As President-Elect Donald Trump makes plans for his control of the executive branch, American retailers are already planning for the new economic reality. Given Trump’s promise to impose tariffs on nearly all imported goods, the price of those goods is set to go straight up in accord with a longstanding and never-ending principle – costs get shoved over to the consumer and out of the way of profit. It just “is.”
According to CBS News:
Americans stand to lose between $46 billion and $78 billion in spending power each year on products including apparel, toys, furniture, household appliances, footwear and travel goods due to the new tariffs, the National Retail Federation stated in findings released Monday.
Unless one has billions already, the costs will be felt – another longstanding principle. It is hard out there. It goes on:
“Retailers rely heavily on imported products and manufacturing components so that they can offer their customers a variety of products at affordable prices,” NRF Vice President of Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said in a statement. “A tariff is a tax paid by the U.S. importer, not a foreign country or the exporter. This tax ultimately comes out of consumers’ pockets through higher prices.”
Yeah – well, usually. There is a place for tariffs. In those few situations in which other governments provide subsidies to manufacture or export goods – especially lumber, steal, and some agricultural goods, it is absolutely the federal government’s place to step in with a “wait, wait, wait, hold up.” That is what is ultimately at the root of free trade agreements. “We agree to not subsidize goods and not put tariffs in place – be free.”
But blanket tariffs? Yes, those do become a tax on American consumers and that is just how it goes. Having said that, it is still possible that some of President-elect Trump’s economic advisors will come in with fancy graphs and an explanation as to how consumer confidence works – the fact that confidence will shatter and people start saving – which is then the quickest way to a recession, changing things immediately. We just got a lesson in who consumers blame when prices rise across the board. It is very possible that Trump decides that it is in the country’s best interests, along with his, to keep tariffs off the table.
Businesses don’t just respond to cost when it comes to passing along prices. They also respond to the bigger dynamic. It is really hard to make money when the future remains so hazy, especially in a situation so dependent on the politics of the day. Businesses will not invest in the future unless they can sort of see the future. As I’ve written many times, the American economy is based largely on the 30 year mortgage, the bet that conditions will look similar enough 30 years from now that it profits everyone. Mortgages are not the only factor, just one of the biggest. Other personal and business investment is seen through the same prism and follows the same principles.
Tariffs shatter through windows looking toward the future. Yes, tariffs can be lifted in six months, 18 months – or never, all dependent on someone else’s priorities. Do you want to place a bet on future conditions you cannot see? Market conditions set the dynamic under which decisions must be made. The absolute safest bet is to hold on to see what happens. If the future is hazy, it is safer to wait three years and then look at the lay of the land. But the world might find itself in the grips of a depression by then.
It need not even be that hard. If consumers – citizens – are scared of the future, they will definitely be risk averse and start stocking away for that rainy day to ride out the recession-depression. There is a chance that then President Trump will see the lay of the landscape and pull back in the best interests of the country – those that happen to align with his own.
There is a time and place for tariffs. But blanket ones overnight? You already see businesses planning. Change is in the air in many more ways than we think in any given moment.
God Bless: I can be reached at [email protected] and @JasonMiciak
Whatever hell comes our way…the voters asked to have that pineapple shoved up their collective asses.
Yes, overwhelmingly so. But we ALL will suffer, even if we were sane and voted against him.
I feel betrayed by Americans who voted for tRump. Their sheer stupidity and self-absorption, their narcissism, their inability to see through the avalanche of lies, propaganda, brain-washing, their spiteful need to lash out at others they perceive to be at fault for their own failures, their racism, misogyny, lack of any kind of memory of what’s gone before, their absolute failure as responsible citizens of this once great nation, their inability to see what’s right before their eyes. These people failed us and betrayed us to someone who doesn’t give a royal sh*t for anyone else and will take no time at all in proving it. The world must see us as the most stoopid people ever known to history. It was one thing in Germany in the 30’s, no one could have guessed at what was to come. But we’ve been witness to that tragedy and yet our fellow citizens decided to saddle us with someone who praised Hitler and will do what he can to replicate the hatefulness, discrimination, insanity, incarcerations, if not the mass murder, although, he’s already killed at least a million of us with his mishandling of Covid, so maybe he won’t have qualms about going there. If we can’t trust our own people to do the right thing, where does that leave us?
I feel the same way. We KNEW who he was. Yet he’s back, whether it was assisted again by Russia or not. Who can ever know. But he has always said he loves the uneducated and, well, that is who voted for him. Yes, uneducated, stupid, ignorant, racist, misogynistic, xenophobic, idiots who are like him and can’t wait for him to do what he promised. And I am ashamed and afraid.
Good thing I actually know how to make bar soaps and a few other things from scratch. Looks like I will need my skills now more than ever.
Less than an hour ago I was speaking with a childhood friend who now lives in Vegas. I reminded him of stuff we’d heard from our parents and grandparents that lived through the hardships of the Great Depression and then WWII. Not just the extensive rationing of all manner of good in the latter case – rationing that the whiny assed country we’ve become would NEVER put with no matter how important the cause. But other stuff too. Like repairing and patching old clothes, darning socks, pressing little scraps of soap together to form a “new bar”, cutting sheets down the middle and resewing them to even out wear to make them last longer. Growing whatever food they could in whatever bits of land/space they had and “canning” food.
