Robbing Peter to pay Paul, There are so many popular phrases for it, or feast me to famine you. The popular political equivalent is the Guns and Butter scenario. Basically, you only have so many resources available to make what you want. Basically, the more butter, the fewer cannons. To quote the late, great PJ O’Rourke, The ultimate goal being Howitzers being made by cows.
But the concept itself is both simple and irrefutable. No matter what you’re talking about, there is only a finite amount of it to go around. The ultimate example of this concept is the stock market. There are only so many shares available on the market at any given time. Therefore, if one stock goes up, then another stock must go down. it’s that simple.
I know, I know. You guys and gals could give a sh*t less about cows and howitzers, or stock prices. But you all should know me well enough by now. If nothing else, there is a method to my madness.
Which leads us to politics, the one thing we all give a sh*t about. So, here we go. Just like howitzers, cows, and stocks, there are only so many votes to go around. And that’s where national and swing state polls play the part of the stock market. They try to portray where the votes at any particular moment are going, who is up, and who is down.
And right now, if the polls were the stock market, they’re trending, and trending heavily. If you’re a Democrat, you’re buying stock in the Harris-Walz campaign like a bastard maniac, wanting your political capital to ride the wave. And if you’re a Republican, you’re between a rock and a hard place, trying to decide whether or not to sell, while there’s still some value left, or buy like hell to try to stabilize the price, and stop the bleeding.
Which brings us back to the same old adage. Rob Peter to pay Paul. Feast you to famine me. There are only so many votes to go around, so how do you break the trend and stabilize the big board again?
Well, if you’re a Democrat, you don’t do a goddamned thing! You’re already riding the wave, becoming gazillionaires like the Game Stop bandits. Just keep infusing enough capital to keep the tide rising.
But if you’re Trump or the Republicans, then you have to do something to stop the bleeding. And the only way you can do that, especially in the short term, is to pull some stunt to make your stock look more attractive to the investors out there. In this case the voters.
Which if you’re the GOP, you need to do most riki-tik. Because right now the Democrats have the wind in their sails, and an as expected knockout convention next week could put a jet stream in their sails, followed by Trump’s sentencing a month later, and early voting the week after that, the window is rapidly closing. They have to come up with something, and quickly.
The problem is, what? J.D. Vance is literally a political imbecile. I swear to God, when this ass gasket takes a step with his left foot, he literally has no idea of that he’s going to do with his right foot. And Trump is a worn out one-trick-pony that should have been consigned to the GOP ash heap four years ago, after his loss. Or at the very least two years ago when he personally engineered the Biden midterm debacle. But the GOP tied their cart to Trump’s tired old horse, and now he’s standing still and wheezing down the backstretch.
Believe it or not, I try to be both fair and analytical. But at this point I don’t see any rational way out of this for the GOP. The GOP sold their souls to the devil, and now the check is due. The Democrats have an inspirational, positive, joyful forward looking message, while the GOP wants to take us back to the ’50’s. The 1850’s that is. My personal opinion is that if something doesn’t change soon, I’m starting to think that this will be a repeat of 2008. Mainly that once the polls close in Hawaii at about 10 PM PST, the networks will be ready to pronounce Kamala Harris as the 47th President of the United States. It just has that 2008 feel.
I thank you for the privilege of your time.
It also feels like 1960 and JFK. I was only seven but I remember the adults were all aglow and a tither, like we see now. It, too, was a contrast election and that awful Mr. Nixon came across as evil while that nice Irishman, Mr. Kennedy, was so cool. I do remember it well, on the black and white TV screen.
Me too. My family were Kennedy Dems. So were the nuns,at my high school.
I agree with you lots murf, but not on this. votes are not a zero sum game. there are millions of non voters out there. Texas is not a red state, it is a non voting state. there are lots of voters to go around. it is the motivation that is important. trumps voters are baked in. Harris needs to get people off their seats and get out to vote.
