When all is said and done, people vote their own self interest Political adage
Adages tend to become adages for a reason. Because they prove themselves over time. Amd while no adage is universal, it tends to hold up for the vast majority.
Here’s a perfect example. As we all know, there is a rock solid base of about 5% who declare themselves as proud independents. In presidential election years, they are the true wild card, but in midterm elections, they are as predictable as the tides. Their mantra is Throw the bums out! It doesn’t matter which party is in power, they want them out. Another prime example is the true, diehard Trombie, especially the Q-Anon variety. They really don’t care what Traitor Tot says or does, they’ll vote for him purely for the purpose of pissing off liberals.
But for the vast majority of the population, the time honored adage holds true, they vote their personal self interest, i.e. their pocketbooks. And six weeks from tomorrow, we’re about to get a true bell weather as to just how bad the GOP wholesale electoral slaughter could be.
Six weeks from tomorrow, especially if you’re tuned into MSNBC, it’s going to be all Virginia, all damn day. Because Virginia is one of a handful of states and Commonwealths that hold off year state elections. And this election is shaping up to be a doozy.
First of all, Virginia is a rare state in which a Governor can’t succeed him or herself. They can run for another term, but not in succession. Which means GOPtard Glen Youngkin is going to have to vacate his government paid housing and just go back to making billions by playing fast and loose with Other People’s Money.
This is not going to be a good year for the GOP in Virginia. I didn’t catch the name of the GOP troll running for Governor this cycle, but the Democratic candidate is former US House member Abigail Spanberger. And the poll Rachel Maddow showed today shows her with a 51-40 advantage six weeks out. That’s for starters.
But here’s the McGuffin. The fabled October Surprise hit Virginia about 10 days early this year. Earlier today, one of the largest healthcare providers in Virginia announced the closing of three different rural healthcare facilities, due to the gutting of Medicaid in Traitor Tot’s Big beautiful Bill. When presented with pointed questions by reporters, the head of the Virginia GOP called it a Great day for rural Virginians, since they will now have access to better, more consistent care at other facilities. Yeah, sh*t for brains, facilities 2-4 hours away.
I’m not just going to be looking for gains in the US House six weeks from tomorrow, I’m going to be more laser focused on gains for the Democrats in the Virginia legislature. Because those maps are different from the US House maps. There’s more overlap, and when you think of the hundreds of thousands of rural Votegomoms with small children or elderly parents, all of whom will now require multi hour rides back and forth for something as simple as basic healthcare, much less emergency healthcare, those residents are going to be looking for a sacrificial lamb. And the head of the Virginia GOP is proud of having closed down their closest healthcare.
And here’s why this is so important, even 12 months before the 2026 midterms. The GOP Big Beautiful Piece Of Sh*t is going to be the gift that keeps on giving. Here’s what I mean.
Remember the Affordable Care Act of 2009? Obama’s signature first term legislative accomplishment. It opened up healthcare for tens of millions of Americans, but it didn’t do it all at once. Some of the most popular pieces didn’t even kick into gear until like year 4 or 5, which is why the popularity languished in the first few years. But now? It’s almost like Social security, f*ck with it at your own peril.
Well, the same thing is true for Traitor Tot’s boondoggle. The GOP made sure that the Medicaid cuts took place almost immediately, to give their vindictive base that almost immediate sugar high of cruelty. But there are plenty more critical and cruel cuts to things like SNAP, mental health, welfare, and other social services that don’t kick into effect until either October 1st, when fiscal 2026 starts, or until after the first of the year.
And this is actually a double whammy, since not only are the people most likely to be affected the deepest part of the GOP’s rural base, but El Pendejo Presidente is not on the ballot next November, so no bootstraps for state GOP candidates to grab onto. And considering that The Cheeto Prophet’s approval ratings are at or below his ratings in the days after January 6th, there wouldn’t be much boost there anyway.
Look, from here on out, the Democrats running for the US House and Senate can run their campaigns however they like, but the candidates running for state legislatures would be wise to tie their opponents to the state GOP and Trump and the congressional GOP caucus with baling wire. Because as that moron in Virginia proved today, the state organs will not run away from the misery, and candidates for state office can personalize the misery to crucify their opponents. News Flash! The 2026 campaign starts today.
I thank you for the privilege of your time.
“News Flash! The 2026 campaign starts today.”
OR
News Flash! The countdown to King George/Trump and the acolytes stymieing the democratic process with declarations of martial law in Blue areas if not nationally starts today.
If what you said was true, Trump would not be illegally sitting in the oval office. People tend to vote their feelings, not their self-interest.
They vote for what feels like their best interest.
“In presidential election years, they are the true wild card, but in midterm elections, they are as predictable as the tides. Their mantra is Throw the bums out! It doesn’t matter which party is in power, they want them out.”
Just a nitpick, Murf, but those independents apparently don’t hit the off-year elections all that often since far too many of “the bums” are returned to office.
Looking at a graph at OpenSecrets.org, from 1964 to 2024, the reelection rate of incumbents to the US House has been no less than 85% and the last time it was actually that low was 1970. Some other interesting midterm results: In 1994 (with the GOP’s “Contract on–I mean, with–America”), it was a 90% reelection rate; in 2006 (with the Democratic blowback against Dubya), it was 94.1%; in 2010 (the Year of the Teabaggers), it was 85.4%; and in 2018 (Dems returned to leadership in Congress), it was 91%. Even in the 1974 midterms (with Watergate on everyone’s mind), incumbents were still returned to office at an 88% rate.
The Senate has been slightly better but most of it came between 1964 and 1988. Between 1974 and 1980, the incumbent return rate went from 85% in 1974 to 64% in 1976 to 60% in 1978 and reaching an all-time low of 55% in 1980. But, since 1990, the rates have swung between 80% and the mid-to-upper 90s% (2000 and 2006 were both at 79.3%; 2022 saw a 100% return rate while 2020 saw just 84% and 2024 saw 88%).
Graphs at https://www.opensecrets.org/elections-overview/reelection-rates
The real problem is this actual myth of “throw the bums out” ignores the reality that the “bums” are ALWAYS outside your state or district. YOUR “local” guy is NEVER seen as a part of the problem; this is definitely more on the independents since they do seem to be less likely to “throw out” their local Congresscritters but they do seem to be among the most vocal urging everyone “just throw them all out.” The folks who are definitely partisan are most likely to dump their local guy IF said local guy is the other party but, during primaries, it tends to depend on how the parties are playing out. If the Party with the President has an incumbent the President favors, the faithful are more likely to return him in the primary. But, even an incumbent who’s pissed off the same-party President can still win IF he can point to things he’s done that have helped his constituents (even when you have a rabid group–such as the MAGAts–turning out for the primaries more than the casual voter, they can still support their incumbent over the President’s preferred candidate if he can make a strong case for being sent back to DC).
republicans have long been damn proud of their lack of education and voting against their self interest. they both started around 45 years ago.