We’ve long known there was a hard-core base of MAGAs who for whatever reason will support him no matter what. However being less than a third of the conservative/GOP base they aren’t enough to win general elections. That’s why Evangelical’s (almost all white ones) has been so crucial to Trump (and the GOP overall) in his three elections. Yes, some Evangelicals are also pure MAGA but a surprising number have been “only” MAGA-ish. So I’m not surprised that Trump’s dropping approval ratings have led to less Evangelical support. What’s surprised me is how much it’s dropped in the past year.
Trump’s Evangelical base might be ‘cracking’, at least if reporting from Newsweek is accurate. This is a crucial voting bloc for Trump and therefore the entire GOP. Whether they like it or not every GOPer on the ballot has the Trump Anchor hanging around their neck so they need Evangelical support, especially coming out to vote or more of them will lose in November than is already projected. Keep in mind that in 2016 Trump carried 80 percent of the Evangelical vote. In 2020 it dipped a bit (regardless of his beliefs even these goobers knew Joe Biden was a good and decent man) to 76 percent, then (incredibly until you factor in sexism and racism – which explains it) to 82 percent in 2024. Well, it isn’t 2024 with Trump running against not just a woman but a black one. Hell it’s not even 2025 and my how things have changed:
Trump’s approval rating among evangelical voters fell to 52 percent in the latest Reuters/Ipsos poll, which surveyed 4,531 adults nationwide from June 3-8, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points. That marks a downward trajectory from August 2025, when his approval rating among evangelical Americans was 61 percent, according to the poll.
That’s a NINE point drop in support after Trump had already lost plenty with this group. (I’ll get to that) I call that ouch, even though Trump remains (for now) in positive territory with Evangelicals, if only barely. And don’t forget that 82% of the Evangelical vote in 2024. I’d have to check but in the early months of 2025 and his second term Trump was polling around 80 percent with this group. Those days are gone! Barely above 60 ten months ago means in less than a year Trump dropped twenty freaking points with Evangelicals. Worse for him (and the GOP) he’s still bleeding and the two issues that seem to be at the heart of it aren’t going to change and make things better.
Also, if you paid attention this is no fly-by-night outlier polling outfit. Reuters/Ispos is highly rated and usually gets it right. The size of their sample is larger than normal which reinforces the notion they have good data. As I said earlier there are two issues that seem to account for Trump’s continued drop in support this year. Let’s start with the first one as Newsweek points out while the number is accurate we shouldn’t assume why:
Fifty-four percent of evangelical respondents said they do not believe Trump’s use of the military in Iran is “in line with their understanding of Christianity,” compared to 41 percent who said it was.
Jacob Neiheisel, a political science professor at the University at Buffalo, told Newsweek that the question, as posed, “can admit of multiple interpretations” and that some evangelicals may want to see more aggressive involvement.
“It is possible that a non-trivial number of evangelicals want the administration to prosecute the war in Iran even more aggressively,” he said.
Thinking about it perhaps Neiheisel is on to something. Whether it’s MAGA goobers, including and especially the ‘Meal Team Six’ fatasses who dress up in tactical gear or more subdued ‘gods, guns and no gays’ MAGAs it makes sense a portion of them are upset Trump hasn’t sent ground troops into Iran. LARGE numbers of ground troops I must add. How many think that way is something pollsters should take a look at. However Trump’s own internal polling probably has done so and my bet is that while they might find lots of people might like it in theory, they have enough working brain cells left to know how disastrous it would be. Meanwhile they are paying through the nose at the gas pump (and for diesel on the farm) and at the grocery store. All because of the war which they, like us have good reason to believe Trump should never have gotten us in to.
The other main issue for Evangelicals is intriguing. Surprisingly so. Perhaps somewhere before they went off the deep end into the Trump cesspool they recall reading their bibles and what Jesus actually taught. Yep, it turns out they don’t like Trump’s immigration policies. I know. I’m stunned by that too but the numbers are what they are. After noting that Black Evangelicals have quite different attitudes on various issues Newsweek says this:
Additionally, 51 percent said the administration’s hardline immigration approach was not in line with their religious values.