I’ve got my finger’s crossed hoping that a half-century later we will see a political version of the 1973 Belmont Stakes. That year in the first two legs of the Triple Crown Sham, a truly great racehorse in his own right was a close second to Secretariat although to be fair to the latter we didn’t know until afterwards that Secretariat had developed a huge abscess in his mouth and wasn’t eating so therefore couldn’t train the way he should have. Still, while Secretariat set records in both the Derby and Preakness, Sham also broke the prior records. By all indications, Sham was better suited for the 1 1/2 mile Belmont, the longest stakes race any horses run in this country. To most Secretariat’s lineage suggested he was a “speed horse” and simply not capable of running the Belmont at the speed of the earlier races – that he’d fade in the final quarter mile if he tried to keep up with Sham.
Both broke from the gate well and after some initial manuvering were taking control of the race as they entered the first turn. By the time they hit the backstretch it had effectively turned into a match race between the two of them. Those rooting for Secretariat were aghast because he ALWAYS lagged well behind and came on with a strong kick in the latter stages of his races. Most were sure he’d gone out WAY too fast and would be “done” by the end of the backstretch. Sham’s trainer and fans were all smiles. The thing is, if instead of the movie version you watch the actual race early in the backstretch Secretariat got his head out front. Right after in what seemed like the blink of an eye he had over a length on Sham. No one realized it at the time but it was over right then and there. Sham was done. Oh, he hung in there in what seemed like striking distance going into the turn but HE was the one who was done. Both horses had left the others in the dust.
During the second turn Secretariat’s lead steadily increased and by the time he hit the home stretch he was so far out in front he could have slowed to a trot and still won. Both horses set a record for the first half of the race (six furlongs or 3/4s of a mile) but in the SECOND six furlongs, that final 3/4s of a mile Secretariat only fell off around four seconds from that record setting first half of the race! Yes, other horses that had gone out slower had gas in the tank for their own homestretch runs but they too ran the second of the race slower. It’s just what happens even for horses bred more for endurance.
Secretariat increased his lead with every stride THROUGH the finish line and kept running hard. He wouldn’t ease off for another entire furlong and no horse has ever been clocked running 1 5/8ths miles as fast. As for Sham, that first half of the race turned out to be what was expected would happen to Secretariat. He’d spent himself trying to keep up, and faded to LAST place. Well behind not just Secretariat but the other horses too.
No one could believe it as it all unfolded, and a half-century later we still look back and marvel at one of the greatest performances any athlete has ever given.
Harris is poised by events and the upcoming schedule to do something similar if she keeps doing things right and Trump keeps doing what he’s been doing. We are in that moment of the 1973 Belmont backstretch where Secretariat/Harris is in front by a head, and making that almost instantaneous move to being out in front by a lenghth. Where people are looking and saying ‘am I seeing what it looks like I’m seeing?’ Now, as you say next week is the convention and try as he will Trump won’t be able to blunt Harris getting several lengths out in front.
Then comes September and Trump’s court stuff. I’ll believe his sentencing will take place on the 18th when it happens that day (if it doesn’t get continued) but I’m pretty sure on the 16th his request to have his NY convcictions on all those felonies thrown out. Also, we might see some court action in judge Chutkan’s courtoom in DC and even without an actual hearing the filings from Jack Smith aren’t going to be good for Trump. Then there’s the debate set for Sept. 10. At this point I think it’s a coin flip on whether Trump will show up (that’s a longer thing to talk about) but either way it’s bad for him. Harris will wipe the floor with him if he does, and if he chicken’s out it will be just as bad if not worse for him.
Then as you say early voting starts. I suspect polling will show Harris leading both nationally and in crucial swing states and IF as some think might happen GA and NC have Harris out front, even if only within the margin of error and Trump only leading in TX and FL within the margin of error (possible) not just Trump but the entire GOP will be in meltdown and if you think Trump already is looking like a loser you ain’t seen nothing yet!
