How often have I written in the past that the GOP’s ability to message effectively, and especially preemptively had to turn Democratic stomachs. After all, it was their rapid response messaging of the ACA that led to the astroturf Tea Party Revolution of 2010. They could do this because cognizant of, and familiar with the issues. They were tuned in politically.
Dear God, not anymore. It’s amazing what such a short period of time can do. 8 years of Democratic national success, followed by a 6-year slide into fascism has left the GOP as politically tone deaf as a gamboling puppy. They have bunkered up and speak only to and for their base rabid core supporters.
As a result, their political tone deafness has turned into political stupidity. Not only are they voting against issues that are popular with a majority of voters, they’re not even bothering to provide at least a sensible sounding reason for their vote. And even worse political malpractice, they’re cockily voting against issues that are made-for-TV-ready. As in political attack ads.
All 50 GOP US Senators voted yesterday against a bill that would allow Medicare to negotiate directly with drug companies on prices, and cap insulin copays at $35 a month. Senators and Democratic challengers in senior rich states like Florida and Arizona can beat the GOP to death with this. And for everybody else, they can hammer the GOP for literally blocking the Democrats from capping everybody else’s insulin copays at $35 a month. Talk about a pocketbook issue.
Since the runaway train SCOTUS overturned Roe v Wade, GOP dominated states have literally been in a feeding frenzy to outdo each other in anti-abortion laws. But last week in Kansas, at least 15% of GOP voters crossed over to vote to keep abortion protected in the state constitution. Here in Nevada, anti-abortion attack ads against GOP candidates have been flying for over a month, and as more states complete their primaries, you can look for it to start there too.
One of the GOP’s staunchest support groups is veterans. And yet, a couple of weeks ago 25 GOP Senators copped a snit and blocked passage of a law funding medical care for vets who were exposed to toxic burn pits in Iraq and Afghanistan. Worse, they got caught high fiving and fist bumping each over their perfidy. It took them a week of nationally covered protests to get their heads out of their asses. In high density military installation states like Georgia, Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, and Texas, look for all GOP candidates to be tarred with the anti-vet brush in attack ads.
All 50 GOP US Senators voted yesterday against making uber rich shitpokes and billion dollar corporations from paying at least something approaching their fair share of taxes. Since inflation and the economy are top tier issues, look for attack ads hammering on the GOP for catering to the uber rich.
There are 3 major problems for the GOP with this. First, they have no logical sounding counter narrative for any of this, nor do they seem to care. Second, they’ve been so public and arrogant about their positions that the Democrats literally have more material than they can use for attack ads. And third, and worst of all, it isn’t just the Democrats against them anymore. Anti-Trump groups like The Lincoln Project, the very GOP strategists that used to give the Democrats night terrors, are now going to rip into the GOP like a shark through chum.
It has already been reported that Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell is quietly going through caucus and GOP circles, trying to dampen GOP enthusiasm and expectations for retaking the Senate in November. And for good reason, A recent Politico analysis now has the Democrats chances of retaining the Senate at 59-41%.
But I’m going to be watching The Cook Political Report. Before the first primary, their analysis showed the GOP picking up 30-45 seats. Last week, apparently based on GOP candidate quality, they downgraded that estimate to 15-30 seats. We’ll see what happens as more basically unelectable general campaign candidates emerge from GOP primaries.
Take heart, this is by no means over. having a strong, coherent message is critical to a successful campaign. But equally important is the cash to get that message out. And right now, the Democrats are killing the GOP in fundraising, thanks largely to the greed of Traitor Tot. Activate, motivate, and vote! Don’t touch that dial.
I agree the GOP has given us lots to work with. I feel actual optimism about getting actual control of the Senate – enough to nullify the antics of two particular Senators. More on that in a moment. I’m much more worried about the House given the combination of ever more effective GOP gerrymandering, voter intimidation/suppression and GOP state laws allowing more ability of ignoring actual results keeping us from holding the House. Again, in the Senate we need more than 52 in our caucus because while we can count on Manchin and Sinema to piss in the soup regularly there are others who on various matters are tentative at best.
As for messaging, you’re correct the GOP has always been better. Much better in fact as I’m sure you’d agree. However, even with The Lincoln Project and Meidas Touch pitching in I fear we won’t take the level of advantage we can and must. We are trying to defy historical trends, and while this year is unique we’d be fools to say given the GOP’s repeated hitting itself in the head with a hammer I don’t believe the old “all bets are off” applies. Even now.
Why? Because as you’ve noted (before now) we don’t get on the same page, much less in lockstep the way the GOP is known to. Sure, they are in disarray right now and will have problems in many races this fall but OUR side can’t resist sniping at each other either. As details of the recent achievements get explored mark my words we will have major Democratic names and groups complaining about what we DIDN’T get! And that could be more than enough to depress turnout when we need something beyond even 2018. I want badly to be wrong but I can hear OUR side, people that get listened to complaining and boosting the “what difference does it make if I vote?” sentiment that has cost us so dearly in the past. Again, I hope like hell I’m wrong. But I believe we are still in deep shit, even if we have a chance to swim to shore and climb out.
The tide is carrying us in, but we are still going to have to swim like hell to make it! It can be done, but no one should think we are anywhere close to being in control.
The possible advantage in the House is that many of the candidates are younger and know how to message. For example, I wouldn’t be surprised if both Maloney and Nadler lose in their face-off to the third candidate, Suraj Patel, in their NY CD.