You know how you’re always being told to never rely on early results as a predictor of final outcomes? Well we passed that stage with the Georgia runoff elections with dizzying speed. Let’s take a look at how this remarkable day unfolded.
The first indicators I saw were from Dave Wasserman, U.S. House editor of the nonpartisan organisation, The Cook Report. He was analysing trends and posting them to Twitter.
What we saw in 2018: plenty of Trump voters just won't turn out without Trump on the ballot. Are we seeing history repeat itself tonight? So far, yes.
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) January 6, 2021
So that was good news.
Oconee Co. (outside Athens) looks fully reported:
Perdue +37.0
Loeffler +35.6Trump (Nov.) +33.5
Perdue (Nov.) +38.3Plenty of Biden/Perdue voters here in Nov., and Perdue couldn't match his Nov. margins.
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) January 6, 2021
The other trend emerging was that turnout in notably republican counties was down to 83-88% against November turnout which sounds a lot until you look at the blue counties…
The first heavily Dem rural county, Macon Co., is fully reporting:
Ossoff: +25.0
Warnock: +25.6Biden (Nov.): +21.3
And turnout is at 91.8% of November levels. Possibly the single best piece of data for the Dems yet.
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) January 6, 2021
He added that Macon County is 61% black but even so, 91.8% of November turnout is pretty high for runoff elections. So how were other counties doing?
Rockdale Co. (SE Atlanta suburbs) is at 90.7% of November turnout:
Warnock +45.2
Ossoff +44.8Biden (Nov.) +40.0
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) January 6, 2021
Tiny, rural Randolph Co., GA (59% Black) is at *97%* of its November turnout. It's going for Warnock by 13.2 pts and Ossoff by 12.8 after going for Biden by 9.2 pts in November.
This is a clear pattern now.
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) January 6, 2021
Wow! 97%! No wonder Wasserman was using astericks to highlight the number.
Even in mid-sized counties, where results were much closer, both Dems were pushing their way to the front.
Baldwin Co. (Milledgeville, GA) is at 91.7% of its November turnout:
Warnock +4.0
Ossoff +3.6Biden (Nov.) +1.3
Another great performance for Dems in a mid-sized, racially polarized county.
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) January 6, 2021
Washington Post reported that preliminary exit polling found:
Both Republican Senate candidates have support from more than 9 in 10 voters who backed [LOSER] Trump in November, while they each win more than 8 in 10 conservatives and White evangelical Protestants. But Democratic candidates show similar strength among their key groups, with both Warnock and Ossoff winning well over 9 in 10 voters who backed [WINNER] Biden in November, as well as about 9 in 10 Black voters.
That was very good news.
About an hour ago, Republicans badly needed a Dem letdown in the outer suburban ATL ring.
But, there's no sign of that happening; as more votes have come in the pattern of GOP underperformance has looked even more consistent.
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) January 6, 2021
GOP underperformance and Dem overperformance finally led to the first big announcement:
Business Insider Calls GA Race For Warnock Against Loeffler!
Washington Post followed with their runoff announcement:
Fan-bloody-tastic!
Among my favourite responses to Senator Warnock’s runoff win were these:
Fun Fact: Kelly Loeffler has won the exact same number of US Senate races as Martha McSally has
— Jeff Timmer (@jefftimmer) January 6, 2021
I'm starting to think maybe people don't like it when you add to your considerable fortune by betting they will die. pic.twitter.com/spiK7eHQzf
— Isa-Lee Wolf (@IsaLeeWolf) January 6, 2021
As soon as vote is certifiedm he can be sworn in.
— Juli armstrong (@Juliarmstrong4) January 6, 2021
Gotta love the forward thinking here from Rhonda and my dear friend, Juli!
It’s all fun and games till you suppress your own vote
— BEAUTIFUL GAME (@pablo_alejandro) January 6, 2021
Well said, Pablo!
But for me, this was the most moving of all.
NEW: Rev. Raphael Warnock on his mother: "The other day, because this is America, the 82-year-old hands that used to pick somebody else's cotton went to the polls and picked her youngest son to be a United States senator." https://t.co/ocEFR2PyFH pic.twitter.com/eMMs2bjBz3
— ABC News (@ABC) January 6, 2021
Then all eyes turned to the other runoff — could Ossoff make it a clean sweep?
.@Ossoff takes the #GASenate lead! Today’s the 4th anniversary of when he announced for Congress. One of his volunteers was a mom whose son was killed by a racist gunman… now she is a Congresswoman, @RepLucyMcBath! #Georgia pic.twitter.com/NwrG513OMS
— Christine Pelosi (@sfpelosi) January 6, 2021
Ossoff has taken the lead by 3,560.