Americans might find themselves forced into such things and sooner than they think. Hell, Elon Musk has already said regular Americans had better be ready to endure some serious pain. Can’t have fabulously rich BILLIONAIRES not being able to afford whatever new “toy” or luxury they suddenly decide they’ve just ‘got to have.’ I’m reminded of a moment from the movie RKO 281 (it was about making Citizen Kane) where as Hearst was finally being forced to deal with his spending habits his longtime love (his wife wouldn’t grant a divorce so he could marry his actresss paramour) asked him about some hugely expensive thing he was staring at. She asked why he’d bought it and he said he needed it. She responded he ‘wanted it – there’s a difference.’ Hearst replied almost malevolently “Not to me.”
But Americans have made their choice. Like Trump they will blame everyone but themselves for what’s to come. That includes those of us who fought so hard to keep Trump from winning. Mark my words these asshats will start blaming US for not preventing the devastation that will take place. They’ll talk about how WE should have tried harder, made things more clear even though every time we tried they didn’t want to hear it!
Oh but that’s only a start. While talking with Jim with whom I’ve had strong disagreements at times (a couple of decades ago a conversation led to us not speaking for several years) about Ukraine. He didn’t dispute my pointing out that for all the losses Putin has entire divisions (with equipment which given what Russia learned the hard way is probably now properly maintained) that’s been in the east as a deterrent to China. It’s easy enough to imagine Putin and Xi cutting a deal with Trump saying “do what you want – just leave us out of things and we won’t say or do shit) China gets the Pacific and Putin gets Europe. (The middle east will be the proverbial ‘player to be named later’) Putin can move divisions ready to fight to Ukraine and Belarus will probably commit its own forces. Once Ukraine is lost Belarus will help “secure” (brutalize) Ukraine and the Russian army will next invade Poland. Jim agreed the Article V issue will be huge. If when Germany had swept through Europe FDR had told Churchill ‘sorry but you guys are on your own’ I wouldn’t be writing this. Nazis would have taken over this country too.
But FDR got the U.S. to commit to saving the U.K. and restoring freedom in Europe using England as the base to do so. When Putin invades Poland we will face the same moment FDR did. Is there anyone who thinks Trump will commit to saving Europe and NATO? To do so will wind up requiring American forces both ground and air and that means American blood. THIS generation of Americans choosing to fight like my parent’s generation did to preserve freedom for others and ourselves in the process is dubious at best. Closer to laughable actually.
My disgust is beyond words. Jim is far more conservative than I but he didn’t disagree (and believe me he’s someone who would speak up if he did) with anything I said. He’s a smart guy and made a career in the news business so he knows the score. I have to try to think about something else for a while. I’ve been in a pretty bad place mentally and for my own good need to stand down for a few hours because the more I think the more doom I see for the future.
I agree 100%. This is a hard thing to get through I cannot stop crying. I know and fear what is coming
I guess it’s time for someone to start printing yard signs, car magnets and bumper stickers (remember them?) saying, “Don’t Blame Me – I Voted For Harris!”
Democrats everywhere, and especially in Congress, should be ready at the earliest signs of the impending economic calamity to nip the finger-pointing at Democrats ln the bud by loudly and repeatedly reminding them, “WE TOLD YOU SO!!”, and I KNOW Jasmine Crockett and Katie Porter will be right there up front.
Maybe I’m giving them too much credit, but I envision the cult realizing their mistake and turning on Trump and Vance well before the 2026 midterms, especially when the promised economic boon turns out to be MORE inflation than they dealt with under Bidenomics. We’re dealing with a “What have you done for me lately?” mindset with a short timeframe. The Musk-rat’s “enduring pain” statement has been ignored by the cult, but the reality will definitely bite.
Do any of you really believe that the orange dumbass will NOT put his “beautiful” “the most beautiful word” tariffs into effect? Since he has no idea how tariffs, business, the economy, interest rates, inflation, etc., but most particularly CASINOs work, he will put them into effect IMMEDIATELY on January 20, 2025, and then blame President Biden, VP Harris, Jack Smith, Nancy Pelosi, (mainly anyone on his extensive enemies list) for the resultant rise in prices and crash in the stock market, economy, etc. He doesn’t admit he is wrong, he doesn’t change his mind, he doesn’t know WTF he is doing, now nor in 2016 when the stupid people put him into the residency.
On a separate note. Did any of you watch Big Bang Theory? (I mainly watch comedies if I watch tv) The main character Sheldon was a genius but he had the mental stability and understanding of a young child. He had an enemies list. Once you were on it, from his infancy to current day, you had to first figure out what you did wrong, and then try to make whatever atonement was necessary to get off the list. At least Sheldon let people get off his enemies list. Orange tyrant just intends to shoot his enemies or at the very least lock them up. It’s a shameful justice system we have. He should have been locked up by Jack Smith long, long ago but now Jack Smith is probably fearing for very his life when tyrant retaliates.
“Yes, tariffs can be lifted in six months, 18 months – or never, all dependent on someone else’s priorities.”
Someone else = a transactional, grifting somebody? For the life of me, I can’t come up with a name……..