Wow, if only by a percentage point Trump is underwater with this group over the awful and too often inhumane treatment of immigrants he and the rest of the GOP have a bigass land mine sitting out there between now and the midterms. Stephen Miller still gets too much time with Trump and Markwayne Mullin’s already ham-handed approach will almost certainly become more so. AND at a time when the GOP desperately needs Trump to lighten the hell up. At least until after November!
I’m not about to say the scales have fallen from Evangelical’s eyes but they clearly have their doubts about Trump. As the linked article notes why this is such a concern in the GOP is that too many of these people won’t vote. As I so often say while I’d love for a big chunk of these folks to become normal and rational again, and weigh multiple issues objectively. In the privacy of a voting booth they’d often find themselves voting for Democrats. However while I dream crazy dreams (i.e. the Cubs getting to the World Series TWICE in my lifetime, or better still Trump dying in prison years from now, alone and so dejected he just gives up) I still have both feet in the real world.
What we CAN reasonably hope is that ten, or even as little as five percent of Evangelicals either vote third Party or don’t vote at all. It’s not quite as good as them voting for Democrats but it’s enough to make the difference in a LOT of House and even some Senate races. IF things play out this way I’m sure post election polls will dig into this. If these numbers hold, or (dare we hope) get worse for Trump and the GOP enough GOPers with plenty of cash in their PACS will do their own polling. If it confirms what the public polling says it means there won’t be mere cracks in the Evangelical base but chasms.
AND between it and the GOP. Now I’ll fantasize: by this time next year the finger pointing and recriminations will rip apart the unholy marriage of the religious right and the GOP. Barry Goldwater predicted exactly what would happen if what he deemed the religious crazies got control of the Party and it’s been worse than he (and the rest of us) feared. The ONLY reason so many Republicans in statehouses and Congress have put up with the crazy Evangelicals is they could be counted on when it came time to vote. I suspect a LOT of them are sick and tired of meeting these zealot’s purity tests and other demands.
Yes, it’s a crazy dream but I can’t help myself. Especially seeing this new polling data.
Friends, I know everyone begs you for money. I promise, among all those asking for spare change, we are the smallest and the hardest working. We’re a group of old, disabled people, except for one writer in his mid-50s. The rest of us are in our sixties and seventies, and this is a labor of love. All we’re asking for is the chance to keep telling the truth about Trump and help ensure democracy survives. If you can help, please do. Thank you. Ursula
They’ve discovered their Bible has these things called ‘The Ten Commandments’ and have now realized we’re all supposed to follow them.
And Dimwit Donny doesn’t.
Specially with that one about lying.
Let’s take a look at those ten commandments that are sooooooo precious to the Evangelicals:
1. You shall have no other gods before Me.
Well, Trump demands not just total loyalty to but continual praise (worship) OF him so that’s a bigly FAIL
2. You shall not make for yourself a carved image.
Note the title pic. That (fake) gold statue and others like it has been a true attraction at CPAC and other conservative events where these goobers show up in droves. Then there’s the artist’s renderings and his NFTs, trading cards etc. depicting him as their Jeebus or even God the Almighty. Another bigly FAIL
3. You shall not take the name of the Lord your God in vain.
Trump’s been caught doing exactly that countless times. He’s also seen his people do so and not called them out on it. Another bigly FAIL
4. Remember the Sabbath day, to keep it holy.
Trump doesn’t go to church. Ok, in the modern age I can see why any President would avoid doing so given the security logistics but others have had small services at the WH or other locations where they happen to be on Sunday. Oh, and tomorrow Trump won’t be taking part in anything a normal person or even Evangelical zealot would consider a church service. But he WILL be attending his version of gladiator games, those UFC fights on the WH lawn tomorrow which happens to be a Sunday! Another bigly FAIL
5. Honor your father and your mother.
He treated his mom like shit and took advantage of his father’s own Alzheimers to grab control of the Trump org. and f**k over all of his family members. Another FAIL