— Mueller, She Wrote (@MuellerSheWrote) January 6, 2021
and counting…
NBC News: Jon Ossoff is now leading Perdue by 9,527 votes. @NBCNews
— Kyle Griffin (@kylegriffin1) January 6, 2021
still counting…
Latest numbers for Ossoff in Dekalb County. They’re looking… good. pic.twitter.com/imJUW3b8g2
— Ellie Gellard (@BevaniteEllie) January 6, 2021
That’s a difference of 12,806.
It began to feel like the Fates were finally looking in our direction.
I'm not sure people have fully internalized that, if elected, Jon Ossoff would be the youngest Democratic senator since…Joe Biden.
— Gabriel Debenedetti (@gdebenedetti) January 6, 2021
A Black pastor who preaches from the pulpit of the Rev. Martin Luther King Jr’s spiritual home, and a young Jewish documentarian who was mentored by Rep. John Lewis, are winning the Senate seats from Georgia. "The arc of the moral universe is long, but it bends toward justice.”
— John Nichols (@NicholsUprising) January 6, 2021
Rev. Warnock was Congressman John Lewis's pastor. Ossoff was Lewis's intern. And somewhere, somehow both near and far, I have to think that Rep. Lewis is saying, "Well done."
— Fred Smith (@fredosmithjr) January 6, 2021
Amen to that.
This morning Jon Ossoff leads David Purdue by 17,025 votes in Georgia — a margin even greater than Biden’s win over Trump in the November election. Several outlets have already called the second runoff for Jon Ossoff. His lead has increased to 0.4% which is under the recount threshold of 0.5% but there are still votes being counted, most notably in blue counties.
Even if there is a runoff recount, a 17,000+ vote lead is going to be next to impossible for Perdue to overcome. The most missed votes that recounts generally find are a few hundred and they’re likely to go to Ossoff anyway, just as they did to Biden in the two presidential recounts Georgia held.
Reactions to Ossoff’s projected runoff win include this advice to Perdue from the three brothers at MeidasTouch.com:
Change your Twitter handle and pack your shit https://t.co/cZPHGMxrZ6
— MeidasTouch.com (@MeidasTouch) January 6, 2021
From the irrepressible Ted Lieu:
WINNERS:
Ossoff
Warnock
The American people
Puppies
WindmillsLOSERS:@realDonaldTrump @DonaldJTrumpJr@EricTrump@ivankatrump
Vladimir Putin https://t.co/mstjOmuWcp— Ted Lieu (@tedlieu) January 6, 2021
The wonderful Katie Porter:
Say it with me: Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell.
— Katie Porter (@katieporteroc) January 6, 2021
So many were saying it with her, it was trending on Twitter!
Dr Jack Brown’s sentiments also resonated far and wide:
After four years, it feels so fucking good to finally breathe again.
— Dr. Jack Brown (@DrGJackBrown) January 6, 2021
At last, the future we see holds the promise of compassion, kindness and goodness.
What happened tonight in Georgia – and the way it happened – is the ending to the Trump Era that we deserved.
Now there’s a chance to do some real good that can last for generations.
— Jon Favreau (@jonfavs) January 6, 2021
Let the good times roll! As Bernice King said, “This is the dawning of a new day.”
The last word goes to the incoming Senate Majority Leader:
Buckle up!
— Chuck Schumer (@SenSchumer) January 6, 2021
Nice article. I’ve enjoyed it.
That’s definitely the aim: write honest, accurate stories my readers will enjoy! Among other positives, 2021 should be about spreading more joy in the world. We’re all desperately under quota after suffering through the last 4 years.
The Parole Board is cutting America loose in a few days. Plenty of reason to be positive after that.
A well-deserved victory lap!
This was a joy to write – and there’s more to come!
Excellent wrap up of both of these exciting races, Michelle.
I’ve not been so excited about election results since Biden-Harris in 2020 and the US House races in 2018!
So, Mitch…think maybe you should have handed over that $2000 after all? But yeah, this one’s done. Georgia has stepped into the 21st Century with this pair of runoffs. Much love from your neighbor in TN!
Wonder which country the trumps will broadcast from? U know. Those run by corrupt dictators that never hand over criminals for prosecution. Fun to watch moscow mitch mumble his way through his attempt to wash his hands of the cult HE created. Can’t wsit for Kamala to stride in to do a thumbs up or down. Yes, Georgia, there is a Santa Claus thanks to you. Turns out her real name is Stacey, & she loves the redeyes of the racist republikans. Happy phucking new year donald.