Ken Paxton is toxic to his own party. It’s an amazing thing when a Democrat can be leading a Republican in deep red Texas but Paxton has managed to assure such a development. A new poll from Texas Public Opinion Research (TPOR) as reported by The Texas Tribune showed what is different so far for Talarico:
TPOR’s poll found Talarico leading among voters who do not have a college degree — a group that has consistently favored Republicans in Texas and across the country — and dominating among independents, less than a quarter of whom said they planned to vote for Paxton. The attorney general also had weaker Republican support than in other recent surveys, with nearly one in five GOP voters saying they were undecided or would vote for Talarico.
….
Paxton’s 40% vote share is the lowest he has received in a public poll post-runoff. Other surveys have found Republicans were consolidating behind him. But the TPOR poll had Talarico winning 7% of self-described Republicans, and an additional 12% remained undecided. Meanwhile, only 1% of self-identified Democrats indicated they would vote for Paxton, and 6% were undecided.
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Perhaps the biggest outlier was Talarico’s lead among non-college-educated voters, who favored the Democrat by nine percentage points — 45% to 36%. He led by 1 percentage point among those with at least a bachelor’s degree.
There have been signs nationally that the Republican hold on non-college educated voters is cracking due to what Trump has done to the economy.
A perfect storm in Texas would involve an unpopular Republican candidate, an unpopular president, a terrible economy for working people, and a Democrat who is moderate and speaking to the concerns of voters.
Winning Texas will still be a massive lift for Democrats, but if it happens, it will signal one of the worst midterm election defeats by an incumbent president’s party in history.
Wouldn’t it be loverly?
[Excerpts from PoliticusUSA]
For a poll to be showing Talarico’s lead to be just 5 points proves at least one of two things: First, GOP voters are now the ones who would vote for a yellow dog, as long as it was on the GOP ticket; and second, that GOP voters will lie to a pollster’s face.