I can see why many Democrats are concerned, some even panicking over some recent polls. Polls that show President Biden’s approval ratings are so low, that say many (especially younger voters) are worried about his age (What about Trump? He’s only a few years younger!), and especially the one showing Trump beats Biden by two percentage points next year. It’s true that President Biden isn’t getting the credit due him for all his administration has accomplished. Even on foreign policy, no doubt in part because of his staunch, on the surface unqualified support for Israel and even Netanyahu. (The truth is somewhat more nuanced on that) Also, despite the record job creation and general good economic news (no recession after all unless House GOPers force a govt. shutdown and trigger one) again with younger voters they have some valid reasons to feel left out.
So yes, a year out it looks if not bad for President Biden things hardly seem encouraging when you look at polling including from some respected organizations. Still, there’s a factor that will be significant next year. Donald Trump.
Raw Story has a short article that says the Trump factor is going to mean everything next year. And not in a good way for Trump. It refers to an article from The Atlantic but that one is behind a paywall so I won’t include a link to it here. What matters is the Raw Story piece I linked to references a veteran GOP pollster who is convinced Trump doesn’t have a chance against Biden despite what current polling says. If the matchup is Biden vs. Trump, as the Raw Story headline states Trump is “uniquely poised to lose.” From the article:
In fact, veteran Republican pollster Bill McInturff tells Brownstein that he’s seen an unprecedented number of voters say their views of Trump would be their most important consideration when they think about a hypothetical Trump-Biden rematch.
It goes on to say McInturff says he’s never seen poll results between an incumbent and challenger as shown in the recent NBC poll. The one that said in a head-t0-head matchup it would be Trump getting 46 percent and Biden only 44 percent. He says if that’s the matchup we’ll be in “uncharted waters.” Maybe. Then again maybe he’s trying to soft-soap the reality he’s actually seeing in numbers he’s getting and which associates are getting in internal polls.
There are however some important things to keep in mind and going back to foreign policy the Israel/Hamas war has changed the dynamic. Since Hamas’ terrorist attack initiated this war President Biden’s approval has dropped eleven points among Democrats polled. Independents have a more favorable view of Palestinians. Not Hamas, but the regular people and especially those in Gaza who have suffered far more by Israel’s use of military force to take out Hamas (who was never voted into power by Palestinians, but put in control of Gaza by Israel) so that likely accounts for the NBC poll numbers. Long before we get to the summer and the conventions, and then into the actual campaign when people are really paying attention that matter will be if not resolved a crisis (including PR wise) of manageable proportions. And while in the past couple of months it has caused the likeability gap Biden had over Trump to narrow to them being more or less tied Biden will be well out in front again. Not to mention the impact of Biden’s legislation will have fully kicked in.
It’s weird how a year can seem like forever sometimes, yet go by in the blink of an eye at other times. That applies to politics. Make no mistake when I say there is a LOT of work to be done. However, Trump has the GOP so scared that even if he’s convicted of felonies next year (and he almost certainly will be, at least in DC on the January 6 charges) he’ll be the GOP nominee and that’s a problem. For both Trump and the GOP despite current polls. Trump’s own big, fat mouth will be the root of his (and the GOP) losing. The Raw Story article cites Ron Brownstein speaking to Trump’s polarizing rhetoric and remind voters unhappy (at the moment) with Biden why they chose him over Trump three years ago. Anyone out there think Trump’s going to tone it down? With each passing week he gets MORE polarizing. So in that context consider how Raw Story concludes it’s article:
“In the 2022 and 2023 elections, a crucial slice of voters down on the economy and Biden’s performance voted for Democrats in the key races anyway, largely because they viewed the Trump-aligned GOP alternatives as too extreme,” he writes. “Eventually, Trump’s excesses could shape the 2024 election as much as Biden’s record will.”
I don’t know about you, but I’m thinking pollsters like McInturff (and others) believe Trump will not only continue to be like he is but get even worse, and their internal numbers are showing just how bad that makes things for Trump. And probably the GOP too. So stout hearts people. If WE do OUR jobs and educate the public, and work like hell to get out the vote and counter what will surely be a new GOPer record attempt at voter suppression we’ll see Trump go down in flames.
I heard someone on TV say, that people can hold two thoughts in their minds at once. Her point was, they may disapprove of Biden, but push comes to shove and they will sure vote for him over tRump. Also, people may disapprove of Biden’s record, but don’t assume that means they prefer a republican. They may want him to be more liberal or left-leaning. tRump’s mouth has to factor into the equation. He keeps spewing raw sewage and as his legal woes grow, he only seems to be getting worse. That certainly won’t attract any new supporters in my mind.
my observation is that the majority of disinfo out there often
begins as a form of push-polling.
i.e., “Because Biden is so old and feeble minded, do you think it’s a bad idea to re-elect him?”
or
“You’re paying record amounts for your food, gas and housing. Isn’t time to
remove the cause from power and replace with someone more decisive and
blah blah blah…”
In case this is news to you, you can contact the White House via email. Just google contact White House and a form pops up to fill in and send. I have done this twice when I felt that what I needed to say was important. Like please make more noise, be more visible, and don’t wait until the last minute to do it do it now! I think it’s great that we can reach out to our elected leaders. I think that President Biden needs to hear from supporters and maybe get some feedback on his performance. Just my opinion. I know I’m nobody, but I believe in my heart that SOMEone is reading these emails and letting the President know what his supporters are saying. Again, just my opinion.