DeSantis Plunges To 10%, Lincoln Project Comically Piles On

Getting out soon when he’s still in second place (in most polls) would spare DeSantis the ignominy of sliding to third, fourth, or fifth place a la Walker and Harris. It’s one thing to try to beat Donald Trump in a primary and fail, it’s quite another to try to beat Vivek Ramaswamy and fail. If the governor bails out on a Walker-ish timetable, he can argue that he would have been the party’s nominee in a Trump-less primary but that it became clear once Trump was indicted that Republican voters would insist on renominating him to spite the Justice Department. That being so, it was pointless for the governor’s candidacy to continue.

He could even turn his withdrawal into an act of solidarity: “The only way to stop the corrupt DOJ from prosecuting Joe Biden’s political opponents is to show them that we won’t let them choose our nominee for us. I’m ending my campaign and endorsing Donald Trump because the rule of law should matter in this country.”

His decline in the polls is glaring and well known. The event at which he officially announced his candidacy was a comic disaster. (Or “DeSaster,” if you prefer.) He burned through so much of his war chest so quickly that he was forced to start laying off staffers within two months of entering the race. He’s “reset” his campaign something like 18 times already this summer. The splashiest content his operation has managed to produce was a bizarre bit of fascist-adjacent propaganda that featured a symbol of white supremacy.

No matter how doggedly he tries to retcon an early exit as something he did for altruistic reasons, it’ll be precisely as convincing as Pee Wee Herman tumbling off his bicycle and declaring, “I meant to do that.”

Which is to say, it’ll make him look more pathetic than he already does, particularly given the immense hype his candidacy generated initially. As formidable as Walker, Harris, and Cruz seemed when they ran for president, none of them approached how imposing DeSantis looked when he blew the roof off in Florida last November and soared into contention against Trump in early primary polling. If he quits, there’s no spin that’ll avert the perception that he underperformed to an embarrassing degree, an historic example of a politician who proved to be not ready for primetime.

There’s also nothing he’ll be able to say to Trump and his fans to regain their respect after doing so. Populists crave dominance and pugnacity; DeSantis exiting the race early to prevent an even more brutal beating would be tantamount to a boxer quitting on the stool after a rough first round. MAGA fans would mock him ruthlessly for having ever believed he could beat the champ, not relenting until he bends the knee and re-pledges his fealty at the convention.

By 2028, when he’ll have already been out of office as governor of Florida for two years, I expect many MAGA voters will view him roughly the way they now view Cruz—as an ally, sure, but a lackluster one who’s too much of a beta male to represent them and too treacherous to be trusted after opposing Trump once before. There’ll be a hot new thing in Republican politics by then too, possibly Sen. J.D. Vance or soon-to-be(?) Sen. Kari Lake, possibly newly minted politician Tucker Carlson. The party will almost certainly have moved on from DeSantis to even less likable, more sinister populist goblins.

“You have a moment,” Casey DeSantis reportedly told her husband in trying to persuade him to run for president this cycle. 2024 was Ron DeSantis’ moment. There’s no elegant exit from his current predicament that’ll turn 2028 into his moment instead. Jacksonville columnist Nate Monroe writes:

DeSantis can’t quit the race on that note and survive politically long-term. I think he has little choice but to fight on and do what he can to make a better impression before capitulating.