6. You shall not murder.
This is truly awful. There’s the ‘boat strikes’ we’ve read about which are extrajudicial executions. Murder based on ‘suspected’ drug running which in most cases wasn’t even if the boats carried contraband, drugs destined for the U.S.! His mis-management of Covid to try and protect his Presidency cost at least a half-million lives and it would take me an entire article to explain how the true number of deaths he caused is over a MILLION. He was told what he needed to know and how to mitigate the death toll and ignored it because he thought he’d take a political hit. Then there’s the second term and stopping aid programs including letting food to millions of starving people sit in warehouses. He knew countless people would die for lack of medicine and food that had been paid for and was ready for distribution and he didn’t care. I call that murder – both premeditated and intentionally cruel. Then there’s his immigration and ICE policy. And his illegal war with Iran. Trump is literally a mass murderer. Another bigly FAIL
7. You shall not commit adultery.
Grabbing pussies and bragging about it. Affairs we actually know (more than we want to – eewww!) about and no doubt countless more we don’t. Rape. Epstein. Need I go on? Another bigly FAIL
8. You shall not steal.
He has stolen all his life. It would take a series of articles to just scratch the surface and he’s doing so on steroids these days by abusing the power of the Presidency. Another bigly FAIL
9. You shall not bear false witness against your neighbor.
Trump lies almost as much as he breathes. Again, so much so it would take days to document it all. Another bigly FAIL
10. You shall not covet.
This can be answered with one word, a single name – Ivanka. Trump’s obsession with f**king his daughter is legendary. She’s not the only woman he’s coveted either. (Princess Dianna, Salma Hyack, etc. for starters) He’s coveted not general praise but titles and awards from military medals to the Nobel Prize. Again, the list is loooooooog and ever expanding. Another bigly FAIL
Any objective observer can see Trump violates every single commandment the Evangelicals claim should be the standard we all strive for. The only ‘law’ we need. Worse, he REVELS in his flaunting of those commandments! And so many self-professed Christians give HIM a pass!
When Concinnity brought up The Ten Commandments and specified “that one about lying,” and you invited us to take a look at all of them, I just knew that you were going to misrepresent the commandment that Concinnity was especially concerned with. I regret that I was right.
You stated the commandment correctly, but you then changed the wording in your commentary. You changed “bear false witness against someone” to “lie.” I have just Googled the difference; I learned that different religious traditions interpret this commandment differently. However, bearing false witness is a subset of lying. It is a lie to falsely tell your partner that he/she looks good in a certain outfit, attempting to help him/her feel good, but you are not bearing false witness. Here is the original meaning of the commandment to the Hebrews, although it may not matter except to originalists:
“In ancient Israel, there were no police forces, modern forensics, or DNA tests. Court cases depended entirely on the word of witnesses who spoke at the city gates. Giving a false report could easily result in an innocent person being wrongly punished, or even executed. Because of this, the literal Hebrew command (lo’ ta’aneh sheqer) specifically means “do not respond falsely” as a witness in a communal, legal setting.”
Your commentary might have borne more weight if you had at least given an example where Trump’s lie damaged someone else’s reputation or even his/her life. It is more difficult for us to see how Trump’s lies have hurt other people unless you cite a specific example where it happened.
Thank you, Denis.
That’s a technicality I doubt any kid growing up in any Christian denomination has ever been taught. Over time it quickly became don’t lie and as you note only religious scholars are schooled in the original Hebrew and meaning.
But to get to the point about the commandment applying as part of a legal matter yes, Trump is guilty. Either in depositions taken under oath or via signing off on legal representations his lawyers made in court he’s been adjudicated to have lied multiple times. About Stormy Daniels (and Karen McDougal), about E. Jean Carroll and the NY state business/financial fraud charges (34 counts) for example.
Oh, my, if only the faux Christian RW bloc were familiar enough with their Bibles as to recognize how far their beliefs and actions differ from Jesus’s teachings. Remember the story of the Bible Belt congregants complaining to their pastor after a service that his sermon that day sounded too much like liberal talking points? Or the firebrand RWNJ pastor who preached that it wouldn’t affect a parishioner’s place in heaven to shoot a Democrat?
Those whose support has been lost are where they are mostly because they’re upset over his unkept promises, and/or seeing the everyday result of his woefully ineffective handling of the war/economy/inflation/immigration/you name it. They still hate, but the Mango Messiah has shown himself to have feet of clay, and is no longer their chosen one…..