There are still indications that Democrats continue to be not only relevant but making gains – in some places, with some messages, and some people. It is hard to flip a seat in any election but the first ever Vietnamese American to be elected to Congress – Derek Tran, defeated incumbent Republican Michelle Steel in a red Orange County California race that was not only representative of this 50-50 country, but became one of the most costly House races in history. The win provides some hope for the Dems message going forward.
It also gives the Democrats an even greater opportunity to exert some muscle in a House that will stand close to 50-50. (It is maddening trying to get an accurate count with a couple of races that are still to call along with Republican House members appointed to executive positions. One can look here – to be told the lead will be “slim.” – Thanks.)
Tran had a unique and appropriate advantage in his district. His background as a son of immigrants played a key role according to the Los Angeles Times:
Tran will be the first Vietnamese American to represent a district that is home to Little Saigon and the largest population of people of Vietnamese descent outside of Vietnam.
California is different in that the mix of backgrounds looks like the U.N. And yet still, the race involved issues one is used to seeing in the 2024 race and thus a sign of a message going forward.
As Politico reports:
Tran centered his campaign on assailing the incumbent Republican for her previous support for a national abortion ban. Steel countered with attacks on Tran’s pre-campaign resume, including a handful of cases where he represented politically unsympathetic clients in wrongful termination lawsuits
Quite obviously, as it was called this late, the race demonstrated just how important it is for voters to come out. It took a few weeks to count every vote – something we’ve come to expect from California with races that are usually split among the battling parties. These are races in which provisional ballots, ballots from the military, and various other issues have to be worked out in the weeks after Election Day. As the L.A. Times also reported:
The race was the third-to-last to be called in the country. As Orange County and Los Angeles County counted mail ballots, Steel’s margin of victory shrank to 58 votes before Tran took the lead 11 days after the election. Tran was leading by 613 votes when Steel conceded Wednesday.
Getting back to the issue concerning the Republican lead and whether it will be “way too slim” or even “So absurdly slim as to have every vote but speaker at risk.” Worse, with all the cabinet appointments and still-outstanding races, there is no definitive number. It is currently at 220 for the Republicans and 214 for Democrats. But those figures likely do not factor in representatives that won and will be leaving for appointments – nor the remaining races that may go either way. And, JD Supra comes as close as anyone to describing the Republicans majority come January:
Some are concerned about President-elect Trump selecting too many lawmakers from the House for his Cabinet due to Republicans having a very slim majority in that body. Special elections will be held during 2025 (on dates directed by State law) to fill the seats of those House Members leaving to serve the new Administration.
So congratulations to Tran – the win is a big one, and expensive. Every single vote counts and this race demonstrates it as clearly as any. Oh, and every vote in the House will absolutely matter come January. Yes, Republicans will gain seats in the special elections. But traditionally, the first few months are the most productive of the term and thus those fights concerning fast-moving legislation might be fierce.
In terms of the meaning with respect to Democratic issues going forward? Well, in some areas they are good enough to flip seats. That is something.
God Bless: I can be reached at [email protected] and @JasonMiciak and on Blue Sky – the wonderful new place.
It turns out Trans rights were important.