I watched a good bit of this morning’s DOD Press Conference on the Iran bombing damage assessment. Despite writing another article at the time I couldn’t help noticing how animated and downright angry SecDef Pete Hegseth was. I kept having flashbacks to Sean Spicer’s angry rant about the size of the crowd at Trumpty’s first inauguration. Spicer had clearly been ordered to go out and raise hell. It seemed clear to me that because there are legitimate questions about just how much damage was done to Iran’s nuclear program Trumpty wanted to put on a show with the NATO summit going on. Hegseth was more than willing. He raved and ranted, just like Spicer. About the only difference was he had backup (General Caine) – and his suit fit!
You can read a description of the event from Politico. At least some time was taken to put together something more substantial that a single dude (Sean Spicer)in a kind of glum setting waving his arms and shouting lies. Our SecDef was loaded for bear and from behind his podium lashed out with attacks on ANYONE who doubted the “fact” that Iran’s nuclear program was completely, absolutely, like totally and forever DESTROYED:
“Because you cheer against Trump so hard — in your DNA and in your blood, cheer against Trump — because you want him not to be successful so bad, you have to cheer against the efficacy of these strikes,” Hegseth chided reporters at a Pentagon briefing. “You have to hope maybe they weren’t effective.”
He continued, citing various new outlets and chiding them for being sooooooo enamored of the ‘initial assessment’, more or less saying they were suckers and idiots for putting so much stock into it. I had a quick thought on that in the moment, as in ‘wait a minute Petey Boy – that night and the next morning YOU and your boss Trumpty were crowing about proof of the bigly awesome damage.’ In other words it was fine for them to use an initial assessment THEY like, but not for others to talk about more considered initial assessments? Especially since it’s obvious that since we are talking about facilities deep underground we might never get reliable evidence of what was or was not damaged or destroyed! But Hegseth wasn’t done. Not by a long shot. The linked article goes on to tell us:
Hegseth echoed Trump’s claim that the mission resulted in a “total obliteration” of Iran’s nuclear program and framed questions about the outcome of the strikes as an affront to the pilots who carried them out. “We should celebrate it as Americans,” Hegseth said. “Choose your word: destroyed, defeated, obliterated.”
Preliminary intelligence reportedly concluded that core components of Iran’s nuclear program remain intact and that its uranium stockpile was moved before the strike. Hegseth didn’t directly rebut any of its conclusions but noted that it had been labeled “low confidence” and that the press had exaggerated its significance.
Not really talked about in the linked article was Hegseth’s ranting about “no one” talking about the complexity of the mission, or the brave people who drove home the attacks. Say what? Here, right here on super-duper liberal Politizoom I wrote an article that did in fact describe both the weapons used and the complex operation that allowed us to deliver them and get people safely home after an incredibly long (over 18 hours one-way) flight. Guess what? I knew some of the information but looked up multiple articles to get parts I needed to put my own together. Granted, my point was that a half-billion dollars (if not more) was spent on that strike but it made a point of acknowledging what it took to carry out. As did other articles. IOW Hegesth’s claim about no one being interested in or talking about the skill and bravery of the aircrews or the complexity of the mission itself was complete and utter bullshit.
Enough about the ranting and raving part of this morning’s ‘Fluff the Trump’ show. As I said, once Little Petey was done Gen. Caine took over with a calm presentation that at first glance appeared impressive. Fact is, the logistics to carry out the strikes, the efforts of those who took part and the precision with which the bombs hit their targets (in specific ways) WAS an impressive feat. Still, as Politico (and others) note for all the details certain ones were missing. As in confirmation of damage to actual production facilities, equipment and personnel:
Contrasting with Hegseth’s confrontational approach during the briefing, Joint Chiefs Chair Gen. Dan Caine delivered a more measured, lengthy walk-through of the operation, describing the years of planning, bunker buster development and intelligence gathering by the Pentagon’s lesser-known Defense Threat Reduction Agency, which tracked Fordo’s construction over 15 years.
