Things could have been even worse. It is true. Coming into the election, the Democrats controlled the White House and the U.S. Senate. Donald Trump and the GOP blasted through with a resounding near five million popular vote win in the presidency and a sweep of all close senate races, a win unseen since Barack Obama brought hope and change in 2008 and the Democrats swept 60 Senators into office. Given the reality, the Republicans by any measure should have stretched their five seat lead in the House to thirty, even forty. Instead, somewhat shockingly – all things considered, the Republicans will control the House by the barest of margins, again. This is what stands for good news nowadays.
But boy does it matter. There is nothing to indicate that the GOP will function with any more Congressional efficiency or discipline than it ever has. Thus, for that slim GOP majority in the House to get much done they will need to deal and compromise with Democrats. Take that good news and run with it. See you in two years.
All bills that even touch on money must begin in the House of Representatives – though there are some cute ways to make it only “look” like the bill began in the House. Still, the House is critical when it comes to spending the money needed to get things done. It is also the hardest for leadership to manage, ask Kevin McCarthy. So it stands to reason that Trump and the GOP cannot get too “out there” on any of the massive bills required to overhaul immigration and trade. The reality is starting to hit home among red people. A report from Punchbowl News states according to Rawstory:
“Assuming Republicans win the House, their best-case vote total is roughly in line with the current margins for the 118th Congress. In that span, Democrats needed to bail out Republicans on every single must-pass bill, such as government funding and debt limit hikes. The House GOP Conference will act differently with Trump in the White House. But as long as the filibuster stays in place or legislation isn’t considered under reconciliation, then compromise will be needed at some point, which is when House Democrats come in.”
Hold up because there are some key assumptions in there and this isn’t a time to assume a thing. Do you see any reason that the Senate will keep the fillibuster in place? Momentarily set aside the fact that it is the single stupidest, most anti-democratic rule ever conceived, and that the Senate Democrats should have gotten rid of it last time knowing that this would come around, do you see anything indicating that the GOP in its staid conservatism would not rush to toss it all aside? No?
Right. It will almost surely go. But they will keep something that looks similar enough that it won’t just turn into a majority vote in both houses.The Senate will not stand for looking too “crazed Housish” and will do something to keep its self-importance in place, that’s bipartisan for damn sure. In the end, it means that the House will require some Democratic support on bills.
Of course, with the new administration, one that almost giggles about your traditional constitutional process, there is always the question as to how much they will even look to Congress to do anything. Yes, there will likely always be some pro forma nod toward Constitutional norms, but it may just be a nod, no more. Still.
It is almost amazing that the GOP doesn’t have a thirty to forty seat lead in the House. In a time when one truly doesn’t know if Washington will function with any semblance of what we all considered “normal” it is still best – and it’s not even close – to have things coming down to 50-50 as much as possible.
Wonders never cease. Even though the American electorate firmly ushered in Trump 2.0 with a senate on the side, it still utterly rejected “House GOP Extra Crispy.” It is something. So, good.
God Bless: I can be reached at [email protected] and @JasonMiciak
🤨😋 We don’t have to wait until 2026 to start seeing major electoral battles. I am assuming that Gov. Hochul of NY has already decided who she will appoint to fill Elise Stefanik’s seat in Congress. Speaker Johnson probably warned Trump that appointing Stefanik to be UN Ambassador could cause him to lose some power. Filling vacant seats is up to the state, not the King!! Some of the fight will depend on exactly when Stefanik resigns. We are in the second session of the 118th Congress. The rules for vacancies could change a bit once we are in the first session of the 119th Congress…maybe Johnson could try to coup the vacancy rules and take Hochul out of the process. Then, BOOM! The first Constitutional crisis of Trump’s second administration!! Difficult, yet somehow delicious as the bull destroys his own china shop!! 🐂☄️
So Notwithstanding I am a Montrealer, I live and work in Potsdam, NY and my congressperson is, yup, the Elise-meister. The Villages of Potsdam, with Clarkson and SUNY-Potsdam, a music (Crane) and Arts-predominant school, and Canton (same two types of Universities) are very blue islands in a massive sea of upstate love of Trump and Elise, but would I EVER be happy to have a Democratic Congressperson!!! That would just be a short-lived two year joy!!!!
The GQP will throw out the rule book and do whatever they want. That’s what tyrant’s first residency was and while the so called Supreme Court had not yet given him permission to do everything he wants and this time he doesn’t have bumbling idiots surrounding him (idiots, just not bumbling), nothing will matter. He will change or break every rule to get what he wants. He is already trying it way before he has been sworn in. How can he be sworn in? He first of all doesn’t take the oath of office seriously, he thinks the constitution doesn’t apply to him, he is a known felon, grifter, thief, etc. and and I think the Bible will start on fire if he gets within 25 feet of it. I just don’t feel too hopeful about what is to come. I just feel that with any majority, no matter how slim, he will do everything he intends to do with the creators of project 2025 pushing him to do so. Or Vance and maga mike once they push the insane wannabe king aside and take over. The useful idiot was only useful to get them into full power, legally or not.
Sadly, you speak truth, Carol. Trump couldn’t care one whit for law, constitution, or anything even resembling or having a whiff of a norm.