassley in Iowa is probably going to lose. That New Hampshire was never really in play!”

“Don’t share those stats I gave you,“ she admonished me.

“Sure,” I laughed. “That’s why you gave them to me. Of all people. So I wouldn’t share them with a few million others. Do you also wanna tell me that Val Demings is going to beat Marco Rubio?”

“No.”

One other takeaway from these conversations was their belief that, in post-pandemic America, polling is a “broken science.”

“Don’t dignify polls by referring to them as a science,” I said. “It’s the fraud of propaganda, trying to invent a factual basis for what is a work of fiction.”

“You’re essentially right,” one admitted to me. “Before the vote in Kansas [this summer to keep legal abortion in their state Constitution], FiveThirtyEight wrote that the anti-abortion crowd was going to win by four points. They lost by 18 points! Polls are bullshit.”

They pointed out to me that these days a lot of “polls” are actually funded by corporate lobbying groups and others with Republican backing. Often when you hear about the latest “poll,” it’s often an aggregate of many polls and the Republican and business interests do their best to include their biased polls in the soup so that the percentage for their desired candidate rises to the top.

“Look at the small print,“ one of them said. “Some of them list a ‘margin of error, plus or minus, 10 or 12 points!’”

So it’s true — we are being played for suckers. The Republicans need us to believe that Mandela Barnes in Wisconsin doesn’t stand a chance. They must “depress” our vote, convince us we’re going to lose before we even open the ballot envelope.

Last night I received a letter to my Substack address from someone else who works inside the Democratic Party. Someone who wanted me to know the truth about what they knew from inside the (soft) belly of the party of Obama, JFK and FDR. He wanted me to know that what I’ve been telling you for 37 days is the truth and nothing but.

Here’s his letter:

In 2018, I started working as a consultant for the Democratic Party in its campaigns. It was a dream job come true. I’ve always been a politics junkie and it felt good to be doing my part (and make a living wage). 

But 2022 has broken me. 

Last year, I started working for the Dems on digital fundraising and let me tell ya, Mike: These motherf***ers in the Party really do care more about raising money than helping people or even winning their own elections.

You know all those emails that say “give us $25 or terrible stuff will happen”? Yeah, I’m the one who writes them.

Part of the reason I wanted to reach out to you is because of your prediction that Dems can still win big on Election Night. As someone on the inside who watches and monitors this stuff for a living — I want to tell you why you are 100% right.

Anytime you see a headline talking about a “Republican surge” in the polls, that data is likely sourced from one of three places: FiveThirtyEight, Real Clear Politics, or the Cook Political Report.

These outlets are poll aggregators that average the results of multiple polls to come up with their “predictions.”

Since September, the GOP has purposefully flooded the zone with conservative-leaning polls in an effort to game these aggregators.

This is admittedly a brilliant strategy — but it also means headlines warning of a red tsunami that may be severely overstating the Republican advantage.

It also explains why recent polls don’t reflect the early-voting data — which shows a clear Democratic advantage.

Numbers do, in fact, sometimes lie. If folks actually show up between now and Tuesday to the polls, the Democrats will win. 

I know you say it all the time — but please, please, please beg listeners to vote. 

J.

So there you have it. The “polls” of the last week (and I put the word in quotes to indicate its facetious nature) have had me ready to spit nails. Herschel Walker and Raphael Warnock in a dead heat? The last poll I read, about an hour ago, had them solidly at 48% each. Maybe it’s right. Maybe it will go to a runoff. This is the goddamnedest race I have ever seen in my life. It’s the epitome of what we say around here a lot, “if you wrote this as fiction, nobody would believe it.” Nobody would.

Would you watch a movie where some fine, upstanding member of the Black community, an incumbent senator, was challenged by a mentally defective man, from the same community, a man who most probably suffers from CTE from too many blows to the head playing football? And if that was cautionary enough, his track record of non stop lying, and then the personal issues of domestic violence, topped off with Russian roulette? And we could go on. But the latest polls assure us that he is a contender.

I think he’s toast, but maybe I just don’t understand the electorate in Georgia. Make that, I definitely do not understand the electorate in Georgia. I understand Marge Greene getting elected when she ran unopposed but this cycle? With a good candidate running against her?

That said, we did win the 2021 runoffs and send Ossoff and Warnock to the Senate so something can go right in Georgia from time to time. And Georgia did rout Trump and then refuse to do his election fraud bidding. Ergo, I have reason to believe the people of that state can do the right thing.

The only thing to be said for certain is we’re going to find out. We are absolutely going to find out and sooner rather than later.

On the larger scale, I pray that Michael Moore is right about this election because we seriously need to change these two systems, the election system and media coverage of elections, to where they both serve the people and not hamstring us instead.

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