“This was the brightest explosion that I’ve ever seen. It literally looked like daylight,” Caine said, quoting one of the pilots involved in the mission.
While Caine deferred questions on the final damage assessments to the intelligence community, he said the weapons worked as intended and praised the troops involved in planning and carrying out the attack, as well as the defense of Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar from Iranian missile attacks this week in response.
That last part is what’s important. The bombs hit where and how they were supposed to. BUT it’s up to our intel agencies to figure out how much damage was actually done. And by damage I’m not just referring to the actual facilities hit but Iran’s overall nuclear capability. As I said we may never fully know.
Here’s what I DO know. Fordo, the main target is buried deep within a freaking mountain. Several hundred feet at least. That’s a lot of rock to penetrate. The GBU-57 bunker buster bombs used (years of work and $500 million just to develop them) can penetrate up to 16 meters of reinforced concrete. That’s about forty feet and while the mountain rock might not have been steel reinforces there was a helluva lot more than 40 feet to get through.
Now, some will point out Gen. Caine’s talk about targeting ventilation shafts. And it IS possible to target ones we know about with the level of precision needed including the angle of attack to get them past just the opening. Remember your Star Wars movies and the bombs going down the shaft to the reactors? The problem here is a single 90 degree turn is all it takes to thwart the bomb from getting to the actual place targeted. The bomb would simply hit the wall of the airshaft and penetrate straight ahead. Sure, it will seal off the shaft but the actual blast effects won’t be anywhere near the room(s) the bombs are intended to hit! Somehow, for some reason I think Iranian engineers who developed these sites knew that back when they were built!
Don’t get me wrong. These are seriously huge bombs and the shock effect even through a couple hundred feet of rock could cause some collapsing of roofs/walls in larger rooms in these facilities. However, once again I note that the development of bunker busting bombs up to and including the GBY-57 are well known. AND Iran has to have figured even if the U.S. didn’t drop them at their underground (or inside a freaking mountain) sites we might well have given some to Israel. Or as was the case with their nuclear material they used to make their own nukes Israel “stole” them from our stores. I put stole in quotes because that “MUF” (material unaccounted for) with enriched uranium fifty years ago was probably a ‘wink and nod’ type of thing.
My point is that Iran would have almost certainly reinforced the roofs and walls of the important parts of those facilities precisely to mitigate shock waves coming through the rock overhead. I’m not saying NO damage to important stuff happened. That’s a real possibility. However there’s more than ample reason to doubt claims we totally destroyed them. THAT my friends is why Gen. Caine, and for that matter Kegsbreath Hegseth didn’t want to provide any actual details on actual damage to what we really wanted to damage/destroy.
Well, it was in its own way an entertaining TV show. But that’s all it was. A made for/on behalf of Trump’s ego TV show. Perspective folks. It IS possible to polish a turd to a high gloss (Mythbusters proved it) but it’s still a turd. So is the claim we have utterly and completely destroyed Iran’s nuclear program.
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I wonder how long before Petey starts shoving wads of gum in his mouth….
it’s typical the way trump and hegseth turn criticism of their claims into criticism of the flight crews. no one did that. it just doesn’t matter how good they are if their weapons aren’t up to the task.
And if the mission hadn’t done even half the job that Drumpf was claiming, you damn well know Dear Leader would’ve thrown the pilots and crew carrying out that mission under the bus, even going so far as to demand they be court-martialed for “dereliction of duty.”
This whole thing could be a diversion. There were reports overseas that Iran had three days warning that an attack was coming, and knew the targets. It’s possible trump gave them this information to prevent loss of life, but it’s also possible Iran obtained the intelligence covertly. That raises the interesting possibility that the source was Hegseth’s leaky office, or Gabbard’s, with the information taking the Russian route to Tehran in the latter case.
A perfectly run air-strike with perfectly aimed ground penetrating bombs that can punch through to 100 feet, is still a failure if what you’re aiming for is at 200 feet or more deep.
Another half billion dollars wasted.