We will still need to run out the whole thing as hard as we can and overwhelm the cheating Team Trump already has set up to go. But while I’m trying to fight off dreams of Harris doing what Secretariat did it’s hard not to hope we’ll see this election play out the same way. With Harris, like Secretariat increasing her lead right through and past the finish line (election day and ready to deal with and win court challenges) and Trump, like Sham way the hell back and LOSING ground with every step.
You and I won’t have used up all our luck and fantasies by seeing our Cubbies win the World Series this year. Part of me will always wonder if Trump’s improbable win in 2016 was payback. If so I’d trade that World Series win in a heartbeat. Hell, I’d already consigned myself to the notion that like so many other Cubs fans I’d die without ever seeing them in the Series, much less winning it. I’d take continued suffering as a Cubs fan over the suffering of being an American in the era of Trump any day of the week and twice on Sunday!
Thanks for the reminder Denis…none of us, after listening to the ‘experts’, expected Secretariat to win much less look like a run away train. You’re onto something. This horse is picking up speed not slowing down. The other candidate looks and whines like Eyeore the chronically negative donkey from Winnie the Pooh. Must be hell to inherit 400 million dollars.
Murphster, I like what you wrote, “if you’re a Democrat, you’re buying stock in the Harris-Walz campaign like a bastard maniac, wanting your political capital to ride the wave. And if you’re a Republican, you’re between a rock and a hard place, trying to decide whether or not to sell, while there’s still some value left…”
In the case of Harris, “buying stock” means giving campaign contributions to her primarily through Act Blue. But in the case of Trump that can mean actually buying and holding stock in his media company, stock symbol DJT.
As I’ve explained in prior comments here, I have been tracking DJT for several weeks, along with the rest of my diversified portfolio, just out of curiosity. I don’t own any DJT stock, God forbid, but I obtain considerable enjoyment in seeing his stock tank.
As I have explained previously, I have noticed that the performance of DJT is diametrically opposed to the rest of the stock market, and I have explained why. A dip in the general stock market is seen as a ray of hope for Trump’s investors that it will reflect poorly on the current administration and therefore Trump will win, so they buy, and the DJT stock rises a bit in value on those increasingly rare days. However, on the majority of days, the general stock market is doing well, which puts the DJT stock into the toilet, more and more with panic selling.
But yesterday, I saw what I think is a sea change in the behavior of Trump’s DJT investors. For the first time since I have been tracking the DJT stock it was down EVEN THOUGH THE GENERAL STOCK WAS ALSO DOWN A BIT TEMPORARILY. This is the very first time I have seen that happen!
Here’s what I think it means. I think it has finally dawned on Trump’s rubes that Trump really is going to lose, and that a temporary dip in the stock market no longer signifies that he can win. They are demoralized. I say, it’s about time!
I suspect that this marks that from here on out it’s going to be a more consistent downward spiral for DJT.
Trump as usual, is his most deadly weapon against winning in November, but with a collapse in the whole GOP/Trump snake pit possible with a REALLY BAD hit from a DO-or-DIE debate that flattens Trump’s miss-managed history of anything political … The courts may make a nuclear pronouncement of a “Totally failed candidate”, no longer capable of being elected as a president, is NOW being scheduled for immediate reporting to one of his truly earned courts of final freedoms being snatched away from Trump’s short fingers … ALL to occur the day after Kamala receives her go-ahead as the newest and one of the best presidents we have had …
Trump can pound sand, what a freaking waste of community Oxygen …
There is definitely a resemblance to Obama in 2008. Both he and Kampala project a sense of HOPE. Hope that things will.get better. Hope in the belief that we can improve economically and educationally. Hope that love beats hate, and that tolerance is stronger than racism, sexism, and religion bigotry. Hope that the millions of quiet Christians, the ones who volunteer for food banks and public schools, will.finally stand up.and say “No more” to the ones who see heaven as a,zero sum game.
HOPE is something we lost Time to bring it back.