Dem In Statistical Tie In District Trump Carried By 22 Points, Wait’ll He Finds Out

This is yet another milestone in a year which has so far been one for milestones for special elections and off-year elections. And it bodes extremely well for the 2026 midterm election less than one year from now. Democratic candidate Aftyn Behn is within two points, ergo a statistical tie, in a Tennessee U.S. House special election in a district which Trump carried by 22 points. He will shit a brick when he gets wind of this.

Hakeem Jeffries and House Democrats have been consistently widening their map of potential 2026 pickups. The Democrats have been telling anyone who would listen for months that districts Republicans carried by 20 points or more are in play for 2026.

Experts and Republicans scoffed because if seats that Republicans carried by more than twenty points were in play, it could result in a historic midterm election win for Democrats.

What is happening in the Tennessee special election is making it look like Democrats are right.

The special election is on Tuesday, and what happens in Tennessee could be a strong indicator of where the 2026 midterm election is heading.

A recent Emerson College Poll spelled out how close the Tennessee special election is:

• A new Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey of the special election for US Congress in Tennessee’s 7th district finds 48% of voters support Republican Matt Van Epps and 46% support Democrat Aftyn Behn. Two percent plan to vote for one of three third-party candidates on the ballot, and 5% are undecided. When undecided voters are asked which candidate they lean toward, Van Epps’ overall support increases to 49%, and Behn to 47%
• Those who report voting early break for Behn, 56% to 42%, whereas those who plan to vote on Election Day break for Van Epps, 51% to 39%. Voters under 40 are Behn’s strongest group, 64% of whom support her, while Van Epps’ vote increases with age, to 61% of those over 70.
• There is also a stark gender divide; men break for Van Epps by nine points, 51% to 42%, whereas women break for Behn by six, 50% to 44%.
• Behn and Van Epps each have a 47% favorable rating among voters, and a 41% unfavorable rating.
• 54% of women have a favorable view of Behn, compared to 41% of men, and 52% of men have a favorable view of Van Epps, and 42% of women have a favorable view of Van Epps.
• President Trump holds a 47% job approval rating among Tennessee 7th District voters, and a 49% disapproval rating.

Donald Trump is now a liability in a district that he won by 22 points just a little over a year ago.

Trump and Trumpism is becoming toxic. And bear in mind, Trump only won the election by 1.5%. If he had a lick of sense, he would look at that close call, be grateful that he wound up on the right side of the tight election and seek to reconcile with the people who didn’t vote for him. He would seek to be a president for all the people.

But that is dead last what Trump is doing. He’s gone out of his way to stir the pot of dissent and division and that is why these special elections and this past November 4th’s off-year election have been blowing up in his face. And now this one in Tennessee could blow up as well.

But even if it doesn’t, just the fact that there is a statistical tie in a deep red district and state like this is handwriting on the wall in neon. There is no “landslide” or “dissent.” There are massive demonstrations in the streets and lost elections. When will the GOP wake up? It’s a cinch that Trump never